Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 240857
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
357 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tuesday night)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

A cold front was over the far eastern zones and will move out of the
area this morning. Some wrap around moisture is expected this
afternoon/evening over the northern zones. Enough cooling occurs
aloft today that the atmosphere becomes unstable this
afternoon/evening. Convective temps are in the mid/upper 70s in the
north with 1500+ j/kg of mucape. Also the water vapor loop indicated
a weak upper trough over southern ALTA moving southeast. Northwest
flow aloft is expected for Sun night.

Similar event expected for Mon afternoon/evening with similar
mucapes of 1500 j/kg however may not reach convective temps. Will
keep low pops for Mon afternoon/evening.

Upper level trough over the northern BC coast will move across
central Canada Mon night and will send a cold front into the
northern Red River Valley Tue night. Concurrently increasing low
level moisture will make for more unstable mucapes (2500 j/kg) on
Tue afternoon/evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

The majority of the long term period will be under a NW flow pattern
aloft that brings low POPs for middle and latter half of the
week...before a SW ridge sets up on Sunday and provides a break to
the active pattern.  Temperatures will generally be in the upper 70s
for the second half of the work week and increase into the 80s for
the weekend.  The long wave pattern changes to a SW flow pattern for
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Storms confined to the far east and should clear the forecast area
in the next hour or two. BJI only TAF site with T potential during
that time frame. Mainly VFR CIGS from Red River eastward with SKC
behind. Drier air pushing in from the west along with light
mixing from the west. No guidance showing any fog in the am so did
not mention. OTWS VFR through the period.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Voelker



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