Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 281807
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
107 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHERE/IF T-STORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP. SFC OBS
SHOW A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND TO 25 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY WITH TEMPS
NR 80 AND DEW PTS 65-70 IN MUCH OF THE RRV AND E ND AND FAR NW MN.
A WEAK WIND SHIFT IS NOTED BUT MORE IN CNTRL ND ROLLA-CANDO AREA
AND INTO SW MANITOBA. CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A
WEAK WIND SHIFT DROPPING SOUTH THIS AFTN AND SOME STORMS FIRING
FARGO-DETROIT LAKES AREA 00Z OR SO. THAT HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL BUT YET TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE AS DEPICTED BY HRRR STILL AM
NOT SURE WILL OCCUR. TRENDED POPS THE WAY OF THE HRRR AND HOP WRF
MODELS WHICH SO THE FARGO-DTL CONVECTION.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE
IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS... THOUGH ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS HOUR IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT BRUSHES THE U.S. BORDER
ACROSS NORTHERN CAVALIER AND KITTSON COUNTIES AROUND 12Z. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORENOON THROUGHOUT THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES... SPREADING ACROSS
FAR NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...STARTING IN EAST CENTRAL ND FROM MID AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF AXIS INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXTENT AND SEVERITY
OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 80S IN SPOTS... THUS SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A DRIER...MORE STABLE H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUUNDAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME. WITH A WARM
H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FRM THEMID 80S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A VERY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
HEADING INTO THE START OF SEPTEMBER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY ON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH ACROSS CANADA. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY COULD FIRE A FEW STORMS OFF ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH OVER
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN WASH OUT WITHIN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN/RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY WED INTO THUR AS THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. DETAILS OUT AT THIS
RANGE ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

AVE HIGHS/LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S/LOW 50S DURING EARLY
SEPT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD SHOULD REACH THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S THROUGH THUR. WED AND POSSIBLY THUR LOOK TO BE WARMEST AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 25C. SO SOME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF STILL POINT TOWARD ACTIVITY NEAR
TVF/GFK BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ACTIVITY
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...MORE IN THE KBJI TO KFAR AREAS AROUND 00Z.
REGARDING TS...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NAM AND SREF ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BR DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT IT AT 5SM AROUND SUNRISE AT GFK/BJI/TVF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.