Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 051236
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS FOR THE MOST PART IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH PCPN OUTPUT
WITH WEAK SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND AND HELD PRETTY CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE.

TEMPERATURES LEVELING OFF/RISING FROM THE VALLEY WEST AS RETURN
FLOW/WARM ADVECTION INITIATES. MIXING TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
ALONG WITH SOLAR AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION. AFTER COLD START
SHOULD SEE MODEST RECOVERY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES FA TONIGHT. GFS HAS TRENDED DRIER
CLOSER TO ECMWF/GEM/NAM. GFS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH COLD ADVECTION
IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE WHEN COMPARED WITH NAM/ECMWF AND WILL
FOLLOW WITH THE LATER WHICH HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY. ONLY CATCH FOR MILD
TEMPERATURES MAY BE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT
WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO SHOULD SEE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINTAINED INHERITED POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS MODELS SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. WITH CLOUDS AND
WARMER COLUMN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ALSO HINGE ON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER. WITH MILDER START SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR MAYBE A
LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

NEXT WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM AND MAINTAIN SIMILAR POPS.

LONG WAVE PATTERN DE AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS MORE INTO EASTERN CANADA. LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST FLATTENS AND SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD AND BECOMES FASTER THOUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY FASTER OVER THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE RUNS. UPPER LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF THE AREA SUN AND REMAINS NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THU.

HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SUN...INCREASED A
DEGREE FOR MON AND INCREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CAVOK AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.