Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 181258
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUDS A BIT AS THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT FASTER CLOUDING
UP OF THE WESTERN CWA. A BAND OF RADAR RETURNS HAS ENTERED THE
WESTERN CWA BUT NOT MUCH AT THIS POINT HAS BEEN SEEN REACHING THE
GROUND. INCLUDED JUST A FLURRY MENTION BUT THINK THAT ACCUMULATING
SNOW CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST AND IF WE GET
ANY SNOW OF MENTION OR JUST FLURRIES.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER THE
MT/ND BORDER...AND THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT INTO THE
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH
WINDS AND MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
A DECENT BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL
WHERE THE RAP HAS SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW IS NOT TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER...SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
WEST WITH SOME FLURRIES GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AS
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OUT WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THAT ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT
THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN MN...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE INCREASING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNS OF PRECIP
MOVING IN WITH THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION FROM THE NAM SHOWING UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE ECMWF HAVING HARDLY ANYTHING...SO KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW. THE SREF SHOWS SOME FZRA PROBABILITIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TOP DOWN METHOD GIVES MOSTLY SNOW IN THE
NORTH WHERE POPS ARE LOCATED WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STAYING
MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTH WHERE CURRENTLY WE ARE GOING DRY. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
PUSHING 30 DEGREES AND LOWS STAYING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN LOW 20S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT BECOMING
MORE OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN...WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ALL SITES ARE VFR FOR THE TIME BEING BUT CLOUDS ARE MAKING A RUN
FOR THE FORECAST AREA BOTH FROM THE WEST AND FROM THE EAST. CLOUDS
ENTERING THE KDVL AREA ARE MID LEVEL...SO VFR WILL REMAIN FOR A
BIT LONGER. THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THEN SOME MVFR CIGS MOVING IN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE STRATUS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN MN...WHICH MAY IMPACT KBJI
LATER ON. BASED ON THE SPEED OF THE CLOUD DECK SOME MVFR CIGS
COULD ENTER KBJI AS SOON AS EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD
BE MVFR OR EVEN IFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD OR EXPECTED TO BRING VIS DOWN FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL STEADY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.