Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230859

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
359 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough from southern Alta
into western MT with several short waves rotating around the system.
Upper level system remains in the west most of the period but begins
to move out 12z Thu. Upper level ridge over the Great Lakes shifts
east through Tue. Thereafter upper ridge is knocked down with trough
moving across central and eastern Canada. Upper ridge rebuilds over
the Northern Plains Wed with approaching MT/Alta trough.

Showalters are negative over the eastern zones today. Right rear
quadrant of north-south upper level jet remains over the area today
and shifts east tonight. Precip today is expected to shift east
today with the 700 theta-e gradient shifting east. Precipitable
water better than one inch dries out today only to increase back
over an inch by Wed.

Showalters become negative again Tue with cooler air moving in

Coupled upper level jet is forecast for Wed. Low level jet will
support another round of rain on Wed/Wed night.

.LONG TERM...(Thurday through Sunday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Thursday through Sunday...The global models are in good general
agreement on a fairly active pattern through the end of the week and
into the weekend as southwesterly flow aloft continues. Timing of
precip will depend on weak shortwaves moving through the flow, which
none of the models handle well. Thus, will keep the blended POPs
with a chance for showers and thunderstorms much of the period. The
southwesterly flow aloft will also keep temperatures above seasonal
averages throughout the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

South winds will gust up to 30 kts this afternoon with increasing
mainly lower VFR clouds, although some ceilings may be MVFR at
times, especially at KDVL. Any showers should be isolated today.
Better chances for showers and storms tonight, with the highest
chances at KDVL during the early to mid evening, late evening into
early morning at KFAR/KGFK/KTVF and then late night at KBJI. Some
ceilings down at or below MVFR thresholds possible tonight before
sites trend VFR on Monday with winds becoming westerly.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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