Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 161829

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1229 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Issued at 1229 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Some tweaks to temps as a few spots in the trees have climbed to
the upper 20s and 30s while the west remains in the teens. Think
that readings should climb a few more degrees before starting to
fall off later this afternoon.


.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 700 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Some MVFR conditions may occur this morning over the southeast zones
with light fog occurring. MVFR conditions can be expected again
Tuesday morning over the southeast zones with fog developing.
Satellite loop indicated a mostly clear sky over the area except the
far north and the far northwest. Cigs were generally over
12 thousand ft.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

500mb ridging over the northern plains on Thursday begins to slowly
shift east on Friday. 850mb temps continue to look very mild through
this time frame. Main question will be the degree of mixing, with
fairly light south winds throughout. High temps look to rise above
freezing both days and will probably be warmer over the treed area
of our MN FA. This is much like a spring melt scenario, which
results in fog overnight. How any fog burns or does not burn off
during the day then affects temps the next day.

A blocking pattern over the eastern states develops by the
Saturday/Sunday time frame. Therefore short wave energy over the
central plains on Saturday morning lifts northward and into the FA
during the afternoon. By Sunday another 500mb low forms over the
southern plains, while the northern piece continues to affect this
FA. Guidance brings in chances for light pcpn, which seems to make
sense. Models do show cooler 850mb temps both days, although
guidance does not show much change from Thursday/Friday highs. How
this turns out will mainly affect pcpn type, with the current
forecast calling for mixed pcpn.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

All sites are VFR and will remain so for the next six hours.
Biggest question is if we will get some fog formation overnight.
Many of the model solutions, including the blends, have reductions
in visibility mainly along and east of the Red River. MOS guidance
is not nearly as bullish but some have vis going down into the
3-5SM range. Several places were down to 3-5SM BR this morning,
and with more moisture expected tonight it is possible that
visibilities will go down. Kept the mention out of KGFK and KDVL
for now as they will have northwesterly winds which are
unfavorable, but not out of the question that they could see some
decreases also. Have 2SM at the lowest at KTVF, with KFAR and KBJI
in the MVFR vis ranges. Some recovery by the end of the period.




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