Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 302111

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
311 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Lingering precip chances and type continue to be the main headache
for the short term.

The upper low currently over MN/IA should move further east
tonight. Under cyclonic flow, there has been quite a bit of light
snow across the region. The radar returns have been slowly
decreasing this afternoon, and some drying aloft seems to be
coming into the northern CWA. Models are all in fairly good
agreement on the trend of precip becoming more light and spotty as
we head into the overnight hours. There has not been a lot of
reports of drizzle or fog upstream where the upper layers have
already dried out, but model soundings for tonight continue to
show a classic freezing drizzle signature. With the low layers
remaining fairly saturated for much of the night, cannot rule out
some drizzle. Will continue to keep FZDZ mention but will include
chance/slight chance rather than areal coverage for more
uncertainty. Fairly good cold air advection overnight should drop
lows into the 20s even with cloud cover sticking around.

A reinforcing shortwave will dig down into northeastern MN
tomorrow. Some lingering freezing drizzle is possible mainly in
the morning, but the lower layers should start drying out and the
best lift will be well to our northeast. Will keep the afternoon
dry for now but may have to extend very light FZDZ/flurries if
they linger more than expected. Temps should be a bit cooler than
today, down into the upper 20s/low 30s although the true arctic
air will hold off a bit longer.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Thursday night to next Wednesday...The warmer than normal regime
will continue into the first part of December with highs in the
upper 20s and low 30s through the weekend into Monday. These temps
are 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Lows in the 20s aided by the
prolonged cloud cover will continue to help keep temps above normal.
A couple rounds of snow are expected to push across the northern
plains with the first on Saturday night into Sunday. Primarily snow
with a mix possible Sunday afternoon as temps warm into the mid 30s
in the southern valley. Only light accumulations are expected.

A more pronounced signal of a big pattern change becomes apparent
with a long wave trough ejecting pieces of energy from the
intermountain west. The wave targeting the northern plains pushes
into the area Monday night with rain or snow both possible as
thermal profiles remain in question. Behind the wave much cooler
more seasonal airmass will settle into the area with high temps on
Tuesday in the teens and 20s. Snow possible again Wednesday with
highs in the teens.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Ceilings have been fairly steady around 700-1000 ft, but
visibilities have been all over the place with light snow showers
moving through. Most locations seeing light snow have 2-5SM, but a
few spots have been down to 1SM at times. Snow will taper off this
afternoon, but then some -FZDZ will be possible at times
overnight. Included FZDZ mention at most TAF sites with around
3-5SM vis and ceilings around 800-1000 ft. Freezing drizzle will
decrease by the end of the period, and visibilities should come up
to P6SM. Ceilings will stay IFR/low MVFR however through the end
of the period. Winds will stay out of the north to northwest with
speeds this afternoon around 12-15 kts going down to less than 10
kts by tomorrow morning.




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