Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 281432
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
932 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES. THE BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL LIFT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. INSTABILITY IS WEAK...SO
WILL MENTION JUST SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE
A LIGHTNING STRIKE PERHAPS...BUT NOT WORTH A MENTION. TEMPS WILL
BE COOLEST IN THE SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...AND WARMER IN
THE NORTH. WILL TWEAK POPS A BIT...BUT THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE
OVERALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SD IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...NOW LIFTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM H5 TROF OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. BOTH
00Z AND 06Z NAM40 HAVE BEEN PRETTY AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING THAT
INCREASED MOISTURE AND ENERGY INTO SOUTHEAST ND BY SUNRISE AND
OVER MOST OF THE AREA /ALG AND SOUTH OF HWY 2/ THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW CENTER INTO SOUTHEASTERN SD BY EARLY EVENING AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN LATER TONIGHT. WITH THAT... THE MAIN DEEP
MOISTURE PUSH SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER
BASIN... THUS AM CURRENTLY DISCOUNTING THE HEAVIER PRECIP BULLS EYE
WHICH THE ROGUE 00Z GFS HAS TARGETED INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
BASIN AREA.

FRIDAY...AS CLOUDS DEPART THE WEST CENTRAL MN REGION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TO BEGIN DESCENDING
INTO THE AREA THROUGH NORTHEAST ND... AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD ACCOMPANY THAT FEATURE DURING THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY...
WITH SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FAST AND FURIOUS IS THE WEEKEND.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COOL AND DRY FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO A SUNNY AND DRY SATURDAY. EXPECT A SEASONABLY COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL TO SLIP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MIDDAY... WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING TEMPS BACK UP
TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A FLATTENED AND
FAST H5 FLOW SHOULD HAVE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. ALSO A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LNG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
US BUILDS NORTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS A LITTLE
FASTER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THE ECMWF BECOMES
SLIGHTLY FASTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET IS SOUTH
OF THE AREA SUN AND MON. THEN SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY WED.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF PRECIP ARE TRENDING MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...A DEGREE OR SO LOWER ON SUN AND A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGH FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

EXPECT INCREASING VFR CIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL RRV
THROUGH 16Z...WITH FAIR SKIES OVER FAR NORTHWEST MN. MID TO LOW
LEVEL CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA
THROUGH THE DAYTIME WITH AREAS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MUCH OF THE DAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL HAVE SCT
SKIES MOVG FROM EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN... WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST FA INTO THE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...GUST






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