Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 240325
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
925 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

With the light pcpn so far remaining southwest of the FA, went
ahead and slowed down its arrival a bit. Still only expecting a
dusting in the far southwest by morning. No other changes needed
at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Main forecast challenge and impacts will be upcoming snow system
affecting the far southern fa. Models remain consistent and in
good agreement so only some minor changes involving event.

12z models have trended a bit slower and slightly farther south
with northern edge of snow shield. As a result adjusted timing
back to mid evening tonight.  With winds not being an issue do
not see any reason for an advisory at this point. Clouds should
hold tight overnight and with little overall change in thermal
profiles temperatures will be cooler overnight but continue above
average.

Best chances for any measurable snowfall across the far south
will be Tuesday. With trends for farther south solution, snow
accumulations may be closer to 1-2 inches vs 1-3 however still
some spread in GEF plumes across the far south so overall any
changes were minor. No big swings in temperatures anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

To start the extended period...the main portion of the surface low
pressure system is forecast to track across Iowa and Illinois. Main
impacts across the region is expected to be a few inches of snowfall
in the far south and southeastern zones...with lesser amounts across
the rest of the forecast area. Otherwise...a cool upper trof shifts
south across the area bringing slightly cooler temps to the
region...but still generally above seasonal norms.

By Friday...expect more of a shift in the upper level pattern as the
ridge building in the west begins to migrate east...warming
temperatures a bit. The shift and amplification continues through
the weekend...with the possibility of temperatures warming to above
freezing again.  Model consensus indicates a clipper system
developing for the end of the forecast period...with the possibility
of measurable precipitation. Temperatures are forecast to remain on
the warm side through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Ceiling heights will be the main aviation challenge. Currently the
TAFs are running in the MVFR range with light winds. Have stuck
with a generally MVFR forecast and left the winds in the light
range. There may be a little bit of fluctuation in ceiling
heights, but overall not too much change.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Godon



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