Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KFGF 272023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
323 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Main forecast challenge is fog and low cloud potential again
tonight. As of 3 pm...fog continued to linger in the Grand Forks
area, although vsbys had come up to five miles. The area was
pretty much split between clouds and sunny areas. Looking ahead
into tonight, dew points remain quite high and southerly flow will
continue. Looks like wind speeds should remain around 10 mph for
most of the night. Only exception seems to be the far western FA
where winds drop off when the frontal boundary approaches late
tonight into Friday morning. During this time winds may drop to 5
mph or less, which could lead to some fog formation. Therefore
added patchy fog for areas west of the Red River Valley tonight.
Even if fog does not form, a low stratus deck looks likely, so
have gone with fairly extensive cloud cover tonight. As winds turn
to the W-NW behind the front on Friday, it should begin to scour
out the fog and low clouds. How fast that occurs remains to be
seen, but that should be the general trend. High temps look very
warm for late October.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

A generally quiet weekend weather-wise is in store as high pressure
builds southeastward across the region behind the cold front. A few
showers may linger across Lake of the Woods area Friday Night, with
otherwise dry conditions. With low-level cold advection Friday Night
into Saturday and model RH fields indicating some low cloud cover
dropping southward into the region, temps on Saturday will be
limited to the 40s, coolest across the north. An area of showers
will spread eastward on Saturday generally along and south of the
ND/SD border in response to mid-level frontogenesis, but with much
of this activity expected to be south of the region, have only low
pops mentioned along the ND/SD border.

The surface high center will move into the Red River Valley on
Saturday Night. Temps could be a few degrees colder than indicated
if skies clear off.

Temps will begin to recover on Sunday as the surface high passes
eastward, but winds will also become breezy from the south.

The best chance for rainfall over the next week will be Sunday Night
through Monday Night as a low pressure system ejects across the
northern plains into the western Great Lakes. Global models are in
good agreement showing a strong upper level shortwave trough
ejecting across area on Monday helping to intensify a surface
cyclone. Strong moisture advection is expected ahead of this system,
with pwats rising over 0.80 inches. Rainfall amounts will depend on
the surface low track, with the highest amounts expected to be
west/north of the low track within the mid-level deformation zone.
Right now the northern half of the region would be most favored for
higher rainfall amounts (possibly above half an inch). The surface
low track will also impact temps, with potentially a large range in
high temps over the area on Monday if the low tracks over the region
(quite warm conditions to the south, and cooler/rainy north/west of
the low with gusty north winds).

With the flow aloft remaining zonal through much of next week, any
colder air will remain bottled up well north of the region through
the start of November. High pressure should lead to benign weather
through the middle of next week with temps remaining above average
(early Nov average highs in mid 40s). Highs may reach near or above
50 in many areas during the middle of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Very challenging set of TAFs this afternoon. There will be a wind
switch to deal with Friday...and whether fog and low clouds will
ever go away today or come back overnight. Expected the fog to be
done with by now, but it continues to linger at KGFK/KBJI/KTVF.
Will still go with the idea that the fog will lift this afternoon,
but the lower clouds will linger. Models have varying solutions as
to what happens tonight with the clouds/fog, with some models not
showing fog and some showing lots of fog. So confidence is quite
low with the fog forecast. Low clouds are the same way. As an
example, KFAR is well VFR now, but sites all around it are much
worse. For now held off on mentioning any fog late tonight, and
will let the next shift keep an eye on that. Did continue to
mention low clouds for the TAFs where they are at now. Overall,
the aviation forecast will be highly variable and will just have
to monitor.




LONG TERM...Makowski
AVIATION...Godon is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.