Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 070055
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
655 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LINE OF RADAR RETURNS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT REACHING THE GROUND. CONTINUED TO
KEEP POPS GOING BUT OVERALL THINK THE EVENT WILL MAINLY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES WITH NOT A HUGE CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING ACCUMULATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE WEAK WAVES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.
TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERALL
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES EXPECTED.

THE FIRST SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS...IS APPROACHING.
THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PLACE THE STRONGEST FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW MN THIS EVENING (PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS HERE). THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...AND SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...WITH A SIMILAR TRACK
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS FOR AREAS
THAT APPEAR DARKER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY (GIVEN TODAYS MAX TEMPS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SUNDAY-MONDAY...UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL WITH STRONGER SYSTEMS
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS WILL
ADVECT INTO THE AREA...AND WITH LOW LEVEL SW/W FLOW EXPECTED
ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS NEAR OR INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY...AND MID 40S
TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THESE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE ISOLATED AREAS OF DEEPER SNOWPACK
(LANGDON AREA...BAUDETTE AREA). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
FORMATION...BUT IT IS STILL A POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...EXPECTED PATTERN STILL ON TARGET FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH FLATTENING WEST/NW FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH THE ECMWF STILL LOOKING A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THE GFS. UPPER JET REMAINS NORTH THE FA KEEPING ANY WEATHER
SYSTEMS THERE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LIGHT SNOW AT KDVL WAS SHORT LIVED...AND THINK THAT ANY SNOW OR
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND FURTHER EAST WILL BE SIMILAR. INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP AS THE PRECIP SHOULD BE TOO SCATTERED AND BRIEF
TO INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING GROUP. THE CIGS ARE MOSTLY VFR
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS HAVE BRIEFLY GONE DOWN TO MVFR. BETTER
CHANCES OF MVFR WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND COLDER AIR STARTS COMING DOWN. EVEN THEN THE MVFR
CIGS UPSTREAM ARE NOT SOLID AND THERE ARE A LOT OF SUCKER HOLES.
WILL KEEP TAFS MOSTLY VFR CIGS...WITH A BREAK IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT
AROUND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...JR






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