Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 061739
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1239 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE APPROACHED THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AND GRIGGS COUNTY IS SEEING SOME RETURNS. NOT TOO MUCH
HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR...BUT CARRINGTON HAD A SHORT
PERIOD OF RAIN REPORTED. ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS AREA MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES AS MUCH OF
THE ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE VIRGA. ADJUSTED TEMPS AS SOME
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DROPPING FASTER THAN EXPECTED
THANKS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAS BEEN RISING FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH AND BRING COOLER TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS. A FEW SPOTS IN
BARNES AND RANSOM COUNTY BRIEFLY REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT
ONLY FOR AN HOUR OR SO AND THE FIRE DANGER FOR THOSE COUNTIES IS
NOT VERY HIGH...SO WILL KEEP OUT OF ANY RED FLAG FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES...AND RH/DEW POINTS TO
FIT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. COLD FRONT IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CWA...WITH SOME FAIRLY BREEZY WINDS BEHIND
IT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP OUR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AS THEY ARE AND
JUST MONITOR THE ND SIDE AS WITH COOLER TEMPS COMING IN THE RH
VALUES HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. SOME RADAR RETURNS JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND KDVL HAD A BRIEF PERIOD WITH RAIN REACHING
THE GROUND. INCLUDED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH FOR A
BIT THIS MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING MEASURABLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

FRONT ON SCHEDULE AND WILL INTO DEVILS LAKE VERY NEAR 12Z. FRONT
ON COURSE TO BE IN FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN MID AFTN. SOME ECHO RETURNS
ON THE REGIONAL COMPOSITE BUT THEY ARE FROM SOME MID CLOUDS. SOME
VIRGA NOTICED ON THE ROOSEVELT MN MNDOT WEBCAM. WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

ISSUE TODAY IS COLD FRONT TIMING AND TEMPS. ALSO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES IN WCNTRL MN.  SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

COLD FRONT SLICING THRU CENTRAL MANITOBA TO ABOUT BRANDON THEN
INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO STANLEY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND ENTER DVL BASIN NR 12Z AND THEN INTO THE GRAND
FORKS-THIEF RIVER FALLS AREA NR 15Z AND THEN FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN
NR 20Z. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
20-30 KT RANGE. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE
TODAY COMING UP AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. A BAND
OF SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. ALL IN ALL A
PARTLY SUNNY TYPE DAY. MUCH COOLER TODAY NE ND WHERE HIGHS TODAY
BARELY REACHING 70...BUT FAR SE ND INTO WCNTRL WILL SEE A WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS MID TO UPPER 80S. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES THEY LOOK SLIM
BUT STILL NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE ISOLD HIGH BASED CONVECTION NR THE
FRONT IN PARTS OF WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN (FFM-BJI) THIS AFTN SO LEFT IN
AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BECOMING CLEAR
TONIGHT THEN SUNNY ON SATURDAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15
KTS. TEMPS MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THEN RETURN
FLOW AND A TAD WARMER TEMPS ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH ONE UPPER LOW LIFTING INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND ANOTHER NORTHERN
BRANCH UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION DURING THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH
SHOWERY PERIODS IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS COOLING TO BELOW AVERAGE BY
MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE TAFS IS THE WIND. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY AT
OR NEAR THE KFAR/KBJI AREAS AND HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE OTHER
TAF SITES. EXPECTING GUSTY NORTH WINDS UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDOWN WHEN
THEY SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE. OTHERWISE ONLY DEALING WITH A LITTLE
BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER DRIFTING OVER THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL NOT MENTION ANY SHOWERS AS THEY ARE FEW
AND FAR BETWEEN...AND ARE FALLING OUT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS NW/WC MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF E ND. COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH WEST OR SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH BEHIND THE
FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST OVER SE ND INTO WC MN...WITH COOLER
TEMPS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...EXPECT RH TO FALL TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI



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