Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 210424

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1124 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Issued at 1122 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Fog still the main concern overnight. Guidance has backed off
somewhat on fog potential but will remain in forecast. No changes

UPDATE Issued at 935 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

No changes necessary.

UPDATE Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Although no returns as of yet from regional radars will keep isold
shras going for another hour or so but low confidence on anything
developing. Otherwise only changes were to adjust cloud cover to
allow for more clearing over Mn.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Any showers this evening and the possibility of fog tonight will
be the main issues for the period.

Water vapor loop shows the main upper low moving through eastern
MN, but another weak shortwave has been rotating along the
backside of it through eastern ND. Some of the clouds have taking
on a more cumuliform appearance on sat loops, and the SPC meso
analysis page shows some fairly steep low level lapse rates across
the northern Red River Valley. The HRRR and to a lesser extent the
RAP has some showers developing mainly along and west of the Red
as that shortwave moves through this evening. Will continue to
keep some low POPs going across much of the western counties into
the early evening before any showers dissipate after we lose
daytime heating. The rest of the night should remain dry as
surface high pressure builds into the region.

With the high coming in, winds will decrease overnight and become
light and variable. There will be at least some clearing after
sunset, and with recent rainfall, patchy fog formation will be
possible. Have a mention for most of the area. Temps tomorrow will
depend on exactly if and where fog forms and how fast it
dissipates. Not too much mixing tomorrow at least early on with
the surface high shifting only slowly eastward. However, think by
afternoon we will at least get some south to southwest winds, so
with sunshine late in the day think that highs will be in the
upper 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Friday night through Sunday...A backdoor cold front will move down
from Canada during Sat morn into the aftn with some light rain or
showers, freshening wind and falling temps behind the boundary.
Look for this feature to pause near the ND/SD border before slowly
moving back to the north as a warm front during Sun. The thrust
of the pcpn will most likely be Sun night into Mon where amounts
of between one quarter to one half inch of rain will be spread
throughout the region.

Monday through Thursday...Packages of ensemble guidance point toward
a cool week to come with average maximum temps in the upper 40s
to low 50s and lows dropping to near freezing most nights. Periods
of light pcpn could feature a wintry mix early in the morning,
especially across northern locations. Differences persist between
the GFS and ECMWF in timing and position/strength of shortwaves
and sfc systems. The GFS is weaker and farther south generally
affording the forecast area a drier solution.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Guidance not quite as bullish on fog potential tonight in the DVL
basin. So instead of LIFR potential have lifted chances to around
a mile. With uncertainty kept fog out of remaining sites. Other
than the fog VFR conditions will prevail.




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