Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200539

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1139 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Issued at 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Fog has become slightly less dense in the spots where it has
developed over the northern Red River Valley, but will continue
with a mention for a while longer before winds start to pick up.
Temps in that area have bottomed out in the low teens and even
started rising a couple of degrees.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 258 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Temperatures this afternoon will decrease into the 20s for many
areas with some teens possible in northern locations, especially
if skies remain clear over snow cover. Winds will be light
overnight before gradually building towards early morning Monday.
This will allow for the chance of some freezing fog advertised by
higher resolution guidance like the HRRR/RAP/CONSMOS near and
north of the Devils Lake area. Building winds here after midnight
should help scour out any potential freezing fog should it build.

Monday will be breezier as a deepening low pressure system moves
across southern Manitoba. This low will also bring a cold front
and some light precipitation chances in the form of light snow,
mainly for the Lake of the Woods area. As the cold front passes
through the region Monday afternoon, gusty northwest winds
exceeding 25 mph will build lasting through the overnight. High
temperatures Monday will be warm with highs easily getting into
the 30s and 40s. This is aided by warm air advection and southerly
turning westerly winds ahead of the developing system.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

First wave drops down in the northwest flow aloft Monday night.
Biggest impact will probably be the gusty northwest winds and colder
air moving in behind the sfc cold front. Coordinated with adjacent
offices to bump up winds Monday night into portions of Tuesday.
There may be some light snow that sinks southward behind this
system, but at this point it looks to mainly affect northwest
Minnesota with some minimal amounts.

Should be a bit of a break before the next system begins to spread
some light snow into portions of the area Wednesday. This system
continues to weaken as it moves east, so the least effects would be
over west central Minnesota. Not looking like much wind with this
system. Models have hinted at the potential for mixed pcpn on the
back edge of this area of pcpn. At this point, that may be more for
the Devils Lake to Valley City to Forman corridor, but will keep an
eye on this with later forecasts.

Thanksgiving Day itself continues to look quiet, with the FA mainly
under high pressure. Moving into Friday through the weekend,
confidence decreases. Some sort of clipper system moves through
Friday into Friday night and any sort of pcpn would be minimal. Not
seeing much for pcpn on either Sat or Sun at this point, which would
also be big travel days.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

VFR conditions as high clouds have been moving in from the
northwest. Light and variable winds will pick up out of the
southwest, eventually shifting to the west and then northwest and
increasing significantly. By the end of the period there will be
gusts over 20 kts as a cold front moves into the area. There could
be some lower clouds by tomorrow evening, although models have
pretty spotty coverage. Will keep ceilings low VFR for now but
will keep an eye on things.




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