Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 130050
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
650 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Minor adjustments to hourly temps needed in southeast ND this
evening, where temps are slightly warmer than nocturnal trends.
Devils Lake area is just entering wind chill warning criteria of
40 below zero and expect that to expand across northeast ND over
the next couple of hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 153 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Main impacts tonight will be cold temperatures followed by wind
chills. Wind speeds will continue to diminish and should become
light by late evening as surface high pressure settles in over the
fa. Clear skies, light winds and fresh snow cover will all
combine to allow for some cold temperatures although coldest air
aloft will be east of our area. Light winds will combine with the
cold temperatures to put wind chills in the warning range for all
but the far south and east where advisories will suffice. It is
possible that as return flow and warm advection initiates from the
valley west temperatures may level off late tonight.

Respectable warm advection and southerly winds will allow for a
good temperature recovery with all areas climbing above zero.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 153 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Quiet weather expected throughout the weekend and at least the first
half of next week. Main story will be moderating temperatures to
normal, or even above, values.

The weekend begins with a deep upper low off the southern Pacific
coast providing mainly upper level zonal flow across the region.
Several areas of surface high pressure will pass through which
should provide for plenty of sunshine throughout the weekend and
early next week. Temperatures will gradually moderate more and more
each day with 850 mb temperatures well above the zero mark for the
majority of next week...resulting in highs in the 20s (or even
pushing the low 30s) and lows in the teens (above zero!).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

VFR but brutally cold and expect small engine aircraft to require
engines to be heated tonight. Coldest night of the winter season
on tap for tonight and wind chill values will be a definite
hazard for general aviation pre-flights. Will see an increase in
clouds last six hours of TAF periods.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Friday for NDZ049-052-053.

     Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Friday for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-054.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Friday for MNZ006-009-017-024-
     029>032-040.

     Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Friday for MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>016-022-023-027-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Speicher
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...Speicher



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