Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 210440
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1140 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Clouds decreasing over the area with only a few patches of mid
cloud left. Fcst in fine shape and no changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Main forecast impacts will be upcoming rain potential Sunday night
into Monday, wind and RH values for fire weather concerns
tomorrow. Models seem to be coming into better agreement with
timing of rain potential Sunday night.

For tonight, high based cu should diminish through the evening
likely coming close to clear at sunset. With little overall change
in the thermal profile minimums should be similar to last night.

Not quite as much moisture aloft so any cu development Saturday should
remain on the sct side. This and the column a couple degrees
warmer should allow for maximum temperatures to rise to the upper
half of the 70s. Strongest winds will again be across the higher
terrain west of the valley. Rh values anticipated to be from 30 to
35 percent so fire weather threat elevated but should remain blo
critical values.

Should see a minor recovery in dewpoints Saturday night which
should hold temperatures up a few more degrees and mixing will
hold up overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Based on latest model guidance will keep forecast dry Sunday through
all but the far west late in the afternoon but feel best potential
will be Sunday night. Temperatures Sunday will hinge on clouds
however should be close if not a bit warmer than Saturday.

Frontal boundary just reaching the central Dakotas Sunday evening
so pcpn may be delayed until late evening into the overnight.
Enough instability remains to maintain T mention.

Guidance suggests main rain band will be vcnty valley region
Monday morning propagating east during the day. Adjusted pops
accordingly. With clouds temperatures will be a bit cooler.

For Monday night through Friday, it looks like an unsettled pattern.
Southwest flow aloft should persist much of next week with ample
moisture and instability for at least the threat of afternoon
showers and storms. Temps should be near normal through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

VFR fcst thru the pd. Few patches of mid clouds left in the RRV
overnight. 500 mb ridging over the area saturday with a dry
airmass should yield full sun. Southeast winds light tonight and
then 10 to 20 kts saturday.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...DK/Voelker
AVIATION...Riddle



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