Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 171450

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
950 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Issued at 942 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Forecast is in good shape with frontogenetically forced band of
light rain impacting the southern valley today. Showers will be
slow to begin as near SFC layer takes time to saturate this
morning. Have delayed the more likely PoPs a bit to account for


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Short wave and associated surface low will track across SD today.
Model guidance in good agreement in developing a band of rain
across the south half of the FA in zone of frontogenetic forcing
aided by exit region of upper jet. Just where this band sets up
across the south will determine where higher pops will eventually
be but for now will maintain chance pops. Maximum temperatures
should be fairly uniform with clouds across the south with warmer
thermal profiles but more sun over the cooler north.

Rain band will continue this evening until forcing diminishes
after midnight. Coolest temperatures tonight will be across the
far north having better chance of clearing with clouds holding
temperatures up across the south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Will maintain some low end pops Tuesday as weak wave crosses the
region although confidence not very high. Column continues to
gradually cool resulting in temperatures closer to average.

Midweek looks quiet with temperatures dropping a bit blo average.

Long wave trough over the Gulf of AK weakens and shifts a little
east through the period. Downstream long wave ridge and trough
amplify a bit through day 5 over western North America and eastern
North America and shift a bit to the east by the end of the period.

The GFS was faster than the ECMWF through the period. The ECMWF was
trending farther south while the GFS was vacillating around. Will
blend the models.

Little change to high temperatures on Thu. Fri, Sat and Sun highs
were increased a degree or two from yesterdays forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

CIGs to remain VFR through the period. Best potential for rain
today into the evening will be along and south of a FAR-BJI line.
Uncertain just where band will set up so just mentioned VCSH and
this can be adjusted when band sets up.




SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hoppes/Voelker
AVIATION...Voelker is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.