Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250231
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
931 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

PULLED ALL POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION WELL
EAST OF THE FA AND SHRA OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN ND HOLDING PRETTY
CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW. NO OTHER CHANGES.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

WILL LET WATCH RIDE ONE MORE HOUR TO BE SAFE BUT CURRENTLY MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE EAST OF THE FA. SPOTTY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LOW MAY GET INTO THE FAR NW THIS EVENING SO MAINTAIN LOW POPS THIS
AREA. INSTABILITY LIMITED SO LIKELY WILL ONLY SEE SOME SHRA IF ANY
OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND HOW SEVERE IT WILL BE
THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE MT/ND BORDER...WITH ONE
VORT LOBE ALREADY LIFTING WELL TO OUR NORTH BUT ANOTHER POSSIBLE
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST. THE SFC LOW CONTINUES OVER
NORTHWESTERN ND...WITH A BOUNDARY/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING INTO
OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. DEW POINTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S FROM NEAR 70 THEY
WERE A FEW HOURS AGO. CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED DESTABILIZATION
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 80S AND MIXED LAYER CAPE HAS RISEN ABOVE 1000 J/KG
IN A SMALL AREA IN THAT PART OF THE CWA. NOT A LOT OF SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW COMING
EAST THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF LIFT. SIG TOR PARAMETERS
HAVE BEEN CLIMBING IN CENTRAL MN JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME STORMS COULD GET GOING OVER OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. SR HELICITY VALUES ARE NOT CRAZY HIGH...BUT
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL TURNING FOR SOME SUPERCELLS.

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STORMS
LIFTING QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH
THE CWA. THINK OUR WINDOW FOR STORMS WILL BE PRETTY SHORT...FROM
THIS AFTERNOON TO SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THERE COULD BE SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIP MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA LATER TONIGHT
AS THE TRUE COLD FRONT MOVES IN...BUT THINK THAT STORMS WILL NOT
BE SEVERE. CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS GOING MAINLY IN OUR NORTH AND
EAST FOR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL KEEP US PRETTY MIXED BUT THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION TO APPROACH 50 DEGREES IN OUR
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF INTO ONTARIO...WITH A STRONG
SLUG OF COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THERE COULD BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW...SO KEPT LOW POPS GOING. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIKE THE FALL THAN AUGUST WITH SOME LOCATIONS NOT GETTING INTO THE
60S. MONDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL BRING
CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS SPLIT FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP AND THE MAIN SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LOW STAYS OFF TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE KEPT A BOUNDARY NEAR OUR
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHICH COULD BRING SOME PRECIP...BUT OVERALL
THERE HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARDS A FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION. WILL KEEP
POPS DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT WILL START TO RECOVER A BIT BY
WEDNESDAY AND REACH THE 70S.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH 850MB TEMPS BY FRIDAY AROUND +20C. THERE
COULD BE SOME CHANCE OF CONVECTION NEXT WEEKEND...AND WILL LEAVE IN
SOME LOW POPS SAT NIGHT/SUN FOR WITH A FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
SPREADING ACROSS THE NW FA. KEPT CIGS VFR ACROSS ALL BUT DVL TAF
SITE WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS MAY PUSH IN LATER THIS EVENING. LOOKS
LIKE ANY T HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF THE BJI AREA AND NOT LIKELY TO
SEE ANY CONVECTION THIS EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...VOELKER





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