Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241434
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
934 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IS LIFTING NORTHWARD THRU THE KJMS
CARRINGTON AND HARVEY AREAS RIGHT NOW...WHICH IS BASICALLY JUST
BRUSHING OUR WESTERN FA. WILL KEEP HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES WEST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THERE IS MORE LIGHT PCPN OVER
EASTERN SD WHICH WILL TRY TO POKE UP INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY MAY
NOT SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING UNTIL MID AFTERNOON OR LATER. AS FAR AS
PCPN TYPE...WEB CAMS SHOW MORE RAIN THAN SNOW ACROSS THE WEST BUT
IT COULD BE A MIX THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING. ALSO LOWERED
HIGHS A BIT DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WY AND CO WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO SPLIT. ONE
TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ND WHILE THE OTHER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

ALSO TWO SURFACE LOWS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF MT AND CO
AND TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TWO PRESSURE
SYSTEMS COMBINE OVER QUEBEC BY WED NIGHT. STRONGER MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO OCCUR WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM.

OPEN WAVE OVER WY FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE NORTHERN STREAM
WHILE SOUTHERN SYSTEM REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE. UPPER WAVE OPENS UP
AFTER WED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LESS WITH THIS RUN WITH ONE TO
THREE INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. LESS SNOW
ELSEWHERE. THEREAFTER THE UPSTREAM UPPER AIR PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND
WILL SEND COOLER AIR OUT OF CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY...BUT QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY. A WEAK WAVE WITHIN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
SPREAD SNOW CHANCES INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR VERY MINOR. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGES BY
SATURDAY DUE TO A STRONGER SYSTEM PROPAGATING ACROSS CANADA. IN
REALITY...THE MODELS ARE NOT THAT FAR APART SAT/SAT NIGHT...JUST
MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STRONG SYSTEM THAT MAKES
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SHOWERS (GFS/GEM) AND DRY (ECMWF). AFTER
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...VALUES SHOULD BE MORE TOWARD NORMAL
OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

IFR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
CIGS OF 10 TO 15 HUNDRED FT ARE OVER NORTHERN MN HOWEVER IFR CIGS
OVER SOUTHWEST MN WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHWEST MN. EXPECT MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CIGS MAY RISE TO MVFR LEVELS BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES






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