Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 161259
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
659 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

TWEAKED CLOUDS TO TRY AND FIT THE CURRENT TRENDS...BUT OVERALL
KEPT THE EAST CLOUDY WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE WEST. FLURRIES HAVE
BEEN CONTINUING OVER AREAS THAT HAVE CLOUDS...SO EXTENDED A FLURRY
MENTION A BIT LONGER INTO THE MORNING...AND THEN ONLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER.

SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LOW
DIGGING DOWN INTO MN FROM CANADA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM MANITOBA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE AXIS HAS STARTED TO
ENTER THE WESTERN CWA AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING IN THAT
AREA. THE SFC HIGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH TODAY. THINK THAT
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RED RIVER THAT WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL STAY SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY. THE WEST
WILL BE MORE COMPLEX AS THERE IS SOME DECENT CLEARING ALL THE WAY
UP INTO THE LAKES OF MANITOBA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE VALLEY
SITES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS...BUT THE DEVILS LAKE
AREA HAS MUCH HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPS PROGGED SO THINK THAT THERE
WILL BE NOT AS GOOD OF A CHANCE OF CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA.
WENT WITH LESS CLOUD COVER IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND A COLDER
START TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
TEENS.

TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS...AND
THINK WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DECREASE OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST.
THAT AREA WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW FLURRIES
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE. FURTHER WEST...THINK THAT LESS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LIKE A ROCK TO NEAR THE ZERO MARK.
DID NOT GO WIDESPREAD NEGATIVE TEMPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF
SNOW COVER IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. THE
COLD SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SUN THAT EVEN WITH A COLDER START TEMPS WILL REACH THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ALL BRING A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT WITH MOISTURE
LACKING AND STILL NOT MUCH FLOW IT CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY DRY.
THERE WILL BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT EVEN THEN THE MODELS ARE PRETTY SPARSE WITH QPF SO
WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE SFC
HIGH STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN. TEMPS SHOULD
START OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT REACH THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WEATHER OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE AREA STAYS MOSTLY
UNCHANGED. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA WITH
WEAK GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. RETURN FLOW AT THE SFC AND INCREASING
THICKNESS VALUES INDICATING A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE ON MONDAY WITH
A WEAK WAVE CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER KDVL AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME SUCKER HOLES OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME FLURRIES CONTINUE AND VIS AT TIMES IS
DOWN TO 3-5SM...MOSTLY AT KBJI. THINK THAT WE SHOULD BE MVFR MUCH
OF TIME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME CLEARING OCCURS THIS
EVENING OVER ALL SITES BUT KBJI. NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS WILL
DROP DOWN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR





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