Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 191425
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
925 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

We have added some low pops for showers and perhaps a
thunderstorms in all areas from 21-02z. There will be a weak
shortwave moving through the region with minimal Cape around 500
J/kg and showalters around -2c. There will also be about 25kt to
mix from the south very efficiently, causing some areas to
approach critical levels with some fire weather concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Main forecast challenge will be small chances for showers and
tstms this afternoon/early evening and again on Friday. Looking at
current conditions, only seeing some cirrus and high level smoke
over the region. There are some mid level clouds around the
Manitoba Lakes region, where a few showers and tstms also linger.
There is a weak short wave over this area, which is expected to
drop into the FA this afternoon. Not seeing a lot of other
forcing, but a lot of weak contributors. Models bring in mid 40
sfc dew points by afternoon, but dew points were a little
overdone yesterday. However, with models all indicating some hit
and miss showers/tstms by afternoon/early evening, will stick with
this idea. Seems like it may be more of an elevated event, with
not much of anything reaching the ground. Probably will be more
showers than thunder, but will keep thunder mentioned with some
weak instability present. Otherwise south winds look a little
breezier today, and if dew points do not get as high as expected,
fire weather conditions could be tricky. During the day Friday the
above mentioned short wave gets pushed a little more southward, or
across our southern FA. By Friday, models also want to bring in
some 50+ dew points. Models show some minimal shower/thunder
chances across the south and will keep those too. Friday also
looks like a breezy day. However, if dew points come up as
expected, humidity levels will not be as low.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

The Friday night through Saturday night time frame continues to
look dry. Models keep the 50+ dew points in the area as well as
the breezy south winds during the daytime.

For Sunday through Thursday...Longwave troughing over the Pacific
NW down into California will set up a SW flow patter aloft for the
CONUS Northern Tier...while a surface high over IN/IL helps
maintain an open gulf, providing decent moisture flux into the
plains. This will result in a change in weather pattern for the
long term, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
Sun night into Monday. By the time the moisture axis shifts east
of the region...an upper lower over Saskatchewan could bring
another possible round of showers and storms across the northern
half of the CWA...mainly Mon night...followed by return of SW flow
pattern aloft that will keep active weather throughout the second
half of the workweek as well. Daytime highs will generally be in
the 70s throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Looking at south winds increasing through the morning and becoming
rather gusty by afternoon into early evening. These gusty winds
should diminish again by mid evening. Expect some mid level clouds
to develop by afternoon as well, along with some isolated showers
and thunderstorms. With the isolated nature of any precipitation
that may develop, left any mention out of the TAFs for now.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Speicher
AVIATION...Godon



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