Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 220356
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
956 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR TIMING OF STRATUS COMING DOWN OUT
OF CANADA. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHOW SOME
FAVORABLY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH A LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER
AND DRY AIR ALOFT. ON THE OTHER HAND...NOT MUCH RISING MOTION IN
SAID SATURATED LAYER AND LOOKING AT THE CLOUD LEVELS OBSERVED
UPSTREAM IN CANADA MOST ARE ABOVE 1000 FT. WOULD LIKE TO HAVE SOME
CLOSER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND LOWER CEILINGS FOR DRIZZLE
FORMATION SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT FOR NOW. WILL KEEP THE PATCHY
FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHWEST HOWEVER AS WINDS BEGIN TO GO LIGHT
AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS COMING IN AND THERE COULD BE SOME RADIATING
OUT A JUST SOME PATCHES OF FOG IN AREAS WHERE THERE WAS SNOW MELT
TODAY. ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A BIT AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN STAYING
IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME FALLING BUT WITH
A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS AND CLOUDS COMING IN LOWS WILL STAY IN THE
20S OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH MAINLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME DECENT RADIATING OUT...THINK SOME PATCHY FOG
IN SOME AREAS IS POSSIBLE. RAP HAS SOME LOW VIS IN THE NORTHWEST
SO KEPT A MENTION FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A WEAK COLD FRONT TO NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER (MAIN RESULT WILL BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER).
THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY BE WASHED OUT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AGAIN DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE...WITH SATURDAY MAX TEMPS
SIMILAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FA) THAN TODAYS...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD
REGARDING HOW THE UPPER LOW WILL EVOLVE. MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION...BUT COULD STILL
ACT TO SLOW DOWN THE NORTHERN WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THIS REGION.
THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INDICATES A BAND OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB CONVERGENCE/DEFORMATION. IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR...IT COULD BE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET GIVEN THE WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. DID INCLUDE A SCHC FOR MIXED PRECIP...BUT WITH
OTHER MODELS DRY (SLOWER) CANNOT GO WITH HIGHER POPS. THE UPPER
LOW THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS...ANTICIPATE STRONG N/NW WINDS ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS. AS OF NOW...WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY SHOULD BE
30-40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS (GIVEN EXPECTED COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WIND SPEEDS ALOFT). THESE
WINDS COMBINED WITH SNOW SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY. ANY SNOW-PACK CURRENTLY ON THE
GROUND WILL NOT BE BLOW-ABLE WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THE DAY TODAY...SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY. SO...HOW
MUCH SNOW ACTUALLY FALLS WILL DETERMINE HOW WIDESPREAD THE BLOWING
SNOW IS DURING THIS PERIOD. STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED FORCING OVER THIS
REGION THINKING 1-2 INCHES AT MOST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER (ALTHOUGH GFS INDICATES A STRONGER SYSTEM AND HIGHER QPF).
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT THE CURRENT MENTION IN THE HWO AND
WEATHER STORY SEEMS LIKE THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS AT THIS MOMENT
IN TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FCST AREA ON THE COLD SIDE. CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH.
COLDEST AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY. MODERATION OCCURS FRIDAY BUT LONG RANGE MODELS KEEP AREA
NEAR THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN COLD NORTH AND WARMER
SOUTHWEST. 12Z GFS/ECMWF SEEM IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND BLENDS WELL
WITH BLENDED MODEL DATA PROCEDURE. GOOD NEWS IS NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM FOR THE THANKSGIVING DAY TRAVEL PERIOD LOCALLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THINK THERE COULD
BE SOME REDUCTIONS IN CIGS TOWARDS MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS BUT THINK THE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN
TAF SITES SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. THINK
THERE SHOULD BE SOME RECOVERY BACK TO VFR AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT
AND WINDS PICK BACK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR





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