Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251741
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1241 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

WIND REMAINS THE MAIN ISSUE YET THIS AFTERNOON. KDVL REGION JUST
BARELY IN CRITERIA NOW AND MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THEM FROM THE
ADVISORY SOMETIME AFTER 1 PM. SEEING SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR ND FA WHICH APPEAR TO BE SPREADING EAST. SO MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE A BIT OF SUN TODAY WHICH SHOULD HELP MELT OFF SOME OF
THE SLUSHY ROADS. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

SNOW AND WIND WILL BE THE CONCERNS FOR TODAY. UPPER CIRCULATION
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NOW (09Z) ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BAND OF DEFORMATION
ZONE PRECIP WITHIN THE VALLEY WILL ALSO PROPAGATE EASTWARD. THIS
BAND OF PRECIP IF FAIRLY UNORGANIZED...AND DOES BEGIN AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN. EVEN IF THIS PRECIP BAND CAN ORGANIZE FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO...GIVEN THE FAIRLY WARM GROUND TEMPS AND CONSTANT EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THE PROBABILITY FOR MORE THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW IS LOW (MOST AREAS LIKELY A DUSTING A SNOW).

GOOD SET UP FOR STRONG WINDS TODAY...WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND 40-50 KNOT 925MB
WIND SPEEDS. MIXING POTENTIAL IS FAIR...ALTHOUGH LACK OF STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT MIXING A BIT. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.

HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT BEFORE THE STRONGEST WINDS...AND
WITH MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATION COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
ABOVE FREEZING...NO NEED FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THERE HAS BEEN REPORTS OF DZ/FZDZ ACROSS A PORTION OF WC MN.
HOWEVER...ROAD SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING (EVEN WITH SFC TEMPS
BELOW FREEZING). THIS AREA WILL SOON BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SFC TROUGH...ENDING THE DRIZZLE. VERY LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE WX ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME
SIGNAL FOR A QUICK CLIPPER AND -SN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON
FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES IN EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA WHILE THE LONG WAVE RIDGE WEAKENS IN WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
SLIGHTLY NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE STATES. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION
THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF PRECIP WAS TRENDING NORTHWARD WHILE THE
GFS WAS TRENDING SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHWARD. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS.

HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR SAT, SUN AND
MON AND INCREASE ONE TO THREE DEGREES ON TUE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
MODEL RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS ARE WINDY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVEMENT OF MVFR CIGS INTO VFR RANGE. SATELLITE SHOWING A
CLEARING HOLE OVER NORTHEAST ND...MAINLY THE DVL AREA...HOWEVER
UPSTREAM IN SW MANITOBA SHOWS MORE CLOUDS INBOUND. WILL REMOVE CIGS
FOR THE ND SITES IN THE LATE AFTN...AND BRING VFR CIGS BACK AROUND
MID EVENING. MN SITES AND EVEN FAR WILL HAVE PERIODS OF VERY GUSTY
WINDS BRINGING VSBYS DOWN TO 1 TO 3 SM IN BLSN. THIS WILL IMPROVE BY
SUNDOWN...AND MVFR CIGS ON MN SIDE WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT EXPECT
VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. PREV WINDS WERE OVER FORECAST...AND HAVE REDUCED
SLIGHTLY THE WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>016-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...SPEICHER






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