Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 180016
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
716 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

The wind advisory has been allowed to expire. Clouds are slowly
diminishing from the west and temperatures are beginning to cool
as expected. So no significant updates are expected this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

The main forecast challenge will be diminishing winds and
snow showers. First of all, ended up issuing a wind advisory for
the northern Red River Valley until 7 PM. There have been pretty
strong winds around Winnipeg than have shifted southward into the
northern valley. The HRRR shows these winds holding through the
late afternoon and then decreasing through the early evening. The
light snow showers have now shifted just east of the Red River
Valley, extending from west of Roseau to near Detroit Lakes. These
will also linger into the late afternoon or early evening before
diminishing. Cloud cover will slowly decrease from west to east
tonight, so expect Saturday to be markedly different. There will
be light winds and some sunshine with highs a few degrees warmer
than today.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

An upper ridge will be over the area on Saturday night, drifting
east as an upper level trough pushes onto the BC/WA coast. A plume
of warm air will exist ahead of the upper trough and a surface warm
front will push east across the area on Sunday. Highs on Sunday
should be in the 40s north to 50s south. Clouds will be on
the increase from the west on Sunday as well, with some rain
possible late in the day or during the evening hours as a cold front
pushes through the region. A cooling trend is expected for Monday
and Tuesday following Sunday`s warmth. However, Tuesday`s highs will
be rather close to normal in most areas.

Temperatures stay slightly above normal through the rest of the
week. Also, precipitation chances increase for Wed-Fri. As the cold
surface high drifts east and warm air pushes back toward the
region, rain or snow will be possible. The best chance may come on
Thursday night and Friday as a strong Colorado low moves out onto
the plains. However, the precipitation associated with this low may
stay to the south of the area as models differ on the details this
far out in time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 703 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Widespread MVFR CIGS will steadily shift eastward and out of the
FA through 12z.

In eastern North Dakota... expect scattered MVFR CIGS to diminish
west of a Langdon-Cooperstown-Gwinner line by 01z. East of that
line... expect areas of MVFR CIGS to diminish from 02 to 04z.

Widespread MVFR CIGS will persist across the Red River Corridor
through 05z... with VFR conditions after.

Across northwest Minnesota... Expect widespread MVFR CIGS to
persist through 06z... then slowly erode from the west through
12z... with VFR conditions after.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gust
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...Gust



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