Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230447
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1147 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

TWEAKED POPS FOR TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES. SHIFTED POPS
FARTHER NORTH. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES THIS UPDATE.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO SOUTHERN SASK.
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL SOUTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE MIXING RATIOS WERE
STARTING TO INCREASE OVER SD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MT
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MT BY MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWED HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST. LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

RADAR SHOWING WEAK RETURN OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND WAS MOVING TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST ABOUT 30 KNOTS. SOME SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT IN
THE NORTHEAST ZONES. TWEAKED WINDS UP A BIT FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA AT MID AFTN AS SOUTHERLY
SFC FLOW IS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A WEAK
BOUNDARY NR A ROLLA-LANGDON-DRAYTON-WASKISH LINE WITH A MORE
NORTHEAST WIND NORTH OF IT VS THE SOUTHEAST WIND SOUTH OF IT. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL DROP A TAD SOUTH SATURDAY AND INTENSIFY AS A STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT SETS UP SATURDAY AFTN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA. EXPECT 50S FAR NORTH TO MID 70S FAR SOUTH. 850 MB
WARM ADV INCREASES JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDAY TONIGHT AND THUS
MAINTAINED A CHC OF SHOWERS LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION TONIGHT AND
THEN SPREAD THAT A BIT SOUTH AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. 12Z ECMWF
REMAINS QUITE WET ON SATURDAY AFTN IN NW MN INTO PARTS OF THE RRV.
NOT READY TO BUY INTO THAT VERY WET SOLN BUT DID INCLUDE A LOW
POPS FOR MANY AREAS ESP NORTH OF I-94 WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY END UP BY SAT MID AFTN.

SAT NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING 850-700 MB INSTABILITY WITH 850 MB
CAPES OF 500 J/KG OR SO IN FAR SE ND INTO ERN SD. THUS SOME
T-STORMS CERTAINLY PSBL SAT NIGHT IN THIS REGION. FARTHER NORTH IN
THE COOLER AIRMASS MORE SHOWERY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WIDESPREAD RAIN AREA NORTH OF
THE LOW OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NRN FCST AREA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL
LOOKS TO BE NR I-94 IN ND INTO MN LAKES COUNTRY WHERE 1 INCH OR
MORE OF RAIN IS PSBL. SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISHING SLOWLY IN THE AFTN. WINDY SUNDAY WITH A
EASTERLY WIND 20 TO 30 MPH AND HIGHER IN SOME AREAS AS 925 MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 40+ KTS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHT BETWEEN
LOW IN SD AND HIGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO MANITOBA/NW ONTARIO.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL HELP EJECT A SFC LOW OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK. MODELS ARE
BRINGING IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER
QPF BAND IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS. ONE ISSUE
WILL BE  NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BRING UP THE
QUESTION OF P-TYPE FOR WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS 540 THICKNESS LINE
WELL NORTH OF CWA WHILE GFS BRINGS NORTHERN ZONES BETWEEN 543 AND
546 LINES LATER IN THE PERIOD. AFTER TWO 12Z RUNS SHOWING THESE
VALUES...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP AND WENT WITH ALL RAIN
AS THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE DRY AREA OF THE FCST AREA.
EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OR PERHAPS
EVEN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS WERE AROUND 8 TO 10
THOUSAND FT OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES. ELSEWHERE SATELLITE INDICATED
HIGH CIRRUS WAS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT ND MOST OF SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES



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