Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 150540
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1140 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT FZRA DID FALL AT WFO OFFICE
HERE IN GRAND FORKS...WHILE SOME FLURRIES FELL IN FARGO. STILL
THINK PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE
FZDZ AND THEN A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE 08Z TO 10Z TIME
FRAME. DENSE FOG VCNTY OF SFC LOW CONTINUES...AS WELL AS IN
FORESTED AREA WHERE WINDS ARE CALM. THEREFORE NOT CHANGES TO DENSE
FOG ADVISORY PLANNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT FOCUSES ON WHAT TO DO WITH
HEADLINES. THE SURFACES ACROSS THE AREA ARE VERY WET FROM SEVERAL
DAYS OF A SATURATED LOW LAYER...WITH PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE
AND DENSE FOG. HOWEVER THERE HAVE BEEN HARDLY ANY REPORTS OF
FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT...BUT SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE
MAIN ISSUE IS COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL BRING SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AND MAKE SURFACES VERY SLICK FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. TO
AVOID CONFUSION TO THE PUBLIC...WILL LET FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
RIDE...HOWEVER THE MAIN THREAT IN TERMS OF NEW PRECIPITATION IS
AREAS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH HARDLY ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE ICY SURFACES WILL BE A RESULT OF VERY
WET SURFACES FREEZING AS TEMPERATURES DROP.

NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE SCOURED OUT THE DENSE FOG IN NORTHEASTERN ND.
WILL REMOVE MENTION OF FOG IN THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

CURRENT METAR REPORTS INDICATE SFC LOW NOW OVER CLAY COUNTY MN
REGION...JUST EAST OF FARGO. COLD ADVECTION/NORTH WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE INTO THE PEMBINA GORGE AREA AND THIS WILL
USHER IN COLDER AIR TEMPERATURES. AS OF 00Z...STILL SEVERAL SITES
IN THE FREEZING RAIN AREA THAT BEGAN AT 00Z
(BARNES...STEELE...TRAILL...POLK AND COUNTIES WITHIN RED RIVER
VALLEY NORTH TO THE INTL BORDER). LIGHT DRIZZLE AND SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED...AND MID 30 TEMPS IN THE REGION
SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THEREFORE THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF HOURS DELAY BEFORE THE
FREEZING RAIN BEGINS...HOWEVER NO CHANGE TO HEADLINES NECESSARY
WITH TEMPS FALLING. HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME UP REPORTS AND EVEN
SNOW...HOWEVER SOME AWOS REPORTS SUSPECT. EXPECT THAT THE -10 TO
-20 LAYER IS TOO DRY FOR ANY SNOW THIS EARLY IN THE
EVENING...HOWEVER WILL CONFIRM WITH 00Z SOUNDING WHICH WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

LOTS OF FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS PACKAGE...FOG/PCPN AND PCPN
TYPE AND EVENTUALLY EVEN WIND. AS OF MID AFTERNOON STILL SEEING A
LOT OF SFC REPORTS WITH DENSE FOG. WILL BASICALLY EXTEND THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY THRU 12Z MON FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY. THERE MAY BE TIMES WHEN THE FOG IS NOT QUITE SO DENSE
BUT THINK AS THE SUN SETS TONIGHT IT WILL FILL BACK IN AGAIN.
COULD EVEN BE SOME FOG IN THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE FZRA ADVISORY TEXT. SFC WINDS SHOULD
TURN AROUND TO THE NORTH IN ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING
WHICH SHOULD HELP THIN OUT THE FOG...BUT MORE SO IN THE WEST.
SPEAKING OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...MATCHED UP WITH KBIS FOR
STARTING/ENDING TIMES BUT THESE ARE ALWAYS HARD TO NAIL DOWN.
LATER SHIFTS WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH SFC OBS AND SOCIAL MEDIA
POSTS AND ADJUST IF NEED BE. FINALLY SEEING WINNIPEG SWITCHED OVER
TO FZDZ AND QUITE A FEW METARS ALONG OUR WEST REPORTING UNKNOWN
PCPN TYPE. STILL HAVE TEMPS RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING POINT FROM
CAVALIER OVER TO CANDO AND DOWN THRU CARRINGTON...WHERE WINDS
HAVE ALSO SWITCHED TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST
TONIGHT SO EXPECT CONDITIONS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO
DETERIORATE IN THE EVENING AND MAYBE EVEN LATE EVENING IN THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY. MAY NOT PICK UP A LOT OF FREEZING RAIN BUT ALL IT
TAKES IS A LITTLE TO MAKE THINGS TREACHEROUS. WILL NOT ISSUE A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE EAST AS THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT
GET THERE UNTIL MON MORNING. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR AND IF THE
FREEZING PCPN MATERIALIZES AS EXPECTED THE ADVISORY CAN BE
EXPANDED EAST. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO STRENGTHENS ON MONDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING 35 TO 40 KNOTS AT 850MB. THEREFORE SHOULD AT
LEAST SEE WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP. SINCE THERE IS LITTLE SNOW
LEFT AND VERY LITTLE EXPECTED MONDAY BLSN NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISSUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. HIGHS FOR TUE AND WED BACK BELOW NORMAL AGAIN.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A GENERALLY DRY PERIOD EXPECTED AS
MID LEVEL SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES. INITIALLY TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
A BIT BLO AVERAGE. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK SETTING UP MODEST RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER AT OR A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
CANADA...WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO GUSTS IN THE UPPER 20S MPH BY
12Z. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SCOUR OUT FOG...HOWEVER IFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING.
MODELS DO INDICATE THE LOW 2KM SATURATED LYR WILL SCOUR OUT
TOMORROW AFTN...AND TRENDED CIGS INTO MVFR RANGE IN THE 20Z - 22Z
TIME FRAME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ039-049-052-
     053.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ039-049-052-
     053.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ016-027-029-
     030-038.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ006>008-
     014-015-024-026-028-054.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ002-003-005-
     008-013>015-022-029.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ002-003-005-
     008-013>015-022-029.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ006-009-016-017-
     023-024-027-028-030>032-040.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER






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