Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 240432
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1132 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

CLOUDS EXPANDING BACK TO THE WEST. LOW HOPE ON ANY CLEARING
TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND MIXING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT LIKELY DROP
MUCH AND RAISED MINIMUMS A FEW DEGREES OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW
WHERE SKIES ARE STILL TEMPORARILY CLEAR. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS. SOME CLEARING OVER
THE NW FA...DVL AREA HOWEVER LOWER CONFIDENCE IF CLEARING WILL
MAKE IT TO THE VALLEY. HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC
SO ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS TO HOLD CLOUDS IN UNTIL THEY BREAK. NO
OTHER CHANGES AS PCPN HAS EXITED EASTERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

TIMING AND TYPE OF PRECIP ENTERING THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR
THE SHORT TERM.

A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIG INTO WESTERN MN...AND
SOME SLOPPY RAIN/SNOW MIX STILL LINGERS OVER PARK RAPIDS AND
BEMIDJI AREAS. NOTHING IS ACCUMULATING...BUT KEPT HIGH POPS GOING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT SHOULD BE MORE QUIET
AS BRIEF RIDGING MOVES IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. TEMPS AND CLOUDS WILL
BE TOUGH TO FIGURE OUT TONIGHT. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS
DECK IS STARTING TO ERODE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THINK THAT HOLE WILL
EXPAND A BIT FURTHER BEFORE SUNSET AND THEN FILL BACK IN WITH MORE
CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT INTO WESTERN ND
WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED TO KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT INTO THE
PLAINS...AND THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH A TREND TOWARDS SPLIT FLOW
FOR THAT WAVE. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND IMPACT MAINLY SOUTHERN MN WITH ONLY A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO OUR CWA. THE NORTHERN SFC LOW WILL MOVE OUT INTO
CENTRAL ND...WITH MODELS CHURNING OUT THE BEST PRECIP ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THAT WAVE. IT DOES SEEM THAT THERE WILL BE A NARROW
BAND OF PRECIP IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SECTOR OF THE NORTHERN
LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE ONLY SOME
LOW POPS IN THE FAR WEST EARLY IN THE DAY BUT INCREASE POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRECIP LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING CHANCES IN THE EASTERN
TIER AND NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE GET BOTH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIP AND THE WRAP AROUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY WELL GET STUCK IN THE DRY AIR
INTRUSION. TRIED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE GRIDS...WITH PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BAND MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA AND THEN BACK OVER TO SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY UNCERTAIN WITH THE RAIN SNOW MIX BUT
FOR NOW KEPT IT UNDER 1 TO 2 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
OFF INTO NORTHEASTERN MN...WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WRAP AROUND SNOW OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH THE STRONG WINDS...THE AREAS THAT GET SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST TEMPERATURES FALL THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF BLOWING
SNOW POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR NOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE EAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT IT SHOULD BE
FAIRLY QUIET FOR THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO -10 C BY
THURSDAY SO TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW AVERAGE SEEMS LIKELY. `

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL START OFF WITH FAIRLY STEEP
NORTH-NW FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE
FA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING SOME LIGHT PCPN WITH IT. CURRENT
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS PERIOD DRY AND WILL STAY THAT COURSE FOR TODAY.
RIDGING TRIES TO SHIFT EAST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH 850MB
TEMPS SHOWING THE WARMEST PERIOD BEING SAT. MODELS HAVE THE MOST
DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH THE 12Z
GFS QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF. THEREFORE THE GFS HAS SOME
PCPN DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW MUCH LESS.
TEMPS INTO SUN/MON ALSO LOOK FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

FEEL MVFR/ISOLD IFR CIGS TO HOLD OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST
BREAKS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE VALLEY DURING THE DAY. PCPN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM VALLEY WEST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...VOELKER






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.