Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 142037
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
337 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Challenge this evening and then into tomorrow will be showers and
thunderstorms then temperatures. A short wave is riding over the
top of the 500mb ridge across the western high plains and will
drag an associated SFC trough across ND this afternoon and
evening. A couple storms have already developed west of Minot this
afternoon. This activity will move to the east and bring a threat
of a strong with the possibility of a few severe storms into the
western portion of the forecast area. Lapse rates have become
steep across the western half of ND, better than 8C/km. Combined
with increasing moisture and instability along the boundary
convective activity will be move into the the Devils Lake basin
late this afternoon and into the evening. A weakening convective
trend is expected across the valley as lapse rates and instability
will be less favorable. Primary threat is expected to be wind
gusts around 60mph and or hail up to 1.5 inches in size.
Widespread severe activity is not expected. Showers will continue
to weakening as they move to the southeast overnight.

In the wake of the system north winds will develop with drier air
filtering south. Max temps will be in the 70s north and 80s
elsewhere with full solar.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Surface high pressure shifts across northern Minnesota and provides
continued northerly flow and a somewhat drier airmass through
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Through the day on Sunday expect
fair skies and an increasing southerly return flow... with
increasing humidity and a chance for showers and thunderstorms from
Sunday night into Monday across most of the area.

Next Tuesday looks to remain dry and somewhat milder as a drier
Canadian airmass transits the north... resulting in light a variable
winds. Wednesday should see a return to southerly blayer flow but an
increase in clouds and the possibility of scattered showers and
thunderstorms could keep temperatures in the seasonably mild range.

The late week period should remain mainly dry with temperatures at
or near seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

VFR with south winds and a few gusts into the 20 to 25kt range
at GFK and possibly DVL this afternoon. Went with VCTS this
evening across the northern TAF locations. Thunderstorm placement
and timing to be refined on the 00Z TAF issuance. Post 06Z
thunderstorms and showers decreasing with winds shifting to the
NW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Gust
AVIATION...JK



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