Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 130319

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
919 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Issued at 919 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

No updates needed.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Temps are the main issue. Lower clouds in NW MN slowly clearing
eastward. Meanwhile high and mid clouds moving east and entering
NE ND. In general model RH progs have these handled pretty well.
In addition a band of low level RH from west central MN into
central/NW ND is lifting back north. It is very thin in nature in
E ND but more expansive in NW ND. HRRR has this band lifting north
into DVL basin this late aftn/eve, then moving north. Fog in NW
into central ND spreading north and should remain west of the
fcst area. However HRRR and other various short range models
indicate some fog possibly affecting far NW fcst area. Main focus
though is west of our fcst area.

How much fall in temps tonight in NE ND and far NW MN tonight? Low
level cloud cover going away but high/mid clouds moving in. Light
south wind. Should drop into the teens in the snowcover area
should occur but otherwise not a huge fall off tonight as warm
advection gets going in the low levels.

Monday will see mid/high level moisture moving through the area
and exiting the east. Warmer air moves in...with near 32F for
highs in NE ND to low 40s in non-snow areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

By Tuesday, a ridge aloft brings temperatures rebounding to near
normal values, with highs in the 30s to 40s and lows generally in
the 20s. Warming will be most dominant for areas without remaining
snowpack, generally along and south of the Highway 200 corridor. For
Tuesday night through early Wednesday, precipitation chances return
along and behind a cold front pushing across the Dakotas toward the
Great Lakes. Most model guidance suggests that this will be realized
mainly as light scattered cold rain, except for locations in
counties along the international border that could see light snow
mix in overnight and into Wednesday morning. For Wednesday, drier
high pressure builds through with a significant cooldown to highs in
the 20s to lower 30s.

Late in the week, the next hybrid low pressure system brings
precipitation chances as it pushes east from the Northern Plains to
the Great Lakes. Precipitation chances develop Thursday afternoon
and night, with better chances across the forecast area on Friday.
At this point, there is poor model confidence in the available
moisture content, so will not speculate other than to say snow
chances exist, especially for Friday in Minnesota. However there is
a signal for stronger winds as a low level jet moves through the
area Thursday night through Friday night, so the potential for
stronger winds coinciding with snowfall will need to be monitored in
the upcoming days.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

There are still MVFR clouds at KTVF and KBJI, and it is not
looking like they will move anywhere any time soon. May have to
linger them longer into the night. So far the fog has stayed to
the west of KDVL, but will have to monitor to see if it expands
back into the area tonight. Light winds continue.




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