Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1242 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Made some further tweaks to POPs as a line of showers and
thunderstorms continues to move up into our southern counties.
Some decent showers starting to develop out ahead of the main line
so will be a bit faster on bringing in some showers across the
central and northern CWA during the next few hours.

UPDATE Issued at 948 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Adjusted POPs a bit for the timing of precip coming up from SD.
Most returns are currently very light over our area but some
stronger cells are on the way from northeastern SD. Have some
likely POPs starting in the far southwestern counties in the next
few hours, then shifting north and east throughout the afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 657 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Tweaked pops for current radar conditions. No other changes to the
current forecast at this update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday night)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Upper level trough over Ontario will move southeast and drop drier
air to our east. Upper level low over NV/UT will move into eastern
ND by 12Z Sun and over western Ontario by 12z Mon. 150+m height
falls are forecast when system moves through the forecast area.
Upper low takes on some negative tilt. Also upper low opens up after
passing the area. Upper level jet segments remain on the east and
west sides of the trough through the period.

Upper level trough off the Canada west coast will move into central
Canada by the end of the period. High amplitude trough will extend
from the desert southwest to the Northern Plains to central Canada
by 12Z Sun. Then the northern portion of the trough will shear off
by 12Z Mon. Upper level jet forecast to dig on the west side of the
trough Sun night.

Precipitable water rises to over 1.5 inches Fri afternoon and again
Sat afternoon. A pocket of lower precipitable water will move
through Sat morning and again on Sun morning. Dry slot moves into
the area Sun morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

The forecast for Monday to Thursday remains one on the low side of
confidence with uncertainties on how the weekend upper level low
over the northern plains evolves. The 00z EC continues to be faster
with its northeastward progression of the wave on Monday. Whereas
the 00z Canadian/GFS and GEFS all slow down the system and pinwheel
over the Great Lakes region Monday through Wednesday. As a result
temps fields are much cooler with the latter solns under the
cyclonic flow aloft where there would continue to be more clouds and
shower chances compared to the warmer drier EC soln. Will maintain
some chance PoPs on Monday and monday night in the east with a dry
forecast for the rest of the work week and temps will gradually warm
from around 60 on Monday to near 70 for Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

All sites are VFR, but showers and storms have entered the
southwestern forecast area and will be impacting KFAR shortly. The
band of showers and storms will continue to move northeastward
towards the Canadian border by this evening, then there will be a
bit of a break before more storms fire tomorrow afternoon. Think
that most ceilings will stay VFR to start with but there will be
some deterioration as more moisture moves in from the south
tonight. Think that most sites will be MVFR tonight with IFR
towards tomorrow morning. Some of the models are putting out some
fog but will keep visibilities above 6SM for now and will monitor
how things develop behind the band of showers and storms. Some
slight recovery will be possible by the end of the period.
Southeast winds have been gusty in some areas. The gusts should
settle down although sustained southeast winds will stay around
15kts. Winds will pick up a bit by the end of the period tomorrow.




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