Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 161000
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
400 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Impacts today limited to extreme cold as winds have decreased
and blowing snow has ended with visibilities unrestricted across
the FA. Ridge axis of 1050mb SFC high pressure extends across the
western half of the FA with low clouds hanging tough in the east.
Temperatures are ranging from negative single digits in the east
under the clouds to 20s below in the favorable radiative cooling
environment with the light winds across the west. Wind chills not
quite in warning criteria across the valley as mixing seems to be
keeping temps warmer than anticipated, nonetheless will be a
brutally cold morning and will leave headlines as is with an
ending time of 17z.

Recovery today remains a bit uncertain with upstream mid level
clouds however most expected to reach zero or even a few degrees
above. Big question is how far will temps fall this evening
before mixing increases from west to east as southwest SFC winds
gradually scour out the arctic airmass overnight. Coldest temps
should be in the west central MN as this area will see the warming
SFC winds last. Expecting temps to rise through the overnight
as 925mb temps rise 10 to 15C ranging from near 10C in the
northwest to 4 below in the west. By 12Z Wednesday temperatures will
be in the single digits above zero for all but the fall east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Wednesday to Friday morning...Upper air pattern becomes more
progressive. Upper level trough off the Pacific Northwest will
move across the International border Wed night. System may produce
very light snow mostly in northern MN. Upper level ridge will
follow and move over the area late Thu. Temps forecast to moderate
this period.

Friday to Monday...Long wave pattern de-amplifies through the
period. Long wave trough over the northeast Pacific will shift
slightly east to the Pacific Northwest. The ECMWF was faster at
the beginning of the period and was a farther north solution by
the end of the period compared to the GFS. Split flow expected
through the period.

Upper level jet will nose into the area Fri morning. Warm advection
precip is expected with upper jet on Fri. Precipitation is expected
to fall over the north MN and northeast ND on fri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1156 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

MVFR at KFAR to IFR at KBJI will continue for the next few hours
over the southern and eastern forecast area, with VFR conditions
elsewhere. Some BLSN and flurries also at the cloudy TAF sites,
but that should be gone by 08Z or so. All sites should be VFR by
sunrise. Winds will continue to diminish and shift to the
southwest, picking up a bit late in the period.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Warning until 11 AM CST this morning for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...Wind Chill Warning until 11 AM CST this morning for MNZ001>005-
     007-008-013>015-022-027-029>031-040.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for MNZ006-009-
     016-017-023-024-028-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JR


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