Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230959

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
359 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Weak high pressure near Grand Forks at 09z. Drier air around the
storm to our east clearing the low clouds southwestern from NE
into central MN and the western edge of clearing is pushing into
the far SE fcst area (Park Rapids/Wadena and may get into Bemidji
for at time this morning). Otherwise clouds rule. Low clouds and
some fog in central ND from Bottineau to Bismarck and some
clearing has been working east slowly. But a surge of low clouds
associated with a NW wind shift moving into southeastern
Saskatchewan will likely return lower clouds into north central ND
thru the morning. Thus coord with WFO BIS and thinking any
clearing from the west into our western fcst area (DVL to Valley
City) will be brief. This area still stands the best risk of some
fog, but vsbys not too low. The clearing in our far SE fcst area
should end as clouds move back east this aftn. Net result is 90
pct of the fcst area to remain in the clouds today. Thus
temperatures not changing much with highs in the 20s.

500 mb wave and weak sfc low in far east central Saskatchewan to
move east southeast today...south of this system the southerly
winds 5 to 15 kts. Models continue to paint some light precip
stretching from the low southeast thru southeastern Manitoba and
into far NW Minnesota as we head toward early evening. Kept low
pops in far NW MN this evening with -sn. Decent warm advection at
850 mb so will need to watch to see if a bit more snow can form.
Right now it appears the main light snow area is closer to the 500
mb short wave which will stay to our north. Winds turn west-
northwest behind this feature late aftn/eve and with that that
secondary surge of lower clouds likely to move in. Thus for
tonights lows, I did raise them above most guidances.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

A weak clipper is expected to diminish north and east of the region
Wednesday. As the surface low fills in near northern Minnesota,
precipitation chances in the form of light snow should also
diminish. Still, some flurries may be seen Wednesday near the
international border within Minnesota.

Upper level ridging then promotes a warming trend Thursday with
breezy southerly winds building ahead of a surface low developing
west of the region. Precipitation chances increase on Friday with as
this low moves northeast. Ahead of the low`s center, strong warm air
advection may produce an environment favorable of some
drizzle/freezing drizzle dependent on surface temperatures
above/below freezing, respectively. Chances of this occurring would
be Thursday overnight into Friday morning within the strongest WAA
regime just east of the low`s center near a northward moving warm
front. As the low moves northeast through the region, an associated
cold front will sweep through from the north and west. This will
provide some light snow chances along with gusty winds. At the
moment snow accumulation potential looks to be marginal enough to
limit blowing snow chances, although ensemble spreads are still
large enough to keep this thought in mind as time draws closer to
this event.

After Friday the cold front is progged to sag across the northern
Plains leaving a baroclinic zone in place for subsequent
disturbances to travel upon. With this in mind, the chance of a few
quick shots of snow remain in the forecast Sunday through Tuesday.
The long term forecast looks to remain in a progressive and some
what active precipitation pattern into next week.

Temperatures will remain above normal this week, especially on
Thursday and Friday ahead of the approaching low. As the low`s cold
front moves through, temperatures will decrease to seasonal norms
this weekend with highs in the teens and lows near zero. Then a
steady climb back to above normal is expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

IFR conditions at DVL will persist into Tuesday morning with
improvement expected in the forenoon. MVFR CIGs will last the
entire period for the other TAF sites. Light north winds will
become south.




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