Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 060051
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FCST ON TRACK. 500 MB SHORT WAVE IN CENTRAL MANITOBA MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO TONIGHT. SOME MID CLOUDS BRUSHING THE
FAR NORTHEAST. O/W GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WINDS DIMISHING. LOWS
LOOK OK FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES. THE EXPECTED AIRMASS TEMPERATURE WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PERIODS OF
CLOUDS AND SNOW ANTICIPATED...BUT EACH SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE (LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION). THE BEST CHANCE FOR
-SN WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
WAVE EXPECTED LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TAKES A BREAK FOR A
WHILE DURING THE NEXT EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS ZONAL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD SCALE SW PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. POLAR JET REMAINS LOCKED UP IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CANADA
KEEPING SURFACE SYSTEMS AND PCPN WITH IT. DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE
FROM DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 WITH HINT OF A WAVE OR BACK DOOR TYPE COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE OF AN EAST SFC WIND FOR THURS. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 40S FIRST 3 DAYS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AT
THE END IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. EARLIER GFS RUNS THAT WERE
MARKEDLY COLDER THAN CORRESPONDING ECMWF ARE NOW TRENDING WARMER
WITH BOTH GUIDANCE SUITES INDICATING HIGHEST 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
PLUS 6 TO 10C RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PD. CLEAR OR SCATTERED CIRRUS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING CIRRUS AND THEN MID CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DIMINISHING
EARLY THIS EVENING AND MAY TURN WEST-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING BACK SOUTHWEST FRI AFTN GENERALLY IN
THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...RIDDLE






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