


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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982 FXUS63 KFGF 150905 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 405 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms for portions of west central Minnesota this afternoon. Hazards could include damaging wind gusts and hail. Threat though is dependent on location of front, and threat area may end up being farther south. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...Synopsis... The 850 mb warm advection is the likely cause of t-storm development 02z period in central into northeast ND just north of a surface boundary and south of the 850 mb front. This warm advection area moved into northwest MN after 06z and is moving out. The sfc front is moving south, mostly propelled by cooler, rain cooled air to the north. Rain amounts the past 12 hours has been spotty with most areas incl Fargo and Grand Forks getting nothing significant while pockets of 1+ inch rains occurred in Roseau, Marshall, Lake of the Woods region and spotty areas south of Harvey ND. Let the severe t-storm watch go at 345 am for all areas. For today will see the front drop south/southeast and likely be near Wadena-Elbow Lake area early aftn. Short term models show instability developing mid aftn just south of the fcst area more along an axis from Duluth-Hibbing to Alexandria to Watertown SD and south. The updated day 1 SPC outlook brushes far southeast fcst area in marginal risk with slight risk close by. Feeling that any severe threat is likely out of our cwa though, but will mention as slight chc of strong/severe storm in messaging for marginal outlook area per SPC until confidence of missing that increases. Meanwhile as a 500 mb low spinning in southeast BC and northeast Washington state will slowly move east-southeast. An area of 700 mb frontogenetic forcing early this morning east into west central ND with an area of rain and t-storms. The strongest forcing will end up in south central ND later this morning but still would anticipate a period of showers and a few t-storms moving east- southeast thru the area on the north side of the sfc front. Highest pops midday into the aftn SE ND in the forcing zone. The actual 500 mb wave will move thru SD into southern MN Wednesday giving higher chances for rain in the southern fcst area and points south. Late week into early next week shows the 500 mb pattern remaining the same with upper waves moving thru giving chances for showers and t-storms....one Friday and one Sunday. Severe weather chances Friday look low, but long range machine learning progs indicate some chance Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1122 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 TAFs are messy throughout the period due to thunderstorms and smoke. Best guesses on thunderstorm timing is in this set of TAFs for the overnight period. After initial strong storms which have the highest chance of impacting KGFK, KTVF and KBJI, more showers and some thunder will continue into Tuesday morning. After storms clear, a band of potentially thick smoke pushes down from Canada mid afternoon. This smoke may bring MVFR visibilities. Too much uncertainty at this time to add it the TAFs, but the most favorable time for this would be in the from group that has 6SM FU in it. Smoke should clear slowly late in the evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Rafferty