982
FXUS63 KFGF 150905
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
405 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 1 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms for
  portions of west central Minnesota this afternoon. Hazards
  could include damaging wind gusts and hail. Threat though is
  dependent on location of front, and threat area may end up
  being farther south.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...Synopsis...

The 850 mb warm advection is the likely cause of t-storm
development 02z period in central into northeast ND just north
of a surface boundary and south of the 850 mb front. This warm
advection area moved into northwest MN after 06z and is moving
out. The sfc front is moving south, mostly propelled by cooler,
rain cooled air to the north. Rain amounts the past 12 hours
has been spotty with most areas incl Fargo and Grand Forks
getting nothing significant while pockets of 1+ inch rains
occurred in Roseau, Marshall, Lake of the Woods region and
spotty areas south of Harvey ND.

Let the severe t-storm watch go at 345 am for all areas. For
today will see the front drop south/southeast and likely be near
Wadena-Elbow Lake area early aftn. Short term models show
instability developing mid aftn just south of the fcst area more
along an axis from Duluth-Hibbing to Alexandria to Watertown SD
and south. The updated day 1 SPC outlook brushes far southeast
fcst area in marginal risk with slight risk close by. Feeling
that any severe threat is likely out of our cwa though, but will
mention as slight chc of strong/severe storm in messaging for
marginal outlook area per SPC until confidence of missing that
increases.


Meanwhile as a 500 mb low spinning in southeast BC
and northeast Washington state will slowly move east-southeast.
An area of 700 mb frontogenetic forcing early this morning east
into west central ND with an area of rain and t-storms. The
strongest forcing will end up in south central ND later this
morning but still would anticipate a period of showers and a few
t-storms moving east- southeast thru the area on the north side
of the sfc front. Highest pops midday into the aftn SE ND in the
forcing zone.

The actual 500 mb wave will move thru SD into southern MN
Wednesday giving higher chances for rain in the southern fcst
area and points south.

Late week into early next week shows the 500 mb pattern
remaining the same with upper waves moving thru giving chances
for showers and t-storms....one Friday and one Sunday. Severe
weather chances Friday look low, but long range machine learning progs
indicate some chance Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

TAFs are messy throughout the period due to thunderstorms and
smoke. Best guesses on thunderstorm timing is in this set of
TAFs for the overnight period. After initial strong storms which
have the highest chance of impacting KGFK, KTVF and KBJI,
more showers and some thunder will continue into Tuesday
morning. After storms clear, a band of potentially thick smoke
pushes down from Canada mid afternoon. This smoke may bring MVFR
visibilities. Too much uncertainty at this time to add it the
TAFs, but the most favorable time for this would be in the from
group that has 6SM FU in it. Smoke should clear slowly late in
the evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Rafferty