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000
FXUS63 KFGF 270917
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
317 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND MIDWEEK SNOW CHANCES.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND.

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL HINGE ON WHAT
CURRENT CLOUD COVER DOES DURING THE DAY. CURRENT STRATUS CLOUD
SHIELD EXTENDS FROM VALLEY EASTWARD. MODELS CURRENTLY NOT HANDLING
CLOUD TRENDS WELL AT ALL AND HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON WHAT CLOUDS
WILL DO. HIGH RESOLUTION (HRRR) WAY TOO FAR WEST WITH LOWER CIGS
WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOIST
EASTWARD. GFS AND TO A DEGREE THE NAM WANT TO CLEAR OUT THE VALLEY
AND DEVELOP LOWER CIGS WEST OF THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE S-SW DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WESTERN EDGE SHOULD ERODE BUT MAY
BE TOO LATE FOR SOLAR TO AID IN WARMING. WITH UNCERTAINTY DID NOT
DIFFER TOO MUCH ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

REGION REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT FOR ANOTHER MILD NIGHT.

COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SAG INTO THE FA WEDNESDAY. DURING THE DAY
MODELS SLOWER IN BRINGING PCPN INTO THE FA AND KEEP MOST
APPRECIABLE QPF NORTH OF THE BORDER. WITH MODELS TRENDING FOR
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PCPN AND DELAY IN BRINGING MOISTURE SOUTH OF
INL BORDER DELAYED/TRIMMED POPS DURING THE AM AND HELD WITH CHANCE
POPS DURING THE DAY AS ECMWF AND NAM NEARLY DRY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MORE FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
SO MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS AND DECREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WAVE PUSHES EAST.

TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER TO FINISH OFF THE WORK WEEK BUT STILL ON THE
WARM SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF SAGS OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL SHIFT SE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS
EXPECTED AND THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUIET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FAR AND DVL COULD SEE SOME BR OR FG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE
WINDS ARE CALM. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING AS SE FLOW
PICKS UP. FOR NORTHWEST AND W CNTRL MN...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
INHIBIT VSBYS FROM FALLING TOO DRASTICALLY BUT CIGS HAVE DROPPED
INTO IFR RANGE AND 06Z TAFS WILL REFLECT THIS. THE HRRR DOES KEEP
THE IFR CONDS IN FOR MUCH OF MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW...HOWEVER
WITH INCREASING SE FLOW THINK WE WILL SEE IMPROVED CONDS BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER