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000
FXUS63 KFGF 271945
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
245 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

A good chance for showers and thunderstorms continues for tonight
as an upper level wave pushes through the region. An area of mid
level frontogenesis has brought cloud cover and a few isolated
showers/thunderstorms to far SE ND this afternoon. The elevated
instability (around 100 to 250 J/kg) drops off considerably as the
activity moves east into MN based on the 2 PM mesoscale analysis.
Still, the best chance will come tonight, primarily after
midnight. MU CAPEs of 750 to 1500 J/kg and shear of 15 to 30kts
could produce a few severe storms, but the severe threat should be
limited.

Rain chances increase as the wave moves into MN after midnight
...where the best chance for an inch rain will be. Low clouds will
move into the region tonight as well...and will be slow to move
off Wednesday morning. Believe parts of MN will not shake the low
clouds and stay cool and cloudy all day. Showers and thunderstorms
will likely continue through the morning and into the afternoon
across NW MN...exiting the Lake of the Woods region late in the
day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Another chance for rain will come on Thursday and Friday as an
upper low moves through the region. Temps will be warm on Thursday
ahead of the upper low...but then will cool off to the mid 60s
and low 70s by Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected...but the severe threat will be low Thursday and Friday.

Another in a series of semi-permanent upper lows will be swirling
over southern Manitoba early in the weekend accompanied by the usual
nondescript synoptic surface flow. Generally the area will see more
clouds than sun with below average temperatures and periodic shower
chances from Fri night through Sat night. By Sunday 500mb ridging
begins working into the northern plains with an associated boost in
850 mb temps into the positive double digits. This warm air
advection will continue through Independence Day. Flow will remain
zonal versus southwest for the second half of the period resulting
in low but not negligible pcpn chances as temps continue to rise to
the mid and upper eighties by Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Thunderstorms will be moving into the region this evening and
we`ll also be seeing some ifr cigs in areas late tonight as well.
Recent model runs have been consistent in this low deck following
the thunderstorm activity and lingering into the morning hours
across much of the areas. Low cigs may linger into the afternoon
hours...especially at BJI and TVF.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...Knutsvig/WJB
AVIATION...Knutsvig