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000
FXUS63 KFGF 190007
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
707 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 704 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Convection over the southeast is moving southeast at 10 mph and
should soon exit the area. A few isolated storms across the
northeast will continue to weaken. Primary changes to fcst made
early as a few stronger cells developed over Norman/Clay counties
where LI index values were in the neg 4 to neg 5 range. Expect
clearing tonight as cu NW of sfc boundary will dissipate with
sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

In spite of weak shear and relatively unfavorable mid level lapse
rates, sct thunderstorms will continue across mainly west central
Mn into the evening. Cape around 1000j/kg, lifted indices around
-5 and mid level cold pool sufficient convective parameters vcnty
 of slowly departing upper low for ongoing convection. Cells
 strong enough to briefly produce up to 1 inch hail. Could also
 see areas of localized heavy rainfall with slow moving cells.
 Conditions should improve by early evening as upper low departs.
 Clearing overnight with minimums generally in the mid 50s.

Warm advection and mixing should allow temperatures to finally
recover above average for Saturday. Along with this comes fire
weather concerns over nw Mn which have escaped recent rains. With
winds possibly gusting into the mid 20s, RH values dropping into
the mid 30s and highs in the 80s fire weather partners indicating
concern and will need to monitor conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Late Saturday night, a cold front pushes across the area from west
to east. This looks to be a drier frontal passage with such brief
duration of the return flow. Still may see isolated storms in
northwest and west central MN overnight as low level jet provides
additional forcing, but the models suggest that weak instability and
upper level forcing and lack of deep layer moisture greatly limit
potential for severe storms. After this system rushes through,
Sunday will be generally dry with high pressure building in from
Alberta. This will result in near normal temperatures, before a weak
shortwave aloft bring small chances for showers to the Devils Lake
basin region, southeast ND, and west central MN late Sunday night
into early Monday.

Early next week, zonal flow aloft yields an active weather pattern
with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. For Monday and
Tuesday, increased cloud cover and small chances for showers and
storms continue on and off as a low pressure system cuts through the
Central Plains and weak shortwave disturbances pass to the north
through the Northern Plains. For the Tuesday night through Thursday
period, high pressure pushes through and brings dry and cooler
weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

VFR with some storms just east of BJI moving away from the
aerodrome. Expect mostly clear skies tonight. Winds will increase
from S-SW on Saturday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Speicher
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...Speicher