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000
FXUS63 KFGF 072058
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
258 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES...WITH
THE MAIN CHALLENGES TEMPS AS WE BEGIN TO WARM UP. WILL UTILIZE A
MODEL BLEND AND LEAN ON THE SLIGHTLY WARMER ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE
ONCE WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS ON SUNDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...ONE MORE COLD NIGHT TO GET THROUGH AS A SFC HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. MOST AREAS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO...AND
EXPECT THE NORTHERN VALLEY WHERE SOME FRESH SNOW FELL LAST NIGHT
TO FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 BELOW...PERHAPS LOCALLY COLDER.

ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
COULD ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL WARM TODAYS
READINGS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND DRY.

FOR SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WON/T FALL MUCH WITH WAA AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPS COULD ACTUALLY SLOWLY RISE LATE IN THE
NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +5C BY 12Z SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MOST AREAS APPROACHING 40 AT LEAST ON SUNDAY. TEMPS COULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY WITH SOME MID LEVEL COOLING...BUT GIVEN
WESTERLY SFC TRAJECTORY IT WON/T BE MUCH COOLER. THERE WILL BE A
LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN THE FAR NE CLOSER TO THE
SFC BOUNDARY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AS IT WILL BE
DRY FOR MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS AND MILD.

FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PHASED WAVE TO COME ABOARD OF PAC
NW AS EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS ROLLING WITH GUIDANCE AGREEING IN
SPLITTING FLOW AS IT TRAVERSES ROCKIES. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MORE NW FLOW...BUT WITH SEASONABLY COOL AIR
TO START AROUND MID WEEK. THESE MODELS GO OUT OF PHASE LATER IN
THE WEEK HOWEVER WITH GFS DIGGING SOMETHING SOUTH OF HERE AND
ECMWF WITH A MORE ZONAL SCENARIO. A BLEND OF THESE OFFERS SLIGHT
POPS FOR PART OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND MILDER TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS
HOLDING CLOSE EITHER SIDE OF THE ZERO MARK WILL PORTEND ANOTHER
MIXED BAG TYPE OF EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

BLSN CONTINUES TO REDUCE VSBY TO IFR VICINITY KGFK WITH POCKETS OF
-SN AFFECTING KBJI AND KFAR. NNW WINDS OVER 20 KTS SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON...FIRST AT KDVL THEN TO THE EAST. VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL REGION WIDE FROM LATE AFTERNOON ON AS WINDS EASE TO BELOW 10
KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...WJB/DK
AVIATION...DK