Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KFGF 220240

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
940 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017


Issued at 940 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Only change for this update was to cut back on PoPs a bit for the
rest of the evening and early overnight. Areal coverage of
precipitation has decreased quite a bit with just some scattered
light rain or drizzle reports. Still think things will become more
widespread later tonight and towards morning as the upper low
tracks back to the west and allows the better forcing to return.

UPDATE Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Not much for updates needed early this evening. Scattered light
showers continue up and down the majority of the Red River Valley
and over into northwestern Minnesota. Latest hi-res runs keep
these showers moving from northwest to southeast as the 500 mb low
continues to slowly propagate towards far northern
Minnesota/southwestern Ontario. This movement should keep the far
western forecast area and extreme southern valley dry throughout
the evening and into the overnight before the low begins to
retrograde a bit back towards our area.

Will have to keep an eye on temperatures as we head into the
overnight as readings are still hanging into the low to mid 50s
(with the exception of the cooler 40s across the far east).


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)

Issued at 319 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Area will be under the influence of an 500 mb low which will be
over Minnesota into Monday. The center of the low is advancing
north this mid aftn into the arrowhead region and this upper low
will move north into Ontario then west and back south into north
central MN Monday aftn. Scattered rain showers will continue
around the upper low...tonight more confined to areas east and
north of a Langdon-Grand Forks-Wadena line...then threat for
showers will increase Monday midday-aftn in NW MN as center of low
moves close by. Net result was to keep sct rw- thru the night into
Monday RRV and NW MN, with a period higher pops NW MN Monday aftn.

To the west an upper wave is moving south thru Saskatchewan and
this will drop south thru the next 24 hrs thru wrn ND into SD.
Scattered showers and t-storms with this will stay west of our
fcst area. Thus Devils Lake-Valley City region mostly in between
these two systems thru Monday and has less chance for rain. Temps
will remain below normal daytime Monday...though some sunny breaks
DVL region into SE ND should push that area into the low 60s vs
50s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)

Issued at 319 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

500 mb low will drop south Monday night into Tuesday. Continued
chc of showers Monday night and then improving weather Tuesday
from the northwest as the upper low departs. Wednesday will see
sunshine return and warmer temps as a brief ridge builds in.

For Thursday and Friday...expect temperatures in the low 70s ahead
of a low pressure system slowly shifting east across the area
bringing increased chances for showers or storms. By Saturday and
Sunday...the system continues progressing east with an upper trof
shifting over the area...bringing slightly cooler temperatures to
the region. A few weak disturbances will propagate around the base
of the trof...triggering periods of light precipitation through
the end of the forecast period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)

Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

As an upper low across northeast Minnesota/far southwest Ontario
continues to impact the area, plenty of low level moisture and
associated clouds will stick around through the period. The worst
conditions will persist at KTVF and KBJI (MVFR ceilings with
scattered showers) with KBJI possibly even dipping to IFR for a
few hours overnight. Ceilings have improved to low end VFR at KGFK
and KFAR and should stay that way with on and off shower chances.
KDVL should stay dry through the overnight before the chance for
scattered showers makes its way further west as the upper low
backtracks a bit. Northwest winds 10-15 kts to continue.




LONG TERM...Hopkins/Riddle
AVIATION...Lee is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.