Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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336
FXUS63 KFGF 210703
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
103 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 102 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Low visibilities have spread into the Devils Lake area and web
cams show surrounding areas becoming quite foggy. Did a quick
update to include Towner, Benson, and Ramsey counties in the Dense
Fog Advisory.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

The main challenges and impacts through the short term will again
be fog/dz/fzdz potential and any measurable pcpn potential across
the far north tonight and region wide tomorrow. Short range/high
resolution model solutions in good agreement and will follow for
pops.

Upper low to continue to drift north through ND tonight.  Band of
radar returns over the NE FA in zone of deeper layered rh in warm
conveyer belt should also continue to lift north and affect mainly
areas along the Mn International border area this evening. This
area stands to see the best potential for some mixed pcpn.
Temperatures remain in the mid/upper 30s and not likely to fall
off too far so not anticipating any significant travel issues.
Elsewhere mid levels remain relatively dry so fog and the
potential for dz/fzdz will continue overnight. At this point not
very confident on dense fog but will need to monitor. Modest isentropic
lift tonight exists from the valley east so this would appear to
be the favored location for dz/fzdz overnight. The column does
cool some overnight so minimum temperatures expected to range a
few degrees either side of freezing. With cooler temperatures
potential for difficult travel for fzdz will have to be monitored.

Not much change for Saturday. Maintained general chance pops as
tough to pin down any particular area favorable for mixed pcpn.
Column does not really moisten much so may be another day of fog
and some form of drizzle vs -ra/sn/zr. Also best forcing with next
wave looks to be to our south and east. Temperatures expected to
range a few degrees above freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

A mainly stagnant pattern remains in place over the area to start
the period.  Cloudy skies are expected to continue as the low levels
remain moist due to above freezing temperatures and snow melt. A
weak upper level trof may trigger light precipitation accumulations.
With the warmer surface and boundary layer temperatures...look for
the main precipitation types to be rain or drizzle. Cooler
temperatures forecast in the Devils Lake Basin may result in some
light freezing precipitation in that area.

A system will impact parts of the region as the upper pattern begins
to shift with more southwest flow aloft.  This system is expected to
develop over the central plains on Monday...and model guidance keeps
the track farther south of the area as it moves northeast on
Tuesday. The system will skirt the far southeastern zones on Tuesday
bringing some light snow. An inverted trof may spread a bit more
light snow across the rest of the area through Tuesday night into
Wednesday. At this point...accumulations will be light.

Behind the system...temps will cool a bit but overall temperatures
will trend above seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

For most areas expect IFR conditions thru the pd. Most areas with
cigs blo 1000 ft agl. A few areas, such as TVF with MVFR cigs but
do suspect that will not last long. Vsbys in fog likely a bit more
variable but overall lowest at DVL/BJI. Winds southeast 5-10 kts
turning more easterly Saturday aftn/eve.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026-028-029-038-049-052-054.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Riddle



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