Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 141754
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1254 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

This Morning:
A weak mid-level shortwave is moving east over primarily
Southeast SD while a well-defined region of moist isentropic
ascent in the 315-320K layer is spreading over southern Nebraska &
northern KS. Both have combined to produce a cluster of
thunderstorms over far southeast Nebraska & northeast KS. The
lowest ~10,000ft of the air mass is quite dry so rainfalls should
be minimal. Regardless, with the mid-level shortwave continuing to
scoot east, most of the convection would remain NE of KICT
Country.

This Afternoon:
A strong, positively-tilted upper-deck wave that during the night
extends from Northern Saskatchewan to just off the WA/OR coast
will dig sharply as it approaches the Great Basin. This character
will eject a somewhat stronger mid-level shortwave east toward the
the Central Rockies. A surface low will develop close to the
CO/KS border to induce stronger southerly flow across KS. As such,
it`ll be hotter with highs reaching the upper 90s in Central KS &
~95 in South-Central KS.

Tonight:
With a more assertive southerly flow lows would likewise be
warmer than the past 3 or nights. As the 2nd mid-level shortwave
crosses the Southern Rockies moist advection would increase ahead
of a SE moving cold front venturing toward, & perhaps into,
Northern Nebraska. How far SE the front will progress is still in
question, but if thunderstorms can develop, they would do so over
Northwest Kansas & Western Nebraska.

This Weekend:
The "stars of the show" continue to be the western U.S. upper-
deck wave & its attendant cold front. With broad & STRONG mid-
upper deck ridging nearly covering the southeastern half of the
U.S. the upper-deck wave would lift & surge NE across the Northern
Plains & in the process assume a negative tilt as it crosses the
Dakotas late Sat night. This would cause the attendant SE-moving
cold front to move further into Nebraska & Northwest KS late Fri
night & Sat. The front should decelerate as it ventures further
into KS Sat Night when thunderstorms should increase.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

The upper-deck wave`s behavior would likely cause the front to
stall in an almost E/W manner as it approaches the KS/OK border on
Sun. This is further south than was depicted the past 2 nights.
With the strong mid-upper-deck wave continuing to surge NE into
Ontario Sun Night the front would likely weaken on Mon. Richer
moisture pooling along the decelerating but weakening front would
induce scattered thunderstorms to continue for much of the
upcoming weak.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Gusty south winds will
prevail this afternoon, subsiding some this evening, before
increasing again Friday morning.

An increasing low-level jet around 1500-2500 ft AGL will support
low-level wind shear for most sites from around midnight into
early Friday morning.

Good 800-600mb isentropic ascent signal apparent in most models
should support isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms late
tonight into Friday morning, generally along/west of I-135. Added
VCSH to Russell and Great Bend, and may eventually need to
consider the same at Hutchinson, Salina and Wichita.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    94  69  93  71 /   0  10  10  10
Hutchinson      96  68  92  70 /  10  10  20  10
Newton          94  68  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
ElDorado        92  68  92  70 /  10  10  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   93  69  92  71 /   0  10  10  10
Russell         98  69  94  69 /  10  20  20  10
Great Bend      97  68  93  69 /  10  20  20  10
Salina          97  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
McPherson       95  68  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
Coffeyville     90  67  91  70 /   0   0   0  20
Chanute         88  66  89  69 /  10   0   0  20
Iola            88  66  89  68 /  10   0   0  20
Parsons-KPPF    89  67  90  70 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...ADK



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