Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 201124
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
624 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

The mid/upper level low will lift slowly northeast across Nebraska
today and into the Upper Midwest by late tonight. A brisk and cooler
northwest surface flow will prevail in the systems wake today with
any lingering showers exiting the area during the morning. Clouds
will be slow to scour in the moist cyclonic flow around the
departing surface/low level cyclone with even limited heating
tending to develop some diurnal stratocu in areas that partially
clear. Rapid clearing and diminishing winds this evening/tonight
will allow for a rather chilly night with lows well below climo.
The weekend will finish dry and warmer with highs closer to mid-
May climo. An upper trof rotating within the developing mean
longwave and around the upper low centered over western Ontario
province will drop south across the northern Plains during Monday.
While some elevated convection is possible early Monday morning,
modest moisture return ahead of the associated surface cold front
is expected to result in MLCAPE values around 1200 j/kg by Monday
afternoon. This in combo with modest deep layer shear around 35
kts may support marginally strong storms along the cold front as
it moves south across the forecast area late Monday afternoon and
evening.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

A significant upper trof will continue to drop south and east
across the central CONUS which will amplify the mean longwave
over the eastern CONUS through mid-week. This will allow
cooler air to advect south across Kansas on Tuesday. Some light
precip chances will be maintained as well with generally dry
weather and a warming trend by Thursday as a shortwave ridge
translates east across the area. Troughing over the western CONUS
and the influence of minor perturbations which ripple downstream
over the Plains could give rise to slight precip/convective
chances by Friday and into the start of the holiday weekend.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

MVFR will prevail through the morning hours before conditions
begin to improve with VFR anticipated this afternoon and tonight.
There will be a transient period of IFR/LIFR across Southeast KS
where some -DZ will exist before the front pushes east of the
area by 13-14Z. Breezy northwest winds at 15-20 knots will also be
common before diminishing this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  45  74  55 /  10   0  10  30
Hutchinson      63  43  73  54 /  10   0  10  40
Newton          62  43  72  54 /  10   0  10  40
ElDorado        64  44  73  54 /  10   0  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   66  45  75  55 /  10   0   0  20
Russell         59  40  73  52 /  20   0  10  50
Great Bend      60  41  73  52 /  10   0  10  50
Salina          62  42  73  54 /  20   0   0  50
McPherson       62  42  73  53 /  10   0  10  40
Coffeyville     70  46  74  54 /  20   0   0  10
Chanute         68  45  72  53 /  20   0   0  10
Iola            67  45  72  52 /  20   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    69  46  73  53 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...MWM



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