Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 180835
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
335 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Elevated moisture transport on a modest low level jet will nose
into central Kansas toward 12z resulting in an area of weak to
modest instability. The latest RAP/HRRR develop some convection
eastward along the I-70 corridor and latest radar showed some
weak echoes west of Hays just after 08z. So current small PoP
looks reasonable across central Kansas this morning. A small
chance for elevated convection will be maintained tonight mainly
north of I-70, as the surface front which sags south into far
northern Kansas late today, begins to migrate north as a warm
front overnight. Otherwise, a more significant chance for deep
convection will arrive late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
night, as a more vigorous upper trof moves east across the
northern/central Plains. The increased westerly flow aloft will
result in stronger deep layer shear as a cold front overtakes the
dry-line across central Kansas. Despite initial capping in place
during the early afternoon on Wednesday, the convergence along
the front looks more than adequate to initiate/sustain convection
by Wednesday evening as it moves southeast across the forecast
area. MLCAPE values early on in excess of 2000 J/KG and bulk shear
values at or above 40kts will promote organized severe convection
with supercell structures possible with a large hail risk, though
something more linear is expected as the evening progresses with
more of a damaging wind risk. A much cooler, near seasonable
airmass will advect south across Kansas on Thursday behind the
mid-week cold front with lingering precip chances diminishing
across southeast Kansas during the day.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

A closed upper low is still progged to evolve across the central
High Plains on Friday with the deepening tropospheric low moving
east across Kansas and into Missouri through Saturday. Modest to
strong moisture transport in the isentropic lift regime ahead of
the upper low will get the rainy and occasionally stormy pattern
going on Friday. While the more unstable surface warm sector
should remain just south of Kansas, the stronger winds and
diffluent flow aloft Friday afternoon and evening will overspread
southeast Kansas where modest elevated instability should be
present. So besides locally heavy rainfall, a few strong storms
will also be possible. As the system begins to pull away later on
Saturday, much of the area looks to be affected by the wrap-
around precip and perhaps the southern edge of the trailing upper
deformation zone. For now a dry and general moderating trend in
temperatures seem reasonable into early next week.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Cigs wl deteriorate csdrbly late tngt (~09Z) acrs Cntrl & SE KS as
S/SE winds fm 5-13kts advct incrg mstr acrs KS. LIFR Stratus is
lkly acrs SC & SE KS twd 12Z but breakage in the Stratus deck shud
ocr at both terminals ~15Z as sly flow incrs. Cntrl KS terminals
shud experience IFR cigs twd 12Z but such cigs would be short-lived
as incr`g sly flow would enable cigs to quickly achieve MVFR status
by 15Z.

ES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    79  61  81  53 /  10  10  10  50
Hutchinson      79  61  82  51 /  10  10  10  50
Newton          77  60  80  50 /  10  10  10  50
ElDorado        79  61  82  53 /  10  10  10  50
Winfield-KWLD   79  62  82  56 /  10  10   0  50
Russell         79  60  84  46 /  20  20  10  20
Great Bend      79  60  84  47 /  20  10  10  20
Salina          80  63  83  49 /  20  20  20  40
McPherson       79  61  81  50 /  10  10  10  50
Coffeyville     79  61  82  58 /  10  10   0  40
Chanute         78  61  81  56 /  10  10   0  40
Iola            78  61  81  56 /  10  10   0  40
Parsons-KPPF    79  61  81  57 /  10  10   0  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...EPS



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