Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 021805
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1205 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE COMBINED WITH LOCAL RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SLOT RACING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS....WHICH
WILL TAPER OFF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF AS DRY SLOT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. MEANWHILE...THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF SNOW LOOKS TO PIVOT
EASTWARD BACK INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. WE DID LOWER THE SNOW TOTALS FURTHER AS
THE STRONGER LIFT LOOKS TO BE BRIEF FOR CENTRAL KANSAS...THIS ALSO
RESULTED IN A CANCELLATION OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING DOWN TO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE 1-4
INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
OTHERWISE THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING LIKELY. THE
STRONGER WINDS AND COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WE DID HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AS DEEPER MIXING FROM CLEARING
SKIES LOOKS TO TAP INTO HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT AND BRING THEM
DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL WARMING FOR THURSDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...HOWEVER NOT ANTICIPATING IT TO
BECOME A BIG WARM-UP LIKE WE WITNESSED THIS PAST FRIDAY-SUNDAY.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUES SOUTHEAST INTO
TEXAS COME SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM FOR KANSAS...WITH MOISTURE EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THIS FAR NORTH
AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. OTHERWISE...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE
SHOWING A PATTERN CHANGE COMING WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH BEING
CARVED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO
SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

IFR/LIFR CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE KRSL & KGBD TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE MVFR CIGS EXPAND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WHILE A FEW FLURRIES COULD MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CIGS...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM. SPEEDS
MAY APPROACH 25-28 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE AFTER 08-10Z WITH VFR PREVAILING THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  23  38  21 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      44  22  36  19 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          43  22  35  20 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        48  23  36  21 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  24  39  21 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELL         33  17  31  13 /  80  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      37  18  32  15 /  30  10  10   0
SALINA          43  22  32  17 /  40  30  10   0
MCPHERSON       42  22  34  18 /  20  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     58  27  40  22 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         55  26  38  21 /  10  10  10   0
IOLA            53  26  37  21 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    57  26  39  21 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-
033-047-048.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ070>072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

$$


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