Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 112344
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
644 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

A SPRAWLING MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WITH LIGHT MID LEVEL FLOW
SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF A SUMMER REGIME.

OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED PULSE-TYPE DIURNAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PV ANOMALY
OVER THE PAC NW THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS FROM
LATE SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS ARE
EXPECTED NORTH OF THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WHERE POOLING DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S ARE ANTICIPATED. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
SSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ADVECT DRIER AIR ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LIMITING INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT.

THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHERE CONVERGENCE
WILL BE LACKING WITHIN A LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENT REGIME SO CONFIDENCE
IN MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. AN ANOMALOUS LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA/GREAT LAKES
AREAS BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR TO THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH
MINIMAL CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE BIG
STORY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
TUE-WED GRADUALLY CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TAF PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER SOUTHWEST KS ON FRI WITH THE STRONGER WESTERLIES REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK FRONT WILL TRY TO WORK
DOWN TO NEAR I-70 AROUND 03Z SUN. WITH LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT NOT
CONFIDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT. CURRENTLY AM
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL KS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  97  70  92 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      72  97  70  88 /  10  10  20  20
NEWTON          71  96  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
ELDORADO        70  94  69  92 /  10  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  96  70  96 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELL         71  98  68  88 /  10  20  40  20
GREAT BEND      70  98  68  87 /  10  10  30  20
SALINA          74  99  72  89 /   0  10  40  20
MCPHERSON       71  97  70  88 /  10  10  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     70  96  72  98 /  10  10  10  20
CHANUTE         71  95  71  94 /  10  10  10  20
IOLA            71  94  71  92 /  10  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    71  96  72  95 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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