Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 251746
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1146 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SOAR AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY ACROSS
KANSAS...WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT A PREMIUM AND COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING ALSO AIDING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE WE RAISED
DAYTIME HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REALLY TIGHTEN UP BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GIVE WAY TO VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH
SPEEDS LIKELY HITTING ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES THIS EVENING. THERE
ALSO COULD BE A FLEET FOOTED SOUTHEAST MOVING BAND OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIX JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE ARCTIC AIR QUICKLY COOLS AND
SATURATES A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING.

MEANWHILE THE ARCTIC AIR OCCUPATION WILL REMAIN VERY WELL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS KANSAS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND SUB ZERO WINDCHILLS DURING THE MORNING AND NIGHT TIME
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND TO
MAKE THINGS EVEN WORSE THERE ARE SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG WINTER
WEATHER SIGNALS FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG AND REMAIN OVER
SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR A FEW DAYS...WITH A POWERFUL ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN WITH
A STEEPLY SLOPED LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...WITH ARCTIC
AIR TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND PROLONGED PERIODS OF STRONG
OVER-RUNNING OF WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS KANSAS. THE POSSIBLE WINTER
EVENT LOOKS TO START OUT AS ALL SNOW FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING A
WARM NOSE OF AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WHICH COULD CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO A
PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WE EXPECT TO SEE MORE MODEL
CHANGES ON TIMING/LOCATION OF THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES DUE
TO THIS SYSTEM STILL BE SEVERAL DAYS OUT...HOWEVER DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO WATCH GIVEN THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP AND A POSSIBLE LONG
DURATION OF WINTER PRECIPITATION.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL KANSAS AND
ITS ASSOCIATED WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM
SHALL SHIFT SOUTH WITH THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE TO
THINK THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY IMPACT TO THE TAF SITES BEYOND A
COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONALLY THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL
OCCURRENCE OF PRECIP LED TO THE DECISION TO CONTINUE THE DRY
TREND AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. LOWER CLOUD DECKS OF AROUND 5K
FEET FOR MOST SITES SHOULD LIFT TO NEAR A 25K FEET BY 12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OF VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...BUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO EXPECTED COLD TEMPERATURES AND A
POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTER PRECIPITATION FOR THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  16  23   6 /  10  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      58  14  22   4 /  20  20  10   0
NEWTON          58  12  21   3 /  10  20  10   0
ELDORADO        57  14  22   5 /  10  20  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  17  24   7 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELL         57  11  20   2 /  20  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      58  13  21   4 /  20  10  10   0
SALINA          57  13  21   3 /  20  20  10   0
MCPHERSON       58  13  21   3 /  20  30  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     52  20  26   8 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         54  17  23   6 /  10  20  10   0
IOLA            54  16  22   5 /  10  30  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    53  18  25   7 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
KSZ047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR KSZ032-033.

&&

$$



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