618
FXUS63 KICT 090831
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
331 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances this afternoon-tonight, but confidence is low.

- Off-and-on thunderstorm chances Thursday evening through mid next
  week.

- Warming trend through Friday, with a cool down this weekend.
  Another cool down possible by mid-late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

PRECIPITATION:

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...The overall thunderstorm forecast
confidence today-tonight is low. 850-700mb warm advection and
moisture transport is supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development early this morning across southern SD and NE. Short-term
guidance is struggling on where to track this convection, especially
the 00z runs of the 3km NAM, NSSL-WRF, and WRF-ARW, with some of
this guidance barreling a thunderstorm complex south into the
forecast area as early as this morning. Thinking these solutions are
overdone. A more plausible scenario is increasing isolated to
scattered thunderstorm chances from the northwest this evening-
tonight, especially over central KS. If storms can manage to form,
strong instability in concert with marginal shear will support at
least an isolated severe threat, with the main threats damaging
winds and marginal hail.

THURSDAY EVENING-NIGHT...A potent shortwave approaching from the
west is expected to initiate scattered to numerous thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon across the western High Plains in vicinity of a
lee trough. This activity should then track east-southeast into the
forecast area during the evening-night. Strong instability along
with slightly better shear should support a hail/wind threat,
especially northwest of the forecast area. By the time activity
reaches central KS, the primary hazards should be isolated damaging
wind gusts.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...A strong cold front approaching from the
north will likely be the focus for scattered thunderstorms Friday
afternoon-evening-night across the region. As has been the case,
strong instability and marginal shear will support a handful of
strong to severe storms, along with locally heavy rain.

THIS WEEKEND-MID NEXT WEEK...The unsettled weather pattern
continues, with off-and-on shower/thunderstorm chances continuing in
vicinity of a stalled frontal zone amidst additional upper energy
approaching from the west. Thinking chances this weekend will be
best over southern KS. As we take a look ahead, deterministic
consensus progress a strong cold front into the region by Tuesday
night or Wednesday, supporting additional storm chances.

TEMPERATURES:

A building upper ridge will support warming temperatures this week,
reaching the mid-upper 90s by Thursday-Friday. Thereafter, a cold
front will support a cool down this weekend back into the 80s to
near 90 degrees. With deterministic and ensemble consensus keeping
the upper ridge at bay, along with periodic thunderstorm chances,
there is a low chance for a prolonged period of intense above
average summer heat the next 7-10 days. A significant cool down is
possible by Wednesday-Thursday of next week, as deterministic
consensus progresses a strong cold front south into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period. Generally light
winds are expected this morning then will increase to around 10
kts by early afternoon out of the south-southeast. A small complex
of thunderstorms across western Kansas could shift into central
Kansas early this morning, but confidence remains low regarding
its placement and impacts.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...AMD