Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 292357
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
657 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME HAVE HAD HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER IN GENERAL...BUT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SOUTH OF A MESOSCALE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOWARDS MORNING...LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE ALTHOUGH A STRONG STORM AND HEAVY RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION STARTING
THURSDAY...THING TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUNTED AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
HIGHS STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND BACK INTO THE LOW 90S...BUT THINK PRECIPITATION WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN...BUT THE
MAIN BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STAY SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL IT WASHES OUT
FRIDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE CENTRAL CONUS SITS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. TEMPERATURES STAY
WARM...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...IN THE MID 90S.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DO NOT LOOK OVERLY GREAT. THERE MAY BE
A CHANCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST...BUT WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON TIMING AND CHANCES AT
THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON STORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. STORM
COVERAGE MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THU. CONFIDENCE IN ANY TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  85  67  89 /  50  50  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  86  64  91 /  40  40  10  20
NEWTON          67  84  66  89 /  40  40  10  10
ELDORADO        68  84  65  90 /  50  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  84  66  88 /  50  50  20  20
RUSSELL         64  89  65  91 /  20  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      66  87  66  90 /  30  20  10  20
SALINA          67  89  65  94 /  30  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       67  86  64  91 /  40  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  87  68  90 /  40  50  10  10
CHANUTE         69  86  65  91 /  40  40  10  10
IOLA            68  86  66  90 /  40  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  86  65  90 /  50  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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