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000
FXUS63 KICT 061154
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
554 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

ANTICIPATING PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. TWO DISTINCT
AREAS EXIST: ONE OVER CENTRAL KS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND
TEMPERATURES RADIATED OUT...BUT LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACK SIDE
OF RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO ADVECT NORTH
RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG. THE OTHER AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN CENTRAL
KS AND THE FLINT HILLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH LOW
CLOUDS...WHERE AREAS OF STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOG IS ANTICIPATED.
THIS IS ALREADY EVIDENT AT MANY ASOS SITES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...SET-UP APPEARS RIPE
FOR DENSE FOG GENERALLY WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS...SO WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUANCE. PER
RAP MODEL...FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF...WITH FOG
LINGERING UNTIL LUNCHTIME AND LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ONCE CLOUDS BURN OFF SHOULD SEE FULL SUN WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO FALL BY LATE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH...ALTHOUGH
READINGS OVER SOUTHERN KS SHOULD REACH NEAR 60F. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO FRI NIGHT--SAT STORM SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM HAS COME
INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN
KS LATE FRI NIGHT--SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY DUE
TO MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW
SLUSHY INCHES OF SNOW OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

PER MODEL CONSENSUS...MUCH WARMER WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR SUN-
MON AND MAYBE EVEN TUE...AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
WIDESPREAD 60S ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY. GFS AND ECMWF DROP ANOTHER
SYSTEM SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HEARTLAND MID-WEEK...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DOWN BY TUES NIGHT--WED..ALONG WITH
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

COMBO OF RADIATION...UPSLOPE AND STRATUS BUILD DOWN PROCESSES ALL
COMBINING TO PRODUCE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES THIS
MORNING. KRSL/KHUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST IMPACTED AS
RUC/HRRR SHOWS NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
PERSISTING THROUGH 1800 UTC. EDGES WILL BE ERODED GOOD INSOLATION
GIVEN ABSENCE OF HIGHER CLOUDS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION ON
WESTERN EDGE AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ADVECT DRIER AIR
LATER THIS MORNING. ONCE FOG BURNS ERODES...ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR
REMAINDER OF FORECAST. -HOWERTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY BIG FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...DUE TO HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LACK OF WINDY
DAYS. MAY SEE LOW-END ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY OVER CENTRAL
KS...AND FRIDAY SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS...AND AGAIN SUNDAY OVER CENTRAL KS DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER. BUT EVERYTHING SHOULD REMAIN
WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    50  33  58  30 /   0   0  10  50
HUTCHINSON      50  32  54  28 /   0   0  10  50
NEWTON          51  33  55  28 /   0   0  10  50
ELDORADO        50  34  58  30 /   0   0  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  34  60  32 /   0   0  10  40
RUSSELL         55  32  49  25 /   0   0  10  50
GREAT BEND      55  32  51  26 /   0   0  10  50
SALINA          52  33  50  26 /   0   0  10  50
MCPHERSON       51  32  53  27 /   0   0  10  50
COFFEYVILLE     49  31  60  35 /   0   0  10  40
CHANUTE         52  32  60  31 /   0   0  10  40
IOLA            52  33  59  31 /   0   0  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    51  31  60  33 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>051-067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$