Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 252012

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
312 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Main focus: Thunderstorm/Severe weather potential into the holiday

A weak mid-level shortwave over Colorado this afternoon, will
traverse east-northeastward across northwestern Kansas this evening,
reaching the corn belt by daybreak Friday. Initial Gulf moisture
return into Kansas will be meager ahead of this feature tonight, as
supported by latest observational trends. Therefore, a strong
elevated mixed layer is likely to keep the majority of the forecast
area dry tonight. Strong-severe storms moving off of the central
High Plains late this afternoon, may form into an MCS cluster or two
with east-northeastward propagation. It is possible that some of
this activity may reach as far east as the I-70 corridor in central
Kansas this evening/overnight (with a marginal wind/hail threat),
supported by a weak southerly low-level jet and cold pool
development. However, storm probabilities appear higher in northwest
Kansas and southwestern Nebraska.

A cold front will drop southward behind the departing weak
shortwave, reaching from central Missouri to central Oklahoma by
late Friday afternoon. The strong elevated mixed layer should
provide plenty of convective inhibition during Friday into Friday
evening. Severe storms are expected to initiate over over the
central High Plains Friday afternoon/evening, propagating eastward
as an MCS, along a similar path Friday night, across northern
Kansas/southern Nebraska. This could affect counties in north-
central Kansas, with strong-severe wind gusts and hail. A warm
front is progged to develop over southeast Kansas early Saturday
morning, moving into Missouri by Saturday afternoon. Another cold
frontal surge is expected Saturday afternoon in association with
the main upper trough sliding out across the Plains. Strong-
extreme instability and strong deep-layer shear is progged over
south-central and especially southeast Kansas ahead of the cold
front. There is some indication of a few quasi-elevated severe
storms developing near the warm front Saturday morning in
southeast Kansas, which would pose a threat of large to very large
hail. This is highly conditional on sufficient 850 convergence and
isentropic ascent getting parcels to their LFC, to break through a
stubborn cap. Barring even morning elevated storms, there is still
some possibility that sufficient convergence could materialize
along the cold front and any frontal/outflow intersections during
the afternoon in southeast Kansas, providing convective
initiation for a few organized severe storms. Although confidence
is lower than average regarding the details on convection
initiation and timing for Saturday, any storms that manage to
develop could have strong impacts in the southeast part of the
state. Slightly cooler and drier air will infiltrate the region
behind the front on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

An amplified upper level pattern to begin this extended period
relaxes some toward Wednesday/Thursday. A deep upper trough over the
Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley early in the week, should keep
the rich Gulf moisture down over the coastal states. The upper low
over the Great Lakes is progged to weaken and lift northeast by
Thursday. This should allow for southern return flow and increased
moisture from the Gulf up into Kansas by Thursday. Will maintain
slight chances of showers/storms Tuesday into Tuesday night, with
the medium range models hinting at a weak front dropping into the
region with a mid-level baroclinic zone also present. Perhaps better
chances of showers/storms by late in the week. Temperatures will be
near seasonal climatology during the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

VFR conditions forecast at all sites throughout the period with
some caveats. Mid level warm air advection has resulted in a band
of altocumulus and some virga which at 1700 UTC extends from near
KRSL-KICT. This will track east during the afternoon, but given
dry sub-cloud layer it will not be mentioned in the TAFs. Storms
originating over the high plains this afternoon are expected to
roll into KRSL/KGBD/KSLN after 0300 UTC. Not entirely clear how
strong these will be when they arrive. Amount of this convection
also goes to whether outflow/windshift will make it to
KHUT/KICT/KCNU. Finally, models also are trying to generate
extensive MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings tomorrow morning. This
is more likely north of boundary in the post storm upslope flow as
opposed to the warm sector. Models appear to be overly agressive
with low level moisture return.


Wichita-KICT    62  84  65  83 /   0  10  10  30
Hutchinson      61  82  62  80 /  10  10  10  30
Newton          61  82  63  80 /  10   0  10  30
ElDorado        62  84  64  82 /  10  10  10  30
Winfield-KWLD   64  86  65  85 /   0  10  10  20
Russell         58  80  59  75 /  40  10  30  30
Great Bend      58  80  60  76 /  30  10  20  30
Salina          60  82  62  80 /  20   0  20  30
McPherson       60  82  62  80 /  20   0  10  30
Coffeyville     64  87  66  86 /  10  10  20  40
Chanute         62  85  65  84 /  10  10  10  40
Iola            62  84  64  83 /  10  10  10  40
Parsons-KPPF    63  86  66  85 /  10  10  20  40




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