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000
FXUS63 KICT 191139
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
639 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Highlight:
Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for Saline County while a
Heat Advisory remains in effect for the rest of the region through
early Fri Evening.

No doubt intense heat remains the greatest subject for the rest of
the work-week as strong & massive upper-deck high pressure remains
sprawled across the central & southern thirds of the CONUS. The
inherited heat headlines remain intact. Thunderstorms will develop
over Northwest KS & the Nebraska Panhandle late Fri afternoon &
evening & may spread as far east as central Nebraska & far northern
KS Fri night. With the shortwave shearing as it moves east later
Fri night thunderstorm coverage should diminish.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 3 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

This Weekend:
The atmosphere should turn down the furnace as a much stronger mid
level trough surges SE from the Northern Plains on Sat while a 2nd
but more compact shortwave follows late Sat night & Sun. These two
characters (more so the 2nd) would push a weak cold front SE into
KS Sat night & Sun. The front would find sufficient moisture to
work with to produce scattered thunderstorms from Sat afternoon
thru Sunday night. The higher probabilities should occur across
central KS Sat afternoon & night then would shift slowly south Sun
& Sunday night as the front sinks into these areas.

Mon-Tue:
The strongest mid-level trof of this forecast will move east over
the central Rockies Mon night but with a very strong mid-upper
ridge anchored over the southeastern U.S. the wave should shear as
it ventures toward the northern plains. This would keep KS in a
moist S-SW lower-deck regime. As such, scattered/widely scattered
thunderstorms would be anticipated for these periods.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Main aviation concern will be storms this morning.

Storms developed several hours ago over northeast KS and have
slowly been building back to the west as sunrise approached. These
storms are the result of theta-e advection along a baroclinc zone
in the 850-800mb level. KSLN will be the site that is most
affected by this activity with these storms dissipating a couple
hours after sunrise. Outside of these storms, have high
confidence that VFR conditions will be in place through the next
24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    99  76 101  77 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson     100  76 101  77 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          99  77 100  76 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        97  76  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   97  76  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
Russell        101  75 103  77 /  20   0   0   0
Great Bend     100  75 102  76 /  10   0   0   0
Salina         105  78 104  79 /  30   0   0   0
McPherson      100  77 101  77 /  20   0   0   0
Coffeyville     95  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         96  74  97  76 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            96  74  97  75 /  10   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    95  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ032-033-047-048-
050>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...RBL