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000
FXUS63 KICT 160411
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1111 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY IS POTENTIAL WIND AND FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES FOR THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS RAMPED UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN BRISK THRU
THE NIGHT. COMBINATION OF GRADIENT AND MORE SO DEEPER LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC MIXING BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THRU THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE WINDS TO FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE HEADLINE WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...THOUGH
THE NIGHT SHIFT MAY DO SO FOR A PORTION OF WEDNESDAY. SURFACE DEW
POINTS MAY ALSO BE A BIT LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST
WITH IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW. OTHERWISE
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON MAX
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
TRAILING UPPER SHORTWAVE IN THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONUS TROF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT TO MODEST PRECIPITATION. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH WITH BEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER ON THURSDAY.
WHILE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT SUPPORT SNOW THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS IT APPEARS NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY A RAIN EVENT WITH NO SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH
A DRY AND MILDER DAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

ANOTHER UPPER TROF LOOKS TO VENTURE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FOR AT LEAST MODEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS...SO LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY RIDGING ALOFT AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER.

DARMOFAL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS ON WED ARE THE
AVIATION ISSUES FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE.

THE ONLY CHANGE FROM THE 00Z TAFS WAS TO INSERT SOME WIND SHEAR AT
ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRSL. THIS IS DUE TO VERY
STRONG(40-45KT) SOUTH WINDS RIGHT OFF OF THE SURFACE. THESE WINDS
WILL MIX DOWN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL KS IN THE
AFTERNOON...FLIPPING WINDS AROUND TO THE NW FOR KRSL AND
EVENTUALLY KSLN AND KHUT BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN THE VFR CONDITIONS STAYING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
MAINLY EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE...WITH LOWERING HUMIDITY
VALUES RESULTING IN POTENTIAL EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
IN THESE AREAS...FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON WIND SPEED FORECASTS IN THE 25 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT
LOWER ON THE SURFACE DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE TRENDED A BIT LOWER
WHICH WOULD GIVE EXTREME VALUES FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PLAN TO
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL GIVE
THE NIGHT SHIFT A CHANCE TO LOOK AT ADDITIONAL DATA AND
ASSESS THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING...IF CONFIDENCE ON
REACHING THE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASES.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    40  70  41  50 /   0  10  20  60
HUTCHINSON      39  70  38  49 /   0  10  30  60
NEWTON          40  69  38  48 /   0  10  20  60
ELDORADO        39  69  40  51 /   0  10  20  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  69  42  51 /   0  10  20  70
RUSSELL         40  68  34  50 /   0  10  30  40
GREAT BEND      40  69  35  49 /   0  10  30  50
SALINA          41  70  36  50 /   0  10  20  40
MCPHERSON       39  70  37  50 /   0  10  30  50
COFFEYVILLE     37  67  41  53 /   0  10  10  60
CHANUTE         37  67  40  51 /   0  10  10  60
IOLA            37  67  40  51 /   0  10  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    37  67  41  53 /   0  10  10  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

&&

$$