Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 131144
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
544 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 353 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Very challenging forecast, with a looming prolonged ice storm
filling the forecast time tonight. Will continue the ice storm
warning as is, although may postpone the start time until midday
Saturday for a few central Kansas counties.

Despite continued model uncertainty regarding surface
temperatures, consensus suggests widespread ice accumulations of
1/4 to 1/2 inch is likely across the region through Sunday night,
with locally higher amounts exceeding 1/2 inch over mainly central
Kansas due to potential for a longer period of sub-freezing
temperatures. Areas of downed tree limbs and powerlines are
likely, with associated power outages. The silver linings are 1)
winds remaining light (hopefully limiting downed limbs and
powerlines), and 2) temperatures warming above freezing most
areas Sunday, melting ice accumulation.

Did not stray too far from going forecast. Primary forecast
challenge is nailing down surface temperatures, as they will be
*K-E-Y* to an accurate freezing rain forecast. As it currently
stands, surface temperatures appear like they could be marginal for
mainly southern portions of the forecast area (i.e. temperatures
hovering around freezing) during the heaviest precipitation Saturday
PM through early Sunday. A nudge of just 1-2 degrees in either
direction could mean mostly rain with little ice accumulations, to
mostly freezing rain with potentially significant ice accumulations.

That said, first round of light freezing rain possibly mixed with
sleet (per NAM/GFS bufr soundings) is expected to affect far
southeast Kansas mainly this morning, with light ice/sleet
accumulations likely. Should be a relative lull tonight into
Saturday morning in between areas of large scale lift, with patchy
areas of light freezing rain/freezing drizzle over southeast
Kansas supporting additional light ice accumulations.

The main batch of large scale ascent and associated precipitation
is expected to arrive Saturday afternoon/evening and persist
through Sunday night, as a negatively tilted trough approaches
from the southwest, inducing strong isentropic ascent/moisture
transport across the region. Given the degree of lift and moisture
and even marginal instability, widespread pockets of moderate to
heavy precipitation are likely, along with embedded claps of
thunder. Where this precipitation falls into sub-freezing surface
temperatures, major ice accumulations are possible, mainly
along/north of Highways 54/400. In contrast, given the absence of
persistent near-surface cold advection, temperatures are expected
to slowly warm Saturday afternoon and night, possibly limiting ice
accumulations across southern portions of the forecast area.

Thankfully, confidence is high that temperatures will gradually
warm above freezing from the south Sunday and Sunday night,
changing everything over to rain and melting all ice accumulation,
with the possible exception of central KS counties north of I-70
where temperatures may remain closer to freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Overall synoptic pattern will support above normal temperatures
mid to late next week, with a chance of precipitation moving in by
late week and the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 544 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Complicated aviation forecast, with MVFR cigs over southern KS
expected to move north today, as gulf moisture overruns the shallow
cold air at the surface.  As this moist air moves north, expect
stratus and MVFR cigs initially at KCNU and KICT this morning, with
most of Central KS becoming MVFR during the afternoon and evening
hours. Saturation associated with the low level moisture will lead
to scattered freezing rain (FZRA) showers developing initially in SE
KS, as surface temps remain below freezing.  This will lead to a
prolonged period of freezing rain and possibly some sleet (PL) near
KCNU today thru this evening.  Will also introduce some freezing
rain (FZRA) for KICT for the evening hours.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    28  25  33  30 /  20  40  70  80
Hutchinson      27  24  31  27 /  20  30  60  80
Newton          26  23  32  27 /  20  40  60  80
ElDorado        26  24  33  29 /  30  40  60  80
Winfield-KWLD   29  26  34  31 /  50  60  70  80
Russell         26  22  32  25 /  10  10  40  60
Great Bend      27  23  31  26 /  10  20  50  70
Salina          27  23  31  26 /  10  20  40  70
McPherson       27  23  31  27 /  20  30  50  80
Coffeyville     32  30  35  33 /  70  70  70  80
Chanute         28  27  34  31 /  70  60  70  80
Iola            27  26  33  30 /  60  60  70  80
Parsons-KPPF    30  28  34  33 /  70  70  70  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Ice Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Sunday for KSZ096-098>100.

Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday for
KSZ051>053-067>069-082-083-091-092.

Ice Storm Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Monday for
KSZ032-033-047-048.

Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for
KSZ049-050.

Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for KSZ070>072-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...Ketcham



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