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000
FXUS63 KICT 271359
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
859 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 859 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

RADAR MOSAIC SUGGESTS A MESO VORT MAX HAS EVOLVED FROM THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE HRRR AND RUC
SUPPORT CONVECTION FESTERING LONGER INTO MIDDAY AND PERHAPS EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AS THIS FEATURES
MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
REFLECT LONGER DURATION...THOUGH ADDITIONAL TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE LESS HEAT AND
GRADUAL DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WAS BISECTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH
ISOLATED POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHAT LITTLE SUPPORT
THERE IS FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO MAY LINGER THROUGH 15-16Z BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE
AREA AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO THE AREA TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 80S MON-TUE. MAINTAINED LOW POPS ALONG
THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME
IS PROGGED WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS MAY DRIFT EASTWARD IMPACTING THE
AREA LATE TUE WHILE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT BRINGING A SUBTLE WAVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WED-WED NIGHT AND
MAINTAINED MID POPS WEIGHTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. DUE TO
LIMITED INSOLATION/PRECIPITATION...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT
OF THE 70S. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
DEPICTING A LARGE TROUGH MEANDERING/RETROGRADING ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA THU-SAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR AND CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ELEVATED POST FRONTAL CONVECTION CONTINUES JUST TO THE NORTH OF KAAO
NEAR KEWK AT THIS TIME...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SRN
KS.  EXPECT THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION TO PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE KICT METRO AREA.  SO
WILL INCLUDE A VCTS AND A TEMPO TSRA FOR THE KICT TAF FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A VCTS FOR THE KHUT TAF AS
WELL...AS THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY LINGERS NEAR THIS AREA AS WELL.
COULD SEE SOME VARIABLE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS FOR THE KICT TAF AS
THIS CONVECTION MOVES PAST.

EXPECT THE SRN KS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO OK
FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WORKING
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  SO WILL
ONLY KEEP THE TSRA GOING FOR THE MORNING.  AFTER THIS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN...WILL GO WITH VFR CIGS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF TIME
FRAME.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  65  87  65 /  30   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      91  64  86  64 /  30   0   0  10
NEWTON          92  64  85  64 /  30   0   0  10
ELDORADO        92  64  86  62 /  50   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  66  87  65 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELL         87  63  86  63 /  10   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      88  63  86  63 /  20   0   0  10
SALINA          90  62  87  62 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       91  64  86  64 /  10   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     96  64  88  62 /  20   0   0   0
CHANUTE         94  63  86  61 /  20   0   0   0
IOLA            93  62  85  60 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    95  64  87  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$