Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 210452
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1152 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SPINNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS...HELPING TO KEEP THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
COOLER AIR HAS SETTLED IN WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S
WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS UNDER GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPS AND SURFACE MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN BACK TO THE NORTH.
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A COUPLE OF WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE...THE FIRST DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND THEN A SECONDARY PORTION AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT DEVELOPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS WHICH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
THE LOWER RESOLUTION GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A WIDE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE/QPF THROUGHOUT ALL PERIODS FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THINK THE MORE PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES ARE
MORE LIKELY...BUT HAVE KEPT THE LESSER RESOLUTION IN THE FORECAST
SINCE IT IS STILL DAY 2 AND 3. HOWEVER AS MORE RESOLUTION IS
ALLOWED IN NEARER PERIODS...AND HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
ALLOWS...THIS CAN BECOME MORE APPARENT AS THE PERIODS NEAR. COULD
SEE ANOTHER HALF AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD FOR AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEARER THE STATE LINE. HOWEVER...WATCH THIS
PERIOD AS THE FORECAST CHANGES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE EXTENDED REMAINS MESSY AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SITS UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES
LIFT OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING A COUPLE OF MORE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MULTIPLE PERIODS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING OF THE WAVE
KEEP THE CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT
AS THE TIMING IS TUNED UP SOME IN LATER GUIDANCE IT SHOULD BECOME
MORE APPARENT WHICH OF THE DAYS WILL LIKELY SEE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES DO TREND WARMER WITH THE CONSTANT
WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD STUNT
THAT TO SOME EXTENT...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO MAKE WARMER
CONDITIONS FEEL MORE HUMID. CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION
IS RELATIVELY HIGH...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOWER.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CIGS HAVE STEADILY MIXED OUT WITHIN AS LOW AND MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN LOWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS WHERE SOME
TRANSIENT IFR IS MOST LIKELY. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER
14-16Z ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND EASTERLY BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    44  65  50  61 /  10  10  40  60
HUTCHINSON      43  65  46  62 /  10  10  40  60
NEWTON          42  64  47  60 /  10  10  30  50
ELDORADO        43  65  47  61 /  10   0  20  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  66  47  62 /  10  10  40  60
RUSSELL         40  64  47  61 /   0  10  50  60
GREAT BEND      41  64  47  61 /  10  10  50  60
SALINA          40  66  47  62 /  10  10  20  40
MCPHERSON       41  64  46  60 /  10  10  30  50
COFFEYVILLE     45  66  49  64 /  10  10  10  60
CHANUTE         44  65  48  63 /  10  10  10  40
IOLA            43  65  48  63 /  10  10  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    45  66  49  64 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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