Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 190455
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1055 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 228 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Unseasonably mild temperatures will dominate the region over the
short term.  The Southerly flow will continue to allow for some good
WAA through Monday.  This time around though, the Gulf of Mexico is
open for business.  This will allow for some strong moisture
transport to move into the area.  PW values are expected to climb
rapidly and likely reach the 1-1.3 inch range by Sunday night
which is well above normal for this time of year. While there will
be plenty of moisture available, appreciable forcing does not
want to enter the region until later Sunday night. As such, kept
POPs higher for Sunday night and Monday morning. Kept POPs in the
forecast for Sunday afternoon as the available moisture is just
too high to ignore. As stated before, most of the forcing will
arrive overnight Sunday. Upper level dynamics are also in place
during the overnight as well. These conditions, along with the
available moisture in the area will bring the possibility for
thunderstorms with some locally heavy rain. Flooding rain is not
expected at this time as the set up looks to keep any activity
that develops moving reducing residence time. The atmosphere will
dry out rapidly Monday afternoon and the mild weather will
continue.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Continued Southerly flow will keep the temperatures mild through
much of next week.  While confidence is high for this mid week
period, confidence drops significantly for the end of next week.
Current model runs indicate a significant change.  A major weather
will system will begin to encroach on the region Thursday night and
into Friday.  The Gulf of Mexico will again be open for much of the
week.  Moisture transport will come up from the South and will
provide this next system with plenty of moisture to work with.  The
upper level dynamics look good enough for some showers and isolated
thunderstorm Thursday night.  Once the front passes Thursday night,
temperatures are expected to drop back toward normal.  At this
point, temperatures look to be cold enough to allow for some light
snow but this is expected along the Northern tier of the CWA.
Confidence is low for this period as the models and the ensemble
plumes have not been consistent.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1053 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Still expecting low clouds and light fog to develop over the area
late tonight and Sunday morning, as low level moisture streams
northward into the region. The lower cigs will gradually rise
during the afternoon hours on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Another day of Southerly winds and mild temperatures. Luckily,
winds will remain rather light today and tomorrow which will keep
the GFDI low. Some ares of Central Kansas may reach high levels
for Sunday afternoon and the low chances or rain in Central Kansas
will keep the GFDI higher than the rest of the area. The only
other fire weather concern will be later next week as temperatures
will continue to be mild (well above normal) with Southerly
winds. With the lack of rain in Central Kansas, GFDI level may
reach high to very high mid next week as the wind is expected to
pick up Thursday afternoon before the next major weather system
arrives Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    49  66  55  72 /  10  30  60  10
Hutchinson      48  65  53  71 /  10  40  50  10
Newton          49  66  54  69 /  10  20  50  20
ElDorado        49  67  56  71 /  10  20  60  20
Winfield-KWLD   50  68  57  72 /   0  40  60  20
Russell         45  65  49  69 /  10  30  40  10
Great Bend      46  64  49  70 /  10  30  40  10
Salina          47  66  54  71 /  10  20  40  10
McPherson       48  65  52  70 /  10  30  50  10
Coffeyville     50  71  58  72 /   0  10  80  40
Chanute         49  70  58  72 /   0  10  70  40
Iola            48  69  57  71 /   0  10  70  40
Parsons-KPPF    49  71  59  72 /   0  10  80  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...ELM



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