Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 300551
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1151 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 329 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

A strong upper low over west-central Minnesota this afternoon, will
traverse slowly northeastward over the Upper Mississippi Valley
Wednesday, reaching the Upper Great Lakes and southeastern Canada by
Thursday. Several vort lobes will be rotating around this parent
upper low over the next couple of days, which will maintain a supply
of cooler, more seasonal air across the forecast area. A surge of
cold air advection will move through tonight into Wednesday, with
breezy west-northwesterly winds expected again Wednesday. Cannot
rule out a flurry or two tonight over the northern/northeastern part
of Kansas with 850-500 layer moistening (associated with a transient
mid-level trof passage), although an increase in cloud cover is
the more likely scenario.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

The 12z/29th ECMWF has come into much better agreement with the GFS
and GEFS in depicting significant shortwave troughing digging
through the southwestern states Friday, closing off over northern
Mexico this weekend. Meanwhile, a northern branch shortwave
trough will move eastward across the Northern/Central Plains later
Saturday into Saturday night, inducing an isentropic lift pattern
(290-300K layer) northeastward from the Southern Plains to
southeast Kansas and Missouri. This may result in areas of very
light precipitation across south-central and southeast Kansas,
with thermal profiles favoring very light rain or perhaps a very
light rain/snow mix at times. This activity would shift east of
the region with the upper wave on Sunday.

The GEFS and ECMWF were in decent agreement in progging a
significant upper level trough, emanating from the northeast
Pacific/southwestern Canada, digging southeastward and forming into
a longwave upper trough over the western CONUS Sunday night into
early next week. This will eject the upper low out of northern
Mexico- northeastward across the Southern Plains into the
lower/middle Mississippi Valleys. This may result in a chance of
light rain over eastern Kansas Monday. The GFS and ECMWF both depict
a deepening upper low evolving out of the western CONUS upper
trough, as it translates east-northeastward across the Plains toward
midweek. A much colder air intrusion is progged with this system
along with the potential for wintry precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

VFR is anticipated with transient ceilings in the 6000-8000 ft
range tonight while only cirrus are anticipated through the day on
Wednesday. Breezy northwest winds will increase by mid- morning
and continue through the afternoon before subsiding once again.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    29  50  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      27  49  24  50 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          29  49  25  49 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        29  49  26  50 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   29  50  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         26  47  21  48 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      26  48  21  48 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          29  48  23  48 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       28  49  23  48 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     29  50  28  53 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         28  48  27  50 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            28  47  28  49 /  10   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    28  49  27  51 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MWM



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