Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 170838
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
238 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

A VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST FROM THE WESTERN
STATES UP INTO WESTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING...AIDED BY REMNANT LIGHT SNOWCOVER. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TOWARD MIDDAY...THEN DIMINISHING
TOWARD THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

THE UPPER PATTERN IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFY DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN COMING
MORE OFF THE PACIFIC ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z/17TH
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A POLAR AIRMASS COMING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SHALLOW COLD
AIR IS PROGGED TO BACKDOOR SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF THE POLAR AIR WILL TARGET THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WE EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL OVER
THE WEEKEND. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROJECTED TO PASS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN AND PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. A STRONGER LOOKING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS THEN PROJECTED TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST TO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD DRAW
DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST KS AND AREAS TO THE
EAST/SOUTH SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24-HR PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 15Z PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE QUICKLY DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    27   9  38  26 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28   8  39  24 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          25   8  37  24 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        26   9  35  25 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   27  10  36  26 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         26   8  40  23 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      27   8  41  23 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          25   7  37  24 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       26   7  38  24 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     26   9  34  28 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         24   8  32  25 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            24   7  32  25 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    25   9  33  24 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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