Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 172356
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
656 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Mild and quiet weather anticipated Wed-Thu, as the main storm
track remains well north, and moisture remains rather scant across
the region. A weak cold front will attempt to progress through
the area Wednesday, but will stall and return back north in
response to shortwave energy approaching from the west. This will
support breezy south winds over eastern Kansas Wednesday, with
breezy south winds expanding to include all areas Thursday as lee
troughing strengthens. Deepening lee troughing in response to
amplified shortwave energy approaching from the west will support
very strong and gusty south winds Friday. Mixing values per
forecast soundings and pressure gradient progs suggest a wind
advisory will likely be needed, mainly northwest of the Kansas
Turnpike. Additionally, a few showers/storms are possible by
Friday night, as large scale ascent begins to overspread the
region ahead of the next shortwave and associated cold front,
amidst increasing instability and moisture transport. High
temperatures Wed-Fri will be in the 70s to near 80 degrees, about
10 degrees above seasonal normals.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Operational models and associated ensembles continue to support
increasing shower/thunderstorm chances Saturday and Saturday
night, mainly across eastern/southeast Kansas, as a strong cold
front progresses southeast across the region. Deep layer shear and
instability do not appear overly impressive, although given the
strong lift, a handful of strong to marginally severe storms are
possible Saturday afternoon-night. Given the linear forcing and
orientation of upper flow to the front, main threats would likely
be marginally severe hail, pockets of damaging winds and heavy
rain. Cooler and sunny weather is expected Sunday in wake of the
front, although highs should still be in the upper 60s to near 70.
Medium range model consensus supports a deepening eastern CONUS
trough by early next week, supporting a return to cooler, near
normal temperatures in the 60s by Monday or Tuesday. The expected
deep/dry northwest flow will likely support mostly sunny and dry
conditions much of next week, with warming/moderating temperatures
through the week as atmospheric thickness gradually increases.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

VFR will continue through the 24-hr forecast period with southerly
winds increasing to around 15 knots during the day. Some transient
wind shear may develop across south central KS around daybreak but
will be short-lived.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    49  78  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      48  78  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          49  76  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        49  76  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   49  78  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         47  81  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      46  80  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          49  78  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       48  77  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     47  77  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         47  76  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            47  75  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    46  76  50  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...MWM


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