Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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547
FXUS63 KICT 282341
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
641 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Two areas of concern, when it comes to convective potential for late
this afternoon through tonight.

First area is over the Flint Hills and Srn KS where pesky 200% of
normal precip water (PW) axis continues to lead to widely scattered
showers ahead of a weak impulse in the NW flow. Will keep some low
pops across Srn Ks for a widely scattered diurnally driven
strong/severe storm chance late this afternoon, in this weakly
capped and unstable environment.

Second area of concern, will be more substantial severe storm chance
for the evening hours. Already seeing a substantial complex of
storm across Sw Neb, at this time, ahead of the main shortwave
currently moving out of panhandle of Neb. Expect this convection
in SW Neb to move into NW and north Central KS to become more
vigorous as the afternoon progresses, as this shortwave drops SE
into NW KS and runs into some convergent upslope flow near KGLD,
where SBCAPE values of 2500-3000 J/KG will be located. Bulk shear
in this area actually improves to around 40-45 kts this
afternoon/this evening, which suggests as this convection grows
upscale, it will probably be severe. This convection will probably
congeal into some sort of complex of storms (MCS) early this
evening. The big question is once this complex develops to the NW,
how will it impact the forecast area. Current Hi-Res model
solutions differ on how this system will evolve, but most models
suggest a S-SE movement, but differ on how strong/severe it will
be as it moves south. Think areas west of I- 135 still have a
chance of some severe/damaging downburst winds this evening, and
even some quarter size hail if a storm can maintain some supercell
characteristics. But think the higher end severe threat will stay
west of the forecast area. Will continue to play up the severe
chance for western sections for this evening, but this threat may
be highly conditional on track of the MCS.

Plan on keeping likely pops for most of the wrn half of the forecast
area overnight as remnants of any sort of complex moves across the
area. Will also keep some solid chance pops into SE KS into Fri
morning, as remnant showers/storms may make more of an easterly turn
by Fri morning.

Fri: Some uncertainty on how Fri will play out, as far as pops
are concerned, as leftover cloud debris from the overnight
convection may remain across most of the southern half of the
forecast area until midday Fri. Also expect any outflow boundary
will push south into nrn OK. Will keep some low pops across SRN KS
in case clouds clear out and afternoon heating leads to an
afternoon storm chance. Anything that can develop in this moist
environment will be isolated in nature. Some relatively drier air
will shift into Central KS, so expect most of Central KS to have a
rather pleasant summer day with max temps in the lower 80s.

Models suggest that the OK outflow may try to venture back to the
north as a warm front for late Fri evening. Low level moisture
transport in the TX panhandle increases over the top of this boundary
and the mid level baroclinic zone expected to be situated from NW KS
to South Central KS.  So could see some nocturnal convection develop
across SW or S. Central KS late Fri evening or Fri night, possibly
impacting the srn half of the forecast area through Sat morning.

Sat: Main baroclinic zone and surface warm front will progress
across the forecast area on Sat, as warm advection gets under way
across the wrn half of the forecast area. So plan on keeping the
highest pops across the ern half of the forecast area, as the
elevated mixed layer increases the cap over Central KS. Expect the
greatest shower/storm coverage to be to the NE of the forecast area,
where the warm advection will be the strongest and the cap the
weakest.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

The warm advection really gets going for the end of the
weekend, with upper ridge in the Rockies building east into the
plains for the beginning of the work week.  This will lead to the
stifling heat returning to the plains. Expect max temps to climb
back into the upper 90s to around 100.  Will also see heat index
values climb to around 100-102 on Sunday and climb to 100-105 by
Mom/Tue, as surface dewpoints remain in the lower 70s across the ern
half of the forecast area. So by the end of the weekend, may have to
once again consider some heat headlines.  As the ridge builds across
the area most of the the convective chances will push well to the NW
and north of the area.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Thunderstorms will continue to develop south and east within the
instability axis across south central KS this evening. Very strong
winds of 60-70 mph will accompany the stronger storms. Transient
MVFR/IFR may also develop under the more intense activity. The
storm complex may begin to move out of the area by 06-08z with VFR
prevailing thereafter.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  85  70  88 /  70  40  40  30
Hutchinson      69  84  69  88 /  70  30  40  20
Newton          69  83  68  87 /  70  40  40  30
ElDorado        70  84  70  87 /  70  40  40  30
Winfield-KWLD   72  86  71  89 /  60  40  40  30
Russell         66  83  66  87 /  70  30  30  20
Great Bend      67  84  67  88 /  70  30  30  20
Salina          69  85  68  88 /  80  30  30  20
McPherson       68  84  68  87 /  70  30  30  20
Coffeyville     72  87  71  88 /  40  40  40  30
Chanute         71  84  70  87 /  40  40  40  30
Iola            70  84  70  86 /  40  40  30  30
Parsons-KPPF    71  85  71  88 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...MWM



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