National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KICT 172342
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
642 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Main challenge is chances for elevated convection tonight/Friday
morning and then potential for severe surface based storms late
Friday afternoon/evening. Moisture transport within the 850-700mb
layer will result in modest elevated instability overnight across
central Kansas. Proximity to the right entrance region of a 300mb
jet maximum and modest low level jet should aid lift to promote
widely scattered storms. Some of this activity could linger into
late Friday morning before waning. Attention will then turn to the
southward moving cold front associated with the upper trof diving
across the Upper Midwest late Friday afternoon/evening. Diurnal
heating with return of upper 60s/near 70F dewpoints will result in
a very unstable airmass at peak heating along and east of the
turnpike. Deep layer shear in the northwest upper flow regime
looks to peak during the early evening as well, which will support
strong to severe storms. While the weekend looks generally very
warm and dry, low level moisture looks to return across eastern
Kansas in the developing southerly flow. Some elevated convection
is possible over north central Kansas Saturday night. Cannot rule
out a few diurnal surface based storms later in the weekend,
though lack of focus should limit to an isolated nature.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Monday, otherwise known as the day of the total eclipse, looks to
remain very warm and mainly dry. Some late day convection is
possible coming off the high Plains into central Kansas. A more
amplified upper trough still looks to develop across the Great
Lakes by Tuesday and Wednesday, which should allow a cold front
to settle south across Kansas. So will continue to carry modest
chance PoPs with the frontal passage and slight cooling in its
wake.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Main concern is potential for elevated convection later tonight and
tomorrow morning. Appears that the best chances will be in Central
KS late tonight and early Friday morning with moisture return.
Confidence in timing/location is not particularly high. VFR
conditions are generally expected, with the exception of
thunderstorms. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    67  92  68  93 /  30  30  40   0
Hutchinson      66  93  66  94 /  30  30  20   0
Newton          66  91  66  92 /  30  30  30   0
ElDorado        66  90  67  92 /  20  30  40   0
Winfield-KWLD   67  91  68  93 /  20  30  40   0
Russell         65  93  63  95 /  30  20   0   0
Great Bend      66  94  64  95 /  40  20  10   0
Salina          67  94  64  95 /  30  30  10   0
McPherson       65  93  64  94 /  30  30  20   0
Coffeyville     64  90  69  92 /  10  20  50  10
Chanute         64  89  67  90 /  10  20  40   0
Iola            64  88  66  89 /  10  30  40   0
Parsons-KPPF    65  90  68  91 /  10  20  50   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...PJH