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000
FXUS63 KICT 091119
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
619 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST SUN MAR 9 2014

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT IMPACTED THE STATE TODAY HAS MOVED OFF TO
THE EAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH
TONIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST SUN MAR 9 2014

TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE VERY WARM...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY AND NEAR 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT TODAY HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES
WHILE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS PRESENT ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE 60S TODAY AND 70S TOMORROW.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...BUT THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES. 1. TIMING...THE NAM IS
THE QUICKEST WITH THE FRONT. 2. AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH
REGARDING AMOUNT OF QPF...BUT THE GFS HAS ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC CHANCES AND NOW THE NAM IS RELATIVELY
DRY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR DRIZZLE AND MAYBE SOME
SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG BEHIND THE
FRONT. THINK A WIND ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY WILL BE NEEDED FOR POST
FRONTAL WINDS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST SUN MAR 9 2014

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY QUIET. THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SITS IN NORTHWEST FLOW UNDER WEAK RIDGING. A PIECE OF ENERGY CUT
OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...BUT THIS WILL ONLY CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT MAIN DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FOR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...AND JUST AT THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BRIEFLY DROP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEFORE
QUICKLY REBOUNDING TO THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
WITH HESITATION...MAYBE SPRING IS TRYING TO PEEK ITS HEAD AROUND
THE CORNER.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KS THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE KRSL AND
KSLN TAF SITES.

KETCHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST SUN MAR 9 2014

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TODAY AND DEW POINTS WILL DROP
CAUSING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO BE IN THE 30S WITH DRY FUELS. WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH HELP
TO CAUSE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER TO BE VERY HIGH.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  35  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      64  36  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          60  36  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        60  36  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  36  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         67  37  77  39 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      65  36  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          65  37  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       63  36  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     59  36  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         59  36  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            58  36  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    59  35  73  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$