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461
FXUS63 KICT 241055
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
555 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

A very pleasant weather day will be in store for Kansas today with
light winds and below normal temperatures, as surface high pressure
camps out over the area. The below normal temperatures for late
June will continue for Sunday and Monday with daytime highs in
the 80s. Meanwhile a series of embedded short waves with-in the
upper level northwest flow regime currently over Alberta will
race southeast across the central plains. The first short wave
that induces some mid-level warm advection looks to develop
showers/storms over southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas for Sunday
afternoon. Some of this activity will spread into central Kansas
mainly for Sunday night and continue into Monday. Strong/severe
thunderstorm potential for this period looks to be rather low
with limited instability and unfavorable mid-level lapse rates.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Warmer temperatures and increasing south winds will develop over
Kansas for Tuesday into Wednesday, as upper level winds change from
a northwest flow to more zonal west to east pattern. Night time
MCS`s look more favorable across Nebraska however some of this
activity could drop southward along the elevated mixed layer into
Kansas. Long range models show a fairly pronounced upper trough
sliding across the Rockies and out into the central plains for
later in the week. This would push a cold front southward into
Kansas and increase thunderstorm chances. Risk for strong/severe
storms will become higher this period given better instability and
stronger winds aloft spreading across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period.
Winds will remain light with a surface ridge across the area. An
increase in altocu is expected late today into tonight.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    83  59  83  62 /   0   0  10  10
Hutchinson      82  58  82  60 /  10  10  10  30
Newton          81  58  81  60 /   0  10  10  20
ElDorado        81  58  81  60 /   0   0  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   83  59  84  62 /  10   0  10  10
Russell         81  56  80  58 /  10  10  20  40
Great Bend      81  57  81  59 /  10  10  20  30
Salina          82  58  82  60 /  10  10  20  40
McPherson       82  57  82  59 /  10  10  20  30
Coffeyville     82  58  84  60 /  10   0  10  20
Chanute         81  58  82  59 /   0   0  10  30
Iola            81  57  81  58 /   0   0  10  30
Parsons-KPPF    82  58  83  60 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...KED