Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 312311
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS THE FOG
THAT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE GRADIENT WIND HAS NOT REALLY INCREASED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WITH ABOUT 5 KNOTS OF WIND SHOWN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DECOUPLING TO TAKE PLACE THERE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SURFACE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT.

THE MINIMUM DEWPOINT FOR THE CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE IS ABOUT 70 DEGREES
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP.

THE NAM/RAP RUNS TODAY HAVE AGREED WITH THIS THOUGHT WITH BUFKIT
SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING.  THE ONLY FACTOR THAT IS LOWERING CONFIDENCE
IS THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND THAT IS EXPECTED. IF WINDS
ARE TOO STRONG IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IT WOULD FORM MORE OF A
STRATUS LAYER RATHER THAN FOG.

AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST SOME PATCHY FOG AND WAIT UNTIL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES BEFORE ADDING MORE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS TWO THINGS...INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. VERY CONFIDENT IN
TEMPERATURES BEING 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR STARTING WEDNESDAY.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AT WHICH TIME...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC EJECTS OUT OF THE
WEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES /THROUGH STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL/ AND BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION
THIS COMING WEEKEND.  SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS DO NOT FAVOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST VALID PERIOD. A DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. THE PREVALENT FOG WHICH IN SOME CASES HAS BEEN
DENSE FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THE PAST FEW COUPLE DAYS
IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY AND LESS OF A RESTRICTION TO THE
VISIBILITY. WHILE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WILL
OMIT FROM THE TERMINALS FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  93  71  94 /  10   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      70  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
NEWTON          69  92  70  93 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        69  91  69  92 /  10   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  94 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         67  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      68  95  71  96 /  10   0  20  10
SALINA          68  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       69  94  71  95 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  91  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  90  69  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



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