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000
FXUS63 KICT 140440
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST WITH THE MAIN
CHANGE GOING WITH ALL SNOW OVER CENTRAL KS TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A POTENT WAVE CHURNING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS FEATURE KICKS OUT LATE TONIGHT...A VERY
TIGHT MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF SNOW GENERALLY AFTER 09Z. GIVEN HOW
TIGHT THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE IS...WOULD EXPECT THE HIGHER SNOW
AMOUNTS TO OCCUR IN A VERY NARROW BAND. AT THIS TIME FEEL
LOCATIONS EITHER SIDE OF A PRATT TO HUTCH TO MARION LINE WOULD
HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE 1-2" WOULD BE THE HIGHER END OF THIS EVENT
WITH MOST OF THIS ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES. STRONG SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO BLAST ACROSS THE AREA ABRUPTLY ENDING SPRING/EARLY SUMMER
WEATHER WITH ONE LAST TASTE OF WINTER. SOLID ADVISORY WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...AS SEVERE THREAT WANES
IN SOUTHEAST KS. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS
EVENING WEST OF I-35...BUT CHANCES WILL PICK UP DURING THE NIGHT
AS ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES THROUGH...AIDED BY INCREASINGLY COLD
AIR ALOFT/UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. ANTICIPATE GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVER GOOD CHUNK OF AREA...BUT COMBO OF LIGHT RATES AND WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO GRASSY AREAS.
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING AT OR BELOW FREEZING HAVE UPGRADED
WATCH TO FREEZE WARNING...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TUE-WED:

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING...BUT SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. WITH SKIES
CLEARING...APPEARS TO BE VERY GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING TUE NIGHT. GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WELL BELOW FREEZING...
HAVE UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING TOMORROW NIGHT AS WELL. RETURN
FLOW RAPIDLY RETURNS ON WED...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING ACROSS
THE WEST...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF
FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. STILL SEEING SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF COLD FRONT BETWEEN GFS/ECWMF ON THU-FRI..BUT BOTH PORTEND
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES SOMETIME IN
THU-FRI TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOWER CIGS AND SNOW CHANCES THROUGH
LATE MON MORNING.

VORT MAX IS NOW MOVING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BAND OF SNOW INTENSIFYING OVER WEST-
CENTRAL KS. THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST. BASED ON CURRENT OBS WE SHOULD GET
SOME DECENT SNOW RATES AS VISIBILITIES FALL TO BELOW 2SM IN THE
HEAVIER BAND. STILL FEEL THAT THE PREFERRED AREA FOR SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE FROM THE PRATT TO HUTCH TO MARION LINE AND
JUST NORTHWEST OF THAT LINE. WARMER GROUNDS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK
OF THE SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KS WITH SOME IFR LEVELS POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW. KRSL AND
KSLN SHOULD ONLY SEE A FEW MORE HOURS OF MVFR BEFORE LIFTING. BY
14-15Z THE SNOW SHOULD BE QUICKLY PUSHING EAST INTO SOUTHEAST KS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KCNU.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WITH GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE OFFSET BY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. NEXT SERIOUS THREAT WILL BE WITH RETURN
FLOW THAT DEVELOP ON TUE/WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  46  26  60 /  40  40   0   0
HUTCHINSON      30  45  25  60 /  60  30   0   0
NEWTON          30  44  26  59 /  50  30   0   0
ELDORADO        31  45  26  58 /  40  50   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  47  25  60 /  40  50   0   0
RUSSELL         30  47  23  64 /  40  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      30  46  23  63 /  50  10   0   0
SALINA          32  46  24  62 /  30  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       30  45  24  61 /  60  20   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     35  46  26  58 /  30  30   0   0
CHANUTE         33  44  24  57 /  40  50   0   0
IOLA            32  43  24  56 /  40  50   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    34  45  25  57 /  30  40   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>071-082-083-091>094.

&&

$$