Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 132020
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
220 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 217 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Northwest mid/upper flow prevails across the central CONUS again
today with pesky low and mid lvl clouds lingering across much of the
area. A shortwave trough over the Northern High Plains is progged to
move south and east impacting the Central Plains region late tonight
and early on Sunday.  A period of light snow and snow flurries are
anticipated with some light accumulations expected to graze the
northeast and eastern portion of our forecast area where a light
dusting of snow will possible through Sun morning before
diminishing. The lowest 3000 feet of the column remain fairly dry,
so some of the precipitation may not make it to the ground at least
early at the onset.

Temperatures should rise nicely on Sunday within a low-level
westerly flow regime in the wake of the subtle shortwave trough. The
warm up will be short-lived as another surge of arctic air arrives
Sunday night. This will bring another round of light snow late
Sunday night into Monday as a transient area of mid-level
frontogenesis moves across the area. Light precipitation may start
as a wintry mix before transitioning to all snow. The most
favorable snow-growth region should remain across central KS from
Lincoln county including the Salina area possibly brushing
portions of southeast KS from Yates Center to Iola where an inch
or more may be possible before diminishing during the morning
hours on Monday. Further south and west, the snow production
becomes less favorable with mainly flurries expected.

Mon-Tue...strong low level cold air advection will keep highs in the
20s on Monday with subzero minimum temperatures Monday night into
early Tuesday morning for much of the area. 7-10 knot winds will
drive wind chill values into the 15 below range for locations along
and north of highway 54 and a wind chill advisory may be needed
Monday night into Tuesday morning for much of the area. Highs on Tue
will struggle to climb out of the teens across the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Arctic high pressure will move into the Middle Mississippi
Valley area on Wednesday allowing southerly flow to return to the
Central Plains states. This will allow temperatures to begin to
moderate. Rising heights and increasing thickness will continue to
support a warming trend as we move through the week with highs in
the 50s by Fri/Sat.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Cloud ceilings have lifted a little more than previous thinking
and returned to the VFR category across central KS at the
beginning of the 18Z TAF period. CIGS should remain in the VFR
category through the rest of the TAF period at all
locations. However, they will generally be less than 10,000 feet
(especially through the rest of today and tomorrow morning) so
will continue to monitor closely. Some brief snow flurries or
light snow showers are possible tonight and into the early morning
hours of Sunday at northern and eastern locations (RSL, GBD, SLN,
and possibly CNU), but should not have significant impacts on
visibility or CIGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    18  44  25  26 /  20  10  10  20
Hutchinson      16  43  22  23 /  20  10  20  30
Newton          17  40  21  23 /  30  10  30  40
ElDorado        18  41  24  25 /  30  20  20  40
Winfield-KWLD   20  44  25  28 /  20  10   0  10
Russell         16  46  19  20 /  30   0  40  20
Great Bend      17  47  21  22 /  20   0  30  20
Salina          15  42  20  21 /  60  10  60  40
McPherson       15  42  20  22 /  40  10  40  40
Coffeyville     20  42  26  29 /  30  30  10  20
Chanute         18  40  24  25 /  50  60  30  50
Iola            18  38  23  24 /  50  60  40  60
Parsons-KPPF    19  41  24  28 /  40  40  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...TAV



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