Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 161030
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
430 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 355 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Forecast Highlight:
Red Flag Warning is being issued for all of Southeast Kansas from
11 AM until 6 PM CST today.

Today:
No doubt the greatest concern is the potential for an extreme
grassland fire danger across Southeast KS this afternoon. Details
are provided in the ".Fire Weather..." section toward the end of
the discussion.

The Great Plains will be under a split upper-deck pattern. A high
amplitude ridge will drift east across the Northern Plains while
a weak cyclone transitions into a deep trof as it too drifts east
across the Rio Grande. As the weakening southern stream upper-deck
cyclone crosses Northern Mexico a surface trof will strengthen
from Eastern CO to Eastern NM. This would induce SW winds to
increase across the KS Neighborhood that`ll inject much warmer and
drier air into the area. The warm dry advection will be sufficient
to push highs into the 70-75F range. High temperature records are
in reach across Central & South-Central KS.

Tonight:
With the broad surface trough extending from ND to the NM/TX border
the moderate SW winds will produce a relatively balmy night across
KICT Country. However, warmest low temperature records should not
be set.

Fri-Sat Night:
As the deep southern stream upper-deck trof continues to move east
it may restrengthen as it encounters an amplified downstream ridge
extending from FL to the Mid-MS Valley Fri & Fri Night. This would
keep the Great Plains in a split upper-deck regime as the Northern
Plains upper ridge remains amplified to Hudson Bay. The attendant
surface trof will drift east to keep a southerly, albeit weak,
flow in place. This would produce more very warm weather across KS
on Fri with highs around 70. The surface trof may experience weak
cyclogenesis as it continues to drift east across TX Fri Night.
This would drag a weak cold front SE into Central KS Sat Morning.
Sat won`t be quite as warm but highs will still be 15-20F above
normal. The weak front will dissipate around noon as the departing
upper-deck trof teams with an upstream ridge amplifying over the
Great Plains to produce continued sunny weather.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

With models continuing to show decent run-to-run consistency
there are few changes to the forecast for these periods. The next
chance for rain & perhaps a few thunderstorms is still scheduled
to arrive Sunday Night. With the Central CONUS upper ridge
undergoing further amplification in response to a DEEP upstream
wave digging over Baja CA a surface trof will develop & strengthen
quickly over the Western Plains. This would inject increasing
moisture north into the KS region Sunday Night. The ultra-high
amplitude pattern will afford the airmass ample time to moisten
further. Upper-deck diffluence is lacking. As such the
thunderstorms should behave and would likely be embedded. Showers
& thunderstorms should persist for most areas until Mon Night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Aviation concerns will remain very low through the next 24 hours.

Upper low approaching western Mex is expected to slowly lift
northeast through the next 24 hours and by 06z Fri, should be
located over west-central TX. With this system remaining to the
south, look for clear skies to remain through this taf period. Lee
troughing will gradually increase which will allow for some gusts
in the 20-30mph range Thu afternoon for areas along and especially
east of the KS Turnpike.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

SW winds increasing to 15-25 mph sustained with gusts around 30
mph will inject much warmer air into KS this afternoon. This would
enable the grassland fire danger to approach the "Extreme"
category in Southeast KS with the greatest risk occurring in
Allen, Neosho & Labette Counties. As such, the Red Flags have been
hoisted for all of Southeast KS from 11 AM until 6 PM CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Highs For February 15th:

Chanute: 72 In 1947
Wichita: 72 In 1947
Russell: 71 In 2000
Salina:  75 In 1921

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  39  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      72  38  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          70  39  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        70  40  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   71  40  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         75  36  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      74  36  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          73  38  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       72  38  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     70  40  71  46 /   0   0   0  10
Chanute         70  40  70  45 /   0   0   0  10
Iola            70  40  70  45 /   0   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    70  40  70  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
evening for KSZ053-070>072-094>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...EPS
CLIMATE...EPS

*Corrected starting time of Red Flag Warning.*



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