


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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424 FXUS63 KICT 270354 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1054 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm chances continue this evening, with strong storms and heavy rain possible. - Hit-or-miss storm chances for Friday and Saturday, especially across eastern KS. - Storm chances ramp back up for Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday night as a front moves into the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 A low pressure system currently located over central Nebraska is dragging a weak boundary southward across central Kansas. This boundary will be the focal point of our convection this afternoon and evening as it moves eastward throughout the day and into the evening hours. While shear will remain weak across the forecast area, the instability will reach between 2500-3000 J/kg in places. This, combined with the forcing from the boundary, should be enough to produce a few thunderstorms across eastern Kansas. The thermodynamic profile supports a few strong wind gusts, however the lack of shear should limit the hail threat. The slower moving nature of these storms, along with 2 inch PWATs, would also support locally heavy rain leading to some localized flooding concerns. Then for Friday into this weekend, moisture and instability will remain in place across the eastern half of Kansas though we will lack in any real forcing across the area. Some weak mid-level impulses will move across the region allowing minor convection to develop in the weakly capped environment. Widespread severe weather and significant rainfall is not anticipated with this activity. Then on Sunday night into Monday, a shortwave will move into the northern portion of the U.S. sending an associated weak frontal boundary across the Central Plains. This will lead to slightly better rain chances on Sunday night into Monday morning. Beyond Monday, high pressure will build in behind the front leading to generally lower rain chances. For the middle part of the week, we could see isolated rain/storm chances as low level moisture remains abundant and we`ll maintain some marginal instability. In the wake of the frontal boundary, we will also see temperatures dip a few degrees below normal for this time of year with afternoon highs reaching into the middle to upper 80s and overnight lows falling into the middle to upper 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 A moist airmass ahead of a weak mid-level trough approaching from the west may support spotty hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms overnight into Friday morning, mainly over southeast KS (impacting mainly the CNU TAF site). Covered this threat with a PROB30. Otherwise, can`t rule out patchy low clouds and/or low visibilities late tonight into early Friday for mainly ICT and CNU, but confidence was too low for insertion in the 06z TAFs. For Friday afternoon-evening, a few hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms are possible across the region, but predictability is too low at this point for a mention in the 06z TAFs. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AMD AVIATION...ADK