Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 180002
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
602 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OVER OKLAHOMA AND MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SNOW AND SLEET
HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS SINCE ABOUT 2PM.
TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL KEEP SNOW A
BIGGER THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE BIGGEST THREAT/CONCERN REMAINS THE WINTRY WEATHER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY
COOLER...MAKING SNOW ACCUMULATION A BIGGER CONCERN ACROSS THE
AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...PRECIPITATION INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED THROUGH THE
BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AS OF
3PM. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES BARELY REACHING FREEZING...SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY
PRECIP TYPE OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
MAIN AREA FOR A WINTRY MIX WILL BE THE BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES. EXPECT THE WINTRY MIX TO CEASE BY EVENING BECOMING ALL
SNOW. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FEEL CLOUD ICE WILL BE LOST AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN. BY MORNING MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FORECAST SNOW TOTALS ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. SOME ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE UP TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW. FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MORNING.

REGARDLESS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPE...ROADWAYS COULD BECOME
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

TEMPS REMAIN COOL...BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH SKIES BEGINNING
TO CLEAR BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TOMORROW...AND IN
THE 40S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA...THE NEXT ONE TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN LIQUID.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY MONDAY AND COOLING
SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN IFR/LIFR ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PERIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
REDEVELOPING TOWARD MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS SPREADING
NORTH AND EAST AS THE MID-LEVELS DRY WHEN THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOME
FZDZ MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 19-21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  38  31  40 /  80  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      28  35  28  39 /  80  30  10  10
NEWTON          28  36  29  38 /  80  40  10  10
ELDORADO        30  38  31  39 /  90  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  39  32  40 /  70  30  10  10
RUSSELL         25  34  25  39 /  80  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      27  34  26  40 /  80  30  10  10
SALINA          28  35  28  38 /  80  40  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  35  28  38 /  80  40  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  34  41 /  80  30  20  10
CHANUTE         31  39  32  38 /  90  40  10  10
IOLA            31  38  31  38 /  80  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  33  40 /  80  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$


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