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000
FXUS63 KICT 241201
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
701 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

GOOD SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA..AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 315K SURFACE INCREASES
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN SHOULD FLATTEN
OUT FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEAT TO BUILD ACROSS
KANSAS ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES LOOK TO PUSH ABOVE 100 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. IF DEWPOINTS CAN
BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON HEAT HEADLINES
COULD BE HOISTED BY LATER FORECAST UPDATES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR THE AREA LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL PERHAPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN A SURFACE FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT
EVEN THOSE CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING ALL THAT SPECTACULAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS PERIOD...AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DECENT MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNAL ALONG
700MB GRADIENT SUPPORTS GOING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFFECTING MAINLY
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. IF THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION LINGER THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
WINDS VEERING AND INCREASING. ONLY MODEST DECREASE IN WINDS AT
SUNSET IS ANTICIPATED. ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT AT KRSL/KSLN FROM
STORMS DEVELOPING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
TIME. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    93  74 100  76 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      95  74 102  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  73 100  75 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        91  73 100  76 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  74 101  77 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         97  74 102  73 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      97  74 102  73 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          97  75 105  76 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       95  74 102  75 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     89  71  98  77 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  72  97  76 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            88  71  96  76 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  71  97  77 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$