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000
FXUS63 KICT 121114
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
614 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT LED TO THE STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY.  ALREADY SEEING
WINDS BEGINNING TO SLACKEN OVER THE LAST REMAINING WINDY LOCATION IN
SE KS...SO WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY GO AT ZONE ISSUANCE TIME.

EXPECTING TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMATE NORMALS TODAY AS COOLER AIR AND
COLD ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TEMPERED SOME GIVEN THE NORTHERLY WINDS...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL  BE
CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS IN THE LOW 50S.

THU-FRI: WARM ADVECTION QUICKLY RETURNS TO THE PLAINS FOR
THU...WITH DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS LEADING TO TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON THU.

NOT ALOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW FRI WILL PLAY OUT...AS GFS AND NAM/WRF
SHOW A VERY WEAK REMNANT PIECE OF THE SYSTEM THAT CAME THROUGH THIS
MORNING...EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. GENERAL TREND
HAS BEEN TO TAKE THIS WEAK SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH EACH
RUN...SO THINK THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL STAY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS BUOYED BY THE
ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT EVEN SHOW THIS WEAK SYSTEM AT ALL. SO WILL TRIM
POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH OK. LEAVING ONLY A VERY SMALL
POP IN EXTREME SE KS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

MID-UPPER FLOW SHIFTS MORE TO A NW FLOW REGIME FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. AS THIS RIDGE
BUILDS...A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE KEEPING
MOST OF THIS IMPULSE WELL WEST OF THE AREA...AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PUTS THE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN POPS IN
DOUBT...AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE STAYS
TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.   COULD SEE THE EASTERN EXTENT OF
THE POPS AS FAR EAST AS INTERSTATE 135. SO CONFIDENCE IN POPS LATE
SAT INTO SUN IS LOW...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. EITHER SOLUTION
SUGGESTS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUN...WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS CLIMO NORMALS FOR
SUNDAY AFTER ANOTHER WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY ON SAT.

COOL DOWN FOR SUN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS NW FLOW RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO RETURN SW-S FLOW FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS FOR MON/TUE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT ITS ENTIRETY. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN BEHIND THE EXITING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS SHIFTED EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 25 KTS. THE WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE WESTERLY AND DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

VJP

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL CLIMB INTO THE VERY HIGH
CATEGORY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS
WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 15 TO 20 MPH.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  31  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      55  30  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          53  31  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        54  32  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  31  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         54  28  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      54  27  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          55  30  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       54  30  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     55  31  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         53  32  69  42 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            52  32  68  42 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    54  30  71  41 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$