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000
FXUS63 KICT 071154
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
554 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

THERE IS WEAK RIDGING CURRENTLY OVERHEAD BETWEEN A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT WAVES ACROSS THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGHING IS
DEEPENING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
PREVALENT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS WHICH COULD CREATE SOME PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING. A FRONT DRAPES FROM THE SURFACE LOW NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

THE NEAR TERM IS PROBABLY THE TRICKIEST OF THE FORECAST WITH A
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW BACK TO THE FORECAST.
THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES CENTRAL
KANSAS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TRACK WILL DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND TRACK EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER WAVE IMPACTING
MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS WHAT MAKES THIS SYSTEM SO TRICKY. THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COOLS...BUT THE AVAILABILITY FOR ICE IS
LACKING. THINK THE CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM
GETS STARTED...THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN/SNOW AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
NEARS. THE NAM IS A LOT MORE BULLISH IN SNOW TOTALS THAN THE GFS
AND ECMWF. LIKE THE GFS/ECMWF BEST AT THIS TIME...WITH THE
QUESTION FOR CLOUD ICE. THE LACK OF ICE WILL KEEP SNOW TOTALS
DOWN. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL REALLY HOVER IN THE 30S
WHICH WILL MEAN THAT ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL NOT STICK AROUND
VERY LONG. STILL THINK HIGHS IN THE 40S...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
KANSAS WHERE CLEARING WILL BE EARLIER IN THE DAY. CURRENTLY
FORECASTING UP TO AN INCH IN EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD TRAVEL ISSUES OR THE SNOW TO STICK AROUND
VERY LONG.

BY SUNDAY THINGS TURN AROUND QUICKLY. A QUICK SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA MOST OF SUNDAY. WITH MAXIMUM INSOLATION AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE
AREA.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND POSSIBLY 70S ACROSS THE STATE. HOWEVER...THE SPRING LIKE
DAY IS CONFINED TO MONDAY AS ANOTHER POTENT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR MID-WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DESCREPANCES WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL...AS IT KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS STATE LINES. THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN ENERGY OFF TO
THE WEST INSTEAD OF PROGRESSING EASTWARD. REGARDLESS THEY DO SHOW
ANOTHER POTENT FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY THAT WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WITH SOME POSSIBLE
SNOW OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON THIS PERIOD IS LOW.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT HIGH...GIVEN THE CONTINUED SNOW
MELT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
LEAD TO SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS FROM FOG FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS...AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS KEEP THINGS MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FOG FROM GOING DENSE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL KS WILL LEAD TO A POST
FRONTAL MVFR CLOUD DECK DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY
THE EVENING HOURS. THE MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WRN OK...WITH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS SW KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. EXPECT THIS CHANCE OF SNOW TO
DROP VSBYS INTO THE MVFR RANGE AFTER 12Z/SAT...WHICH IS AFTER THE
TIME FRAME OF THIS TAF SET.

KETCHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. DESPITE
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER DOWN.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  28  40  24 /  10  60  70  10
HUTCHINSON      55  26  42  25 /  10  50  60  10
NEWTON          56  26  41  24 /  10  50  70  10
ELDORADO        57  29  39  23 /  10  50  70  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  32  39  23 /  10  60  80  10
RUSSELL         48  26  47  28 /  10  40  40   0
GREAT BEND      51  26  46  27 /  10  60  60   0
SALINA          51  27  45  26 /  10  40  40   0
MCPHERSON       54  26  42  25 /  10  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     61  35  39  23 /  10  40  80  30
CHANUTE         59  32  39  21 /  10  40  80  20
IOLA            60  32  39  22 /  10  40  80  20
PARSONS-KPPF    60  33  39  22 /  10  40  80  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$