Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 270747
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
247 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Upper low over the northern Great Lakes is expected to deepen and
slowly drop south over the Ohio Valley for the middle of the week.
This will lead to upper ridging remaining across the plains for
the today through the Thu time frame.

Looks like pleasant conditions today with seasonal temps in the
upper 70s for areas east of the I-135. Expect to see some good
downslope conditions across Central KS, which may lead to max temps
actually climbing into the lower 80s for areas west of I-135.

Upper low looks to drop south and actually retrogrades some back
into the Mississippi valley for Wed.  This upper low will help push
a secondary shot of Canadian air south with a backdoor/secondary
cold front pushing across the region early on Wed. This front will
push temps back a little below normal for Wed and more so on Thu as
the colder air settles across the region.  Lack of any moisture
underneath the upper ridge will lead to mainly a wind shift to the
north-northeast as the front moves south.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

 The upper low continues to spin over the Ohio Valley for
the first part of the weekend.  With the slow movement of the upper
low, expect the ridge of high pressure (to the west of the low) to
linger over most of the forecast area at least through the beginning
of the weekend. This will lead to seasonal temps and mostly clear
skies continuing for Fri-Sat.

Flow looks to become more zonal by the middle of the weekend, as a
kicker type system moves into the wrn US.  This will help flatten
out the ridge which will lead to low level moisture returning across
wrn KS for Sat into Sun. This could lead to showers and
thunderstorms moving back into western sections of the forecast area
late Sat night and again Sun night. Medium range models are a little
uncertain on the timing of the moisture return, which could delay
the return of showers/thunderstorms until the end of the weekend or
possibly even Monday.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

VFR conditions forecast at all sites throughout period. Light and
variable winds tonight. weak wind shift moves through most sites
during day on Tuesday but weakening gradient should result in
light and variable winds by tomorrow evening. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    82  57  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      83  55  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          81  56  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        80  56  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   81  57  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         83  53  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      84  53  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          80  54  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       82  54  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     79  54  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         78  55  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            78  55  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    79  55  77  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...PJH



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