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000
FXUS63 KICT 100117
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
717 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...AREAS THAT ARE CLEARING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS OUR REALIZING A GREATER TEMPERATURE DROP THAN EXPECTED
WITH MINS ALREADY BREACHED. THEREFORE HAVE MADE A DOWN TWEAK TO
MINS...EVEN IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE CLEARING LATER TONIGHT
OVER THE SNOW COVER WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FRIGID
READINGS. POP TRENDS IN SNOW LOOK ON TRACK WITH A RAPID DEMISE
BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY )
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE IMPACTING AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AN AREA OF SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1-3 INCHES SHOULD MAINLY STAY CONFINED TO COUNTIES ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH A SHARP DROP OFF IN COVERAGE AS ONE MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE WICHITA AREA BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THIS
AREA WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR DECENT AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND
ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO AGAIN DIP INTO THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS. CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHICH
COULD IMPACT THE LOW FORECAST BUT WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND AN
HOUR OR TWO OF CLEARING PRIOR TO SUNRISE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP QUICKLY

SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FINALLY CLIMBING INTO
THE MID 30S HOWEVER THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES IN EARLY WED MORNING. WITH VERY
DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND TO START THE DAY ON WED.
A BROAD UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD ON THURSDAY INDUCING SOMEWHAT WARMER MOIST
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY.

SMITH

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
PERIOD.  SURFACE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.  THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
40S FOR HIGHS.  WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 25 MPH GIVEN THE GRADIENT AND
THE WHAT THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER DATA SHOWS.  THESE VARIABLES
WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN.  THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST
THE 09.12Z CYCLE MODELS.

AS THIS OCCURS...A POTENT PV ANOMALY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE NATION BY FRIDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES SO THAT BY EVENING...THE
SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHERN
TEXAS.  THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE POSITION OF THIS LOW NEARLY
IDENTICAL AT 14.00Z.

A MODEST AREA OF Q-VECTOR FORCING MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF
KANSAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF BANDED
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.  THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

ONE LAST THING OF NOTE...BELIEVE THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE LOWER THAN FORECAST DURING THE
WEEKEND TIME FRAME. AT THIS TIME...CANNOT RESOLVE THIS IN
COLLABORATION SO STATUS QUO FORECAST REMAIN INTACT UNTIL IT CAN BE
RESOLVED.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THROUGH MID-EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AS THE
ASSOCIATED LIFT/UPPER LEVEL TROF VACATES THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT KCNU. OTHERWISE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND SOUTHERLY ON
TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALL AREAS FROM
LATE EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KED


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT     9  37  19  31 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      10  36  19  28 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON           9  36  18  29 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO         9  36  19  30 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD    9  36  17  32 /  40   0   0   0
RUSSELL          6  36  14  25 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND       5  36  16  25 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA           8  35  13  27 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON        9  35  17  27 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE      7  35  12  32 / 100   0   0  10
CHANUTE          9  34  17  31 /  50   0   0  10
IOLA             9  34  18  31 /  20   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF     9  34  13  32 /  90   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
KSZ093>096-098>100.

&&

$$