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000
FXUS63 KICT 260358
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
958 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED WELL INTO THE MID AND IN SOME AREAS UPPER
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS. AS OF 3PM THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH MCPHERSON AND
HUTCHINSON KANSAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...AND WINDS ARE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH...BUT
THE COLDEST AIR IS FURTHER BEHIND THE MAIN WIND CHANGE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TWO-PRONGED. 1. COLD
TEMPERATURES AND BITTER WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. 2. WINTER WEATHER
MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...BEGINNING A WINTER STORM WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED.

1. THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
INTO MISSOURI THAT THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN AND SNOW
WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR
AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS REALLY
LOW THAT ANY RAIN/SNOW WILL FALL OVER THOSE AREAS. IF IT
DOES...EXPECT IT TO BE LIGHT AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COLD AIR WILL SWEEP IN...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS. BITTER WIND
CHILLS OF 0 TO 10 BELOW POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW
20S. CLEARING SKIES ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING EVEN COLDER TEMPS
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILL TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE
AROUND 0 TO 10 BELOW.

2. THE BEGINNING OF THE WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT
OF THE PRECIP BY 12Z SATURDAY THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EVEN AT THAT
ITS STILL JUST ENTERING THE AREA TO THE WEST...WESTERN KANSAS WILL
BE THE AREA TO WATCH BEFORE 12Z. AFTER 12Z...THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION. ALL GUIDANCE
AGREES ON THAT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE EASIER PART OF THE WINTER STORM FORECAST AS
THE SOUNDING IS ALL BELOW FREEZING. SNOW WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THE TRICKY PART...AS USUAL IS THE SNOWFALL TOTALS. CURRENTLY
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR SATURDAY COULD BE A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA. MAINLY LOOKING AT 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR SATURDAY DURING THE DAY
POSSIBLE. THIS IS NOT A STORM TOTAL FORECAST AND THE AMOUNTS WILL
CHANGE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A WINTER STORM WHICH WILL BE
MESSY. WILL NEED TO CHECK BACK AS THE FORECAST NEARS FOR ANY
CHANGES.

WHILE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DETERMINING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS FAIRLY EASY...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...GETS
MESSY AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ENTER THE PICTURE. BY SUNDAY MORNING
WARMER LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
OCCURRING...WHICH MAKES DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE TRICKY. FOR
THIS FORECAST USED MAINLY THE GFS...AND TOOK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF
OF THE WARMEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE...TO GET THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THIS YIELDED FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE
SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME...FEEL IT IS TOO EARLY
TO IDENTIFY ANY AMOUNTS AS THE FORECAST IS LIKELY TO CHANGE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE IN CENTRAL KANSAS. DO NOT HAVE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL/STORM TOTALS...KEEP WATCHING.

SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY DURING THE DAY SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AT HAVING A LULL IN THE ACTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES DRYER AIR INTO PLACE. HOWEVER...THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE OFF AND ON...WITH CONFIDENCE DECREASING
BEYOND TUESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS PERSIST LATE THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TRANSIENT MVFR
MAY LINGER THROUGH AROUND 09Z WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. VFR IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 08-10Z
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VEERING WINDS AND DECREASING SPEEDS
EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

MWM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT WHEN THE WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY UPWARDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. THE COLD...DRY AIR
WILL COMBINE WITH THIS TO INCREASE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO VERY HIGH. OUTSIDE OF THIS
PERIOD THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS BELOW VERY HIGH AND NOT A
CONCERN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE
WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    16  24   7  24 /  10  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      14  23   5  24 /  10  10   0  10
NEWTON          13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        16  23   7  23 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   17  26   7  24 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         11  21   2  23 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     20  27   8  24 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         17  24   6  23 /  20  10   0   0
IOLA            16  23   5  22 /  30  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    19  26   7  24 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$