Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 102048
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
248 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Little has changed in the synoptic pattern across the CONUS with the
latest updates, as a highly amplified upper ridge continues to
dominate the western half of the U.S. while a deep trough sits over
the east. This setup will continue to support a northwest flow
regime for the Central Plains, resulting in virtually no chances for
precip and mild temperatures for central, south central, and
southeast Kansas over the next few days.

Today will be the warmest day in the forecast, with downslope flow
allowing afternoon highs to reach into the 60s across the area with
breezy northwesterly winds sustained near 20mph in central Kansas.

Models are in agreement that a clipper will dig across the Upper
Mississippi Valley area Monday before heading off to the Northeast
early Tuesday. This will push a cold front south across the area.
Low atmospheric moisture will prevent any precip from being
associated with the system, but a tightened gradient will produce
strong winds with gusts in excess of 35mph and localized higher
gusts possible, especially in central Kansas. When combined with low
relative humidity and cured grasses, grassland fire danger will be
very high to extreme on Monday afternoon over much of the region
(see Fire Weather Discussion below). In addition, 1000mb-500mb
thickness will drop in the wake of the system, cooling temperatures
back down a bit overnight Monday and into Tuesday, though they will
still be above normal for the time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

In the long term, another clipper is forecast to quickly make its
way across northeastern Kansas Wednesday evening. For now, it
appears that the associated surface low will remain well to the
north and east of the CWA, keeping any moisture transport or precip
chances at bay and continuing the dry pattern through the remainder
of the week for the Central Plains. The front will also cool temps
back down slightly for Thursday, as yet another gradual warming
trend will reset and temps trend upward and remain well above
normal heading into the weekend and into the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period.
Occasionally gusty winds this afternoon will decrease mid to late
afternoon. Front moving through area late in the forecast will
result in strong/gusty northwest winds developing tomorrow morning.
-Howerton


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Cured grasses, low relative humidity, and gusty winds will result in
very high to extreme grassland fire danger on Monday across much of
the area. The highest GFDI values will be predominately in central
and south central Kansas, but for now a Fire Weather Watch has been
issued for Monday across the entire CWA with the exception of the
far southeast counties. Any outdoor burning on Monday is highly
discouraged.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    32  61  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      31  61  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          30  59  27  49 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        30  60  28  48 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   30  62  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         31  59  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      31  59  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          32  59  27  51 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       31  59  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     30  62  29  47 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         31  60  28  45 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            30  58  28  45 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    30  62  28  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>071-082-083-091>095-098-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...TAV



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