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000
FXUS63 KICT 240420
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1120 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED VERY EARLY THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED THE MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT AND ARE NOW TRACKING
ACROSS EASTERN OK. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS HAVE EFFECTIVELY
BECOME THE COLD FRONT WHICH NOW STRETCHES FROM WEST-CENTRAL
KS...INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE DECAYING STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
TREND WITH A WEAK MCV EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS EVENING. THIS
REMNANT ENERGY MAY SPARK A FEW ISO SHOWERS/STORMS BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 315K SURFACE. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO
BEHAVE LIKE THEY DID THIS MORNING AND FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
PLACE THE BETTER STORM CHANCES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RETURN
FLOW AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON THU AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRI AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL BRING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH SPIKING TO AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO SAG
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE
TRANSITION TO MORE NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MID LEVEL
MONSOONAL ENERGY/MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN.

BY SUN MORNING THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MON-WED. WILL RUN WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES
FOR THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
WEST ALLOWING SOME WEAK UPPER UPPER ENERGY TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL COOLING ALONG WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. CNU COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE BRIEF IFR VSBYS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. STEEPENING
LEE TROUGH THURSDAY...WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS
TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  94  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      69  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          67  93  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        67  91  73 100 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  93  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         68  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      68  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          68  97  75 104 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  89  71  98 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         66  89  72  97 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            66  88  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  89  71  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$