Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 180900
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
400 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

This Morning:
Mid-level shortwave that is moving slowly E/SE across the Northern
Plains is interacting with a moist lower-deck environment to
sustain an area of thunderstorms that is moving east over Central
& South-Central KS early this morning. A 2nd & much larger area of
thunderstorms is pushing east across the Southwest KS/OK Panhandle
neighborhood. The tops of this 2nd area of thunderstorms are
"keeping their cool" and with the thunderstorms continuing to make
steady eastward progress have decided to increase thunderstorm
potential across South-Central KS for this morning.

This afternoon & Tonight:
As the afore-mentioned shortwave continues its trek E/SE across
the MO Valley it`ll drag a weak cold front SE into, then across
most of KICT Country this evening. This would bring more
thunderstorms into South-Central & especially Southeast KS late
this afternoon & tonight. These thunderstorms would be more robust
as the departing mid-upper wave crosses the upper MS Valley deep-
layer shear will greatly increase and with the cold front in the
immediate neighborhood the directional shear would be further
enhanced. The increased directional shear will interact with a
greatly destabilizing airmass to enable thunderstorms to easily
achieve severity over Southeast KS. The NAM, GFS & ECMWF depict
SBCAPES soaring into the 4000-5000 J/KG across Eastern KS where
golfball-sized hail would be the primary threat. The only
potential caveat would be the effects of the morning convection,
but the previous reasoning prompts a stronger approach. The SE
progress of the front will need to be watched closely for if it
decelerates too much, thunderstorms may continue later into the
night along the OK border.

Sat & Sat Night:
More thunderstorms should arrive KS Sat Night but with broad mid
to upper deck ridging in place most thunderstorms should behave.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Monday, otherwise known as the day of the total eclipse, looks to
remain very warm and mainly dry. Some late day convection is
possible coming off the high Plains into central Kansas. A more
amplified upper trough still looks to develop across the Great
Lakes by Tuesday and Wednesday, which should allow a cold front
to settle south across Kansas. So will continue to carry modest
chance PoPs with the frontal passage and slight cooling in its
wake.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Main concern continues to be the thunderstorm potential. RAP/HRRR
seemingly have a decent handle on ongoing convection. This would
push storms across KRSL/KGBD and KSLN over the next few hours,
with lower probabilities at KHUT and KICT where chances will be
limited to VCTS for now. Forecast becomes increasingly challenging
tomorrow with models showing significantly differ speeds/
locations for cold front in the afternoon. This will have big
impact on storm potential at KHUT/KICT and eventually KCNU. Opted
to go a bit slower than the RAP and a bit faster than the GFS.
This puts KICT on the cusp of convective development in the
afternoon. Highest probability at KCNU will be in the evening, but
outside chance that a few storms could develop in peak heating
ahead of the front. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    92  68  95  72 /  30  20   0  10
Hutchinson      92  66  95  71 /  30  10   0  20
Newton          90  66  93  71 /  30  10   0  20
ElDorado        89  67  92  71 /  30  30   0  20
Winfield-KWLD   91  68  94  72 /  30  40  10  10
Russell         92  63  97  69 /  20   0   0  30
Great Bend      93  64  95  70 /  20   0   0  20
Salina          93  64  97  71 /  30   0   0  20
McPherson       92  64  94  70 /  30   0   0  20
Coffeyville     89  69  93  71 /  30  50  10  20
Chanute         88  67  92  69 /  40  50   0  10
Iola            88  66  91  69 /  50  50   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    89  68  92  70 /  40  60   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...PJH



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