Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 031711
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1211 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND FOCUS AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...AND A WARMING TREND
LATE WEEK/WEEKEND.

TODAY:

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE LOW-MID
90S...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES WILL BE TEMPERED IN THE MID-UPPER 90S
DUE TO DEWPOINTS REMAINING A BIT LOWER IN THE 60S. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE...AND JUST WEST/SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH AND
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY:

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY MORE TOWARD DAWN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DESPITE MODEST/STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. FOR TUESDAY...PERSISTENT
850- 700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS OFF-AND-ON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW STRONG/SEVERE LEVELS...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
INSTABILITY MAY PROMOTE STRONG/SEVERE CHANCES BY LATE AFTERNOON
OVER CENTRAL KS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THOUGH. FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-135...AS 850-700MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION RAMPS UP. IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUED HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT...INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A STRONG
LOW- LEVEL JET IN CONCERT WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
A HANDFUL OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST
KS WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH LATEST ECMWF LINGERS ACTIVITY A
BIT LONGER WEDNESDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

IN GENERAL...LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (ALBEIT NOT ZERO) AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TREND LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA. THE EXCEPTIONS PRECIPITATION-WISE MAY BE
THURSDAY NIGHT-EARLY FRIDAY...AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE
RIDGE AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THESE CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN/NORTHEAST KS ALONG
NORTHEAST EDGE OF WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...SIDED CLOSER TO THE SOMEWHAT COOLER ECMWF/GEM MODELS FOR
NOW. THE WARMER GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER...BUT IF IT VERIFIES
IT WOULD SUPPORT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S LATE WEEK-WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TO SHIFT
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. FURTHER SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT. INTRODUCED SOME TSRA AFTER 12-14Z ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KS AS SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  72  86  69 /  10  30  60  60
HUTCHINSON      95  71  85  67 /  10  30  60  50
NEWTON          93  71  83  67 /  10  20  60  60
ELDORADO        94  71  85  68 /  10  20  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  73  86  70 /  10  30  60  50
RUSSELL         95  70  85  66 /  10  20  50  40
GREAT BEND      94  69  85  66 /  10  40  50  40
SALINA          93  71  86  68 /  10  20  50  60
MCPHERSON       94  71  85  67 /  10  30  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     95  73  87  71 /  10  10  60  60
CHANUTE         94  72  86  69 /  10  10  50  60
IOLA            94  72  86  68 /  10  10  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    94  73  86  70 /  10  10  60  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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