Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

000
FXUS63 KICT 200435
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1135 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Cold front currently stretches from northeast IA and across
southern Nebraska with a surface trough extending from central KS
into the OK Panhandle. South of this front an unseasonably warm
and moist airmass is in place across the eastern half of KS and
OK.

Some patchy fog will be possible late tonight into early Tue
morning, generally along and north of I-70. This will be near the weak
surface trough. Feel the more widespread fog potential will be
north and northeast of the forecast area tonight. Better storm
chances tonight will remain northeast of the forecast area, along
the front, where capping will be weaker.

Upper ridging is expected to maintain across the southern Plains
through Tue. Attention will then turn to some remnant eastern
Pacific energy, mostly from hurricane Paine. There is good model
agreement that this energy will quickly lift across the desert sw
and across the Rockies by Tue night. By Wed afternoon it will be
tracking across central/eastern Nebraska. The bulk of the precip
associated with this feature will stay north, over the northern
Mississippi Valley. With that said, there will be some small
chances over central KS Wed night as some of the better mid level
moisture transport starts to affect the area. There is good
agreement between the ECMWF and GFS that a sharp upper trough will
dig across the Central Great Basin Thu into Thu night.

Confidence is high that above normal temps will remain over the
entire area through Thu. Normal highs for this time of year are in
the low 80s. In addition, high dewpoints will also make for muggy
conditions that will continue through most of the week.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

There is decent model agreement that the southern part of the
upper energy will get cut off over the desert sw/Great Basin for
the end of the work week as a northern chunk lifts over the
northern Plains. In addition, both the GFS and ECMWF retrograde
the closed low slightly for the end of the weekend into the start
of the work week. At this time, the best chances for rain through
this forecast package look to be Sat night through Sun night, when
upper diffluence from the closed upper low may impact our
forecast area. Above normal temps look to remain in place for at
least Fri and Sat before increased clouds and rain chances start
to impact temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

A frontal boundary across central KS will become diffuse with light
southerly winds returning to the area by early morning. Wind
speeds will increase across the area on Tuesday as low pressure
deepens across the Rockies. Cirrus will also return from west to
east through the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  94  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      68  94  71  91 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          69  93  70  90 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        70  93  70  90 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   70  94  71  91 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         65  94  71  90 /   0   0  10  20
Great Bend      66  95  71  91 /   0   0  10  20
Salina          67  93  72  91 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       67  93  71  91 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     70  93  70  91 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         70  91  69  90 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            70  92  69  89 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    70  92  69  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...MWM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.