Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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543
FXUS63 KICT 290000
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
700 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVERNIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SOUTHEASTERLY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300-305K LAYER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER LATER TONIGHT (MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS). INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE MARGINAL WITH
LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE-TILT. ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY...TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH MAY LIFT AS FAR
NORTH AS I-40 OR SLIGHT FURTHER NORTH IN OKLAHOMA. THE HIGH STORM
CHANCES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCLUDE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO FAR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS. MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ARE
PROGGED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...USING A BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM-WRF MODELS...WITH VERY HIGH CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR OF 45-70
KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE OF 1 TO
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...ALTHOUGH LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS MOVING
NORTHWARD OUT OF OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD PRODUCE
VERY LARGE HAIL >2 INCH DIAMETER VERY CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER.

THE STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHEAR
EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW PROBABILITIES (20-30%) OF
SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDER FOR MAINLY WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH/MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET. COOLER AIR
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY.

EXPECTING 1 TO 2 INCH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRING FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SOME POSSIBILITY A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
ALTHOUGH OUR FORECAST AREA IS NOT OUTLOOKED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
AS IT EJECTS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE COULD PRODUCE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. COOLER
THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

ALL TERMINALS WL RMN VFR TIL 06-09Z WHEN CIGS AT KGBD & KRSL WOULD
QUICKLY DROP TO "LOW-END" MVFR AS AREAS OF RA & EMBEDDED TSRA MOVE
INTO THESE AREAS. VSBYS FM 4-5SM ARE LKLY AT BOTH TERMINALS FM 08Z
ONWARD. LOW-END MVFR CIGS ARE NOT XPCTD TO REACH KHUT & KICT UNTIL
~12Z. WINDS ACRS CNTRL & SC KS THAT ARE ~10KTS WL SLOWLY INCR LATE
THIS EVE TO A SUSTAINED 13-17KTS WITH SPEEDS ACRS SE KS INCRG MUCH
QUICKER FROM LGT NELY TO ~13Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  67  53  71 /  40  80  80  10
HUTCHINSON      50  62  49  67 /  60  80  80  20
NEWTON          50  65  53  68 /  40  70  80  20
ELDORADO        52  67  54  70 /  30  70  80  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   54  70  54  73 /  40  80  80  10
RUSSELL         44  54  43  61 /  70  80  90  40
GREAT BEND      45  57  44  63 /  80  80  80  20
SALINA          46  60  50  66 /  50  70  80  40
MCPHERSON       49  62  50  66 /  50  70  80  20
COFFEYVILLE     53  71  59  75 /  30  70  80  20
CHANUTE         51  69  59  72 /  20  50  80  30
IOLA            50  68  59  72 /  30  50  80  30
PARSONS-KPPF    53  70  59  74 /  20  60  80  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...EPS



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