Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 201741
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1141 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

A SOUTHERN BRANCH JET STREAM WILL BE ACTIVE WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PRESENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS TODAY MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
WARM AS YESTERDAY IN THE SOUTH WITH LACK OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW...HOWEVER
MOST AREAS WILL HAVE HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 40S. THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER...UPSTREAM TROUGH
DIGS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL INDUCE LOW-LEVEL MOIST/WARM
ADVECTION NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING IN THE 285-295K LAYER.
WITH FORECAST LOWS SLANTED TOWARD THE COLDER NAM-WRF WITH
PREDOMINATELY SHALLOW EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY INTO MID-LATE
MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES DRIZZLE. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE ON UNTREATED ROADS AND
SURFACES...MAKING FOR POTENTIALLY SLICK CONDITIONS. LOW
STRATUS/DRIZZLE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CONTAINED TO THE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS FRIDAY.

THE UPSTREAM STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN REACHING THE LOWER-MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WHILE STRENGTHENING AND TAKING ON A
NEGATIVE-TILT. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO SPREAD NORTH
INTO OUR AREA...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER BECOMING LIKELY
EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF
DRAMATICALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST KS SUNDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA. AS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRIER AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD PROVIDE A SLIGHT COOLDOWN WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK MAINLY IN
THE 40S. MONDAY WILL ALSO BE BRISK WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS, LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE, AND A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL, SOUTH CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFFECTING ALL
TERMINALS. WHILE THE TIMING WILL DIFFER FOR ONSET OF IFR/LIFR AT
EACH TERMINAL, JUST ABOUT ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE IFR/LIFR DURING
ROUGHLY 1200 TO 1800 UTC TIME FRAME FRIDAY. THE QUESTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE VS. DRIZZLE IS A BIG CHALLENGE, AS WE EXPECT A SLOW INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES TO AND ABOVE 32F AFTER THE ONSET OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THE MOST LIKELY PERSISTENT ZONE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
NORTH OF A HUT-ICT LINE, AND FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH
LATE MORNING AT SLN AND PERHAPS EVEN AS FAR WEST AS RSL, ALTHOUGH
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY BE AT OR NEAR RSL.

UMSCHEID

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    49  29  44  38 /   0  20  30  20
HUTCHINSON      46  26  42  35 /   0  20  20  10
NEWTON          47  27  42  37 /   0  20  30  20
ELDORADO        47  29  45  39 /   0  20  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   51  32  49  42 /   0  20  30  30
RUSSELL         46  24  42  30 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      47  25  42  32 /   0  10  10  10
SALINA          45  24  41  34 /   0  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       46  26  42  35 /   0  10  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     51  33  51  46 /   0  30  40  40
CHANUTE         46  30  46  44 /   0  20  40  40
IOLA            45  28  45  43 /   0  20  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    48  31  49  45 /   0  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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