Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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848
FXUS63 KICT 182117
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
317 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Water vapor imagery is showing a couple different impulses, one
over southwest TX and another tracking over the Great Lakes. At
the surface, high pressure is centered over southern LA/MS with
lee troughing over eastern CO/NM.

Not much is expected to change for Fri as we have another day of
above normal temps with highs west of I-135 reaching the 60 degree
mark. Limited mixing will keep temps from getting to record
levels tomorrow as mixing to 850mb would actually be supportive of
70-80 degree highs.

Our next storm system is expected to come on shore over southern
CA Fri night and across the desert southwest on Sat. This wave is
expected to move out across the high Plains Sun morning and into
eastern Nebraska by Sun evening. Both ECMWF and GFS have remained
fairly consistent with this feature which does lead to higher than
normal confidence. So current thinking is that areas along and
especially north of I-70 will have the best chance to see some
wintry precip primarily Sun night. While a brief period of
rain/snow mix can`t be ruled out, lack of an elevated warm layer
should limit sleet or freezing rain accumulation for areas that do
see some precip.

In the warm sector of this system, a few storms will be possible
Sun afternoon across far southeast KS, with better chances just
east and southeast of the forecast area. Well above normal temps
and windy conditions will also be likely for both Sat and Sun,
especially for areas along and southeast of the KS Turnpike.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Powerful shortwave will be lifting off to the northeast on Mon
with snow coming to and end across northeast KS. One of the big
differences between this system and our previous one will be the
lack of cold air behind it. Areas that do not see snow, can
expect highs Mon and Tue in the 40s, which is close to normal for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the 18Z TAF
period. Prevailing winds out of the south/southwest will dominate
the flow regime with speeds gusting in excess of 20mph at some
airports today as the pressure gradient tightens. Other than a few
high clouds, aviation concerns will be minimal over the next 24
hours.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    24  56  34  55 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      23  56  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          24  54  32  53 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        25  53  35  55 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   24  56  36  57 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         22  61  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      23  61  27  54 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          24  52  29  52 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       24  55  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     25  52  37  56 /   0   0  10  10
Chanute         25  49  35  53 /   0   0  10  10
Iola            25  48  35  52 /   0   0  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    25  51  36  55 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...TAV



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