Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 070318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
918 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Issued at 916 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Latest hi-rez models continue to come in drier and drier than
previous runs. Especially when it comes to moisture that will be
available as the shortwave and lift currently over the Rockies
makes its way into the Plains for the daytime hours on Wed. Latest
Bufkit soundings also show a drier trend, with the NAM-WRF the
"wettest" only showing about 3 to 4 hours of saturation in the
main snow growth region for a light snow chance across Central KS.
Think areas along I-70 still have the best chance to see an inch
or two. But getting more and more pessimistic that persons in
South Central KS will see anything more than flurries. Have
adjusted snow totals down some with this in mind.

The main story is beginning to look more and more about the
secondary shot of arctic air that will plunge south for Wed night,
which will lead to wind chill values near zero by Thu morning.



.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 312 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

An upstream shortwave trough was digging into the Great Basin from
the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. This area of channel vorticity
will move quickly eastward across the Central Plains late tonight
into Wednesday, supported by a strong upper level jet stream. This
shortwave will have two main impacts: It will bring a chance of
measurable snow to much of the forecast area Wednesday, while also
dislodging the main chunk of polar air from the Canadian
Intermountain region and Northern High Plains- southward into Kansas
from Wednesday into Friday. This will feature the coldest air of the
season thus far for the forecast area.

The approaching energy will result in an increase in cloud cover
tonight. Strong 700-650 mb layer frontogenetical forcing will allow
for an area of accumulating snow to develop over northwest Kansas
later this evening, with the snow area expanding eastward across
northern Kansas overnight. The mid-level frontogenesis zone will
then shift southward across central/eastern Kansas during Wednesday,
exiting the far southern counties by early Wednesday evening. The
strongest overall forcing and most favorable snow sounding profiles
favor 1-2 inches in central Kansas through east-central Kansas.
Further south, expecting a trace to around 1/2 inch in south-central
Kansas into the far southeast counties, where the duration of
snowfall should be more limited with the progressive nature of the
mid-level front.

Clearing skies are expected behind the departing wave Wednesday
night into Thursday, as the polar surface high builds into the
region with much colder than normal air. Low temperatures in the
single digits and teens are slated both Wednesday night and Thursday
night, with Thursday night being the coldest of the two. Wind chills
of zero to 5 below are forecast in central Kansas late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

The polar surface high is progged to shift east of the region Friday
night into Saturday with moderating temperatures. A progressive
shortwave trough will sweep eastward across the Central Plains
Saturday night into Sunday, which may result in chances for light
snow/rain across northern/eastern portions of Kansas, however little
in the way of impacts are expected at this time. Cooler air may
infiltrate the region Sunday, before temperatures moderate again
Monday. The ECMWF and GEFS indicate another polar front sliding
southward through the Central Plains Tuesday into Wednesday, but
differ as to whether this airmass will be shallow or deep. Currently
projecting near normal highs Tuesday, however temperatures may fall
sharply during the day if these models are correct.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 553 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

VFR conditions are expected for the first 12 hours, but
deteriorating TAF conditions are expected across the area for the
daylight hours on Wed. An upper level disturbance will increase
mid level moisture this evening and overnight, with cigs slowly
diminishing from 10k feet AGL to 6k ft by Wed morning. Central KS
will be the first to be affected by possible MVFR cigs and vsbys
as saturation increases in the mid layers and light snow develops.
Could see some scattered light snow for KRSL by as early as
08z/Wed but will only go with a VCSH for this chance, with
prevailing light snow and MVFR cigs/vis expected by 12z/wed for

Will see the light snow chance in Central KS for the KGBD/KSLN/KHUT
and KRSL Tafs between 12-18z/Wed with the snow chance gradually
dropping E-SE into South Central KS by Wed aftn. Could see some MVFR
vsbys near KICT and KCNU but drier low layers will keep cigs in the
VFR range.



Wichita-KICT    25  34  16  29 /  10  50  10   0
Hutchinson      23  31  14  27 /  10  50  10   0
Newton          24  31  13  26 /  10  50  10   0
ElDorado        25  34  15  27 /  10  50  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   27  35  17  30 /   0  40  10   0
Russell         21  27  10  25 /  40  70   0   0
Great Bend      22  29  10  26 /  20  70   0   0
Salina          23  29  11  26 /  20  70   0   0
McPherson       23  29  12  26 /  10  70  10   0
Coffeyville     27  37  18  31 /   0  50  20   0
Chanute         26  35  17  29 /   0  60  20   0
Iola            26  33  16  27 /   0  60  20   0
Parsons-KPPF    28  37  18  30 /   0  60  20   0




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