Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 230739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO OKLAHOMA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE HUMID CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW AND MAY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT ALONG 700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO
SPARK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY AND FLATTEN OUT COME FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAT BUILDING AGAIN
OVER KANSAS. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SUNDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
STILL LOOKS WEAK. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING AND BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF NE KS AND
BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OVER THE ERN HALF OF KS BY WED MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NE AND
EAST BY WED MORNING.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE OVER SE KS...WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP FOR THE MORNING
HOURS ON WED. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PESKY GROUND FOG DURING THE 09-13Z
TIME FRAME OVER KICT/KHUT WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS.

CONSIDERABLE QUESTION AS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE WEAK
BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/TIMING ISSUES...OPTED TO KEEP THE
TAFS DRY FOR NOW.  IF ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP THINK THE CHANCE WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  70  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  69  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        93  69  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         93  70  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      93  70  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          94  68  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  69  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     94  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         91  68  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            90  67  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  69  92  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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