Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 132343
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
543 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 214 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

A broad area of high pressure positioned off to the northeast is
providing southerly flow over most of the CWA today. The ridge
axis from the high pressure is also extending into the region.
This is trapping the low level moisture over the region. Mid level
flow is out of the southwest which is over running the low level
moisture. This is preventing any subsidence over CWA and will keep
the clouds and a chance for some drizzle for the next day or so.
Lowered temps for tomorrow to compensate due to the expected
cloud cover and increased pops to account for the increased chance
for drizzle.

Wednesday through Thursday night:

The next strong weather system will begin to move into the
region. Winds will pick up ahead of the front which will help
scrub out the low level clouds Wednesday morning. Moisture
transport is expected to pick up during this time as well and
instability will sufficient along with forcing to allow for some
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday morning. winds will kick back
around to the northwest behind the front and will keep the
temperatures below normal through the remainder of the short term.
The pressure gradient will be tight enough to allow for some
gusty northwest winds behind the front as well.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Long term forecast is problematic as the GFS/GEFS indicating major
weather system will come through Friday night and into Saturday
with a decent shot of cold air behind with a slow warming trend
early next week. ECMWF is slower and colder for the most part with
front coming through Saturday afternoon and hints as a rain and
snow mix for a brief time behind the front. Both model families
agree this weather system for Fri/Sat will be potent but moisture
transport looks rather weak so confidence on precipitation with
the front is very low. Confidence is improving to the chance of
warming temperatures ahead of the front as the pressure gradient
will pick up. This will allow some WAA to occur and increases the
chances for temperatures to be above normal for at least one day
this week. By Saturday afternoon, temperatures are expected to
take another tumble back down below normal for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 536 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Ceilings and visibilities are expected to deteriorate as we move
through the overnight hours with widespread drizzle and fog. IFR
and MVFR across the area early this evening will fall with
widespread LIFR and IFR developing across as warm and moist air is
drawn north across the region. There is some concern that areas
of dense fog could develop across central and portions of south
central KS as higher dewpoints across southern OK are advected
toward the area late tonight and into the morning hours on Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    49  57  49  61 /  40  20  40  10
Hutchinson      47  58  45  61 /  20  10  30  10
Newton          48  56  46  60 /  30  20  40  10
ElDorado        49  55  50  60 /  50  20  50  20
Winfield-KWLD   51  57  52  62 /  50  20  50  30
Russell         45  54  39  59 /  10  10  10   0
Great Bend      45  55  40  59 /  10  10  10   0
Salina          46  57  43  60 /  10  10  20   0
McPherson       47  57  44  60 /  20  10  30  10
Coffeyville     50  53  53  63 /  50  30  70  40
Chanute         49  52  52  61 /  50  30  70  40
Iola            49  51  51  60 /  40  30  70  40
Parsons-KPPF    50  53  53  62 /  50  30  70  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...MWM



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