Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 241131
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
531 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A PROGRESSIVE REGIME THROUGH THE
SHORT RANGE PERIODS WITH MULTIPLE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...ONLY AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL AS
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED PBL. SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED MON-WED. WINDS MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED
DURING THE DAY ON WED AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF MILD LATE NOVEMBER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES. THIS WOULD ALLOW A SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF REMAINS A
BIT SLOWER DRIVING THIS AIRMASS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. MAINTAINED
MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TRENDING
COOLER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA WHILE MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN SLOWLY STARTING TO TRACK EAST OVER THE ROCKIES.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE A GOOD BET. THESE WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIE OFF TOWARD SUNSET.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  23  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      49  23  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          48  22  50  33 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        49  24  51  35 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  24  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         49  22  51  31 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      50  23  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          48  23  53  34 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       48  22  51  33 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     53  25  52  33 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         49  23  50  32 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            48  23  49  31 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    51  22  51  31 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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