Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 190427
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1127 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows next weather system
pushing onshore over California. This will system will track
eastward tonight across the Rockies and eject out into
Nebraska/South Dakota on Wednesday. A cold front will push southward
into central Kansas by late afternoon with the surface pressure
gradient tightening up ahead of the front creating strong south
winds. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over Eastern Nebraska
by mid afternoon and build southwest along the front into Central
Kansas around 6pm. Severe storms with large hail/damaging winds are
likely with given instability and wind shear combination. There is
also a small risk for a high-based land spout tornado in Central
Kansas before sunset. The storms will quickly develop into a line
and move southeast for Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Surface high pressure will build over the area on Thursday with
showers/storms exiting Southeast Kansas by late morning and cooler
daytime highs. A second more pronounced upper level wave will dive
southeast across the Rockies Thursday night and deepen over Southern
Kansas by Friday night. Elevated thunderstorms will be possible over
western Kansas ahead of this system Thursday night as moisture
streams back northward over-running the warm front. This activity
looks to increase in coverage as it spreads eastward across Kansas,
especially for Friday afternoon/night as the upper level wave
deepens. The slow movement of this system should bring widespread 1
to 2 inches of rain to the region. Daytime highs on Friday will be
even cooler with clouds and precipitation over the area and surface
front well to the south.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Current timing of the upper level wave suggests that Saturday
morning will see lingering rain showers and below normal
temperatures along with gusty northerly winds. Otherwise long range
models show a dry weather pattern shaping up for Kansas on Sunday
into early next week along with warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

VFR conditions are expected across the area for the overnight hours.
The low level jet will increase winds just off the surface for the
early morning hours on Wed, with low level wind shear of 40kts
possible at around 2000 feet agl. The low level jet and moisture
transport will increase by Wed morning, which will lead to some
stratocu and possibly some MVFR cigs developing over South Central
KS by 12-14z Wed. Will insert a scattered 2500 foot deck for now, as
confidence in the lower cigs is low.

A cold front will begin to push into Central KS by late Wed
afternoon. Could see some TSRA develop along this front across
Central KS by around 22z/Wed, so will insert a VCTS for the
KRSL/KGBD and KSLN taf sites. expect the convection to become
widespread along the southward moving cold front after 00z/Thu, so
will go with prevailing SHRA/VCTS for most of the Central KS tafs
after 00z, and after 02z for the KHUT and KICT taf site as the
front pushes south.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    61  82  55  67 /  10  10  50  20
Hutchinson      61  83  52  67 /  10  10  50  10
Newton          60  81  52  65 /  10  10  50  20
ElDorado        61  83  55  66 /  10  10  50  30
Winfield-KWLD   62  83  57  68 /  10   0  50  30
Russell         60  85  48  68 /  10  20  30   0
Great Bend      60  85  49  68 /  10  30  50   0
Salina          63  84  51  68 /  10  40  60  10
McPherson       61  82  51  66 /  10  20  60  10
Coffeyville     61  83  61  70 /  10   0  50  50
Chanute         61  82  58  67 /  10   0  50  50
Iola            61  82  57  67 /  10   0  50  50
Parsons-KPPF    61  82  60  68 /  10   0  50  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...BDK



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