Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 261452
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
952 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY ALONG THE MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE...LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN SURFACE
BOUNDARY.  MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH AND IS
LOCATED ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER IN SE KS. LATEST OBSERVATION STILL
SHOWS SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...BUT
LOOKING FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL KS
AT THIS TIME.  LATEST SHORT RANGE HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO OK FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LINGERING UNSTABLE AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT
ALSO PUSHING SOUTH INTO OK AS WELL.  THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY END MOST
OF THE CONVECTION IN MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MAINLY
JUST SOME LINGERING ELEVATED STORMS OVER SE KS UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WEST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE...WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN ASSOCIATED DEEP FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST HAVE TRIGGERED NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE KS/MO REGION. THINKING THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
WITH A FORWARD PROPAGATING COMPLEX SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN KS HAS STEADILY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...AND OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED
OCCURRENCES OF PEA- DIME SIZE HAIL AND 50-60 MPH WINDS...THINKING
THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER HERE IS OVER.
HOWEVER...GIVEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

SO ALL-IN-ALL...EXPECTING HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...AS THE DEEP COLD
FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...INTERACTING
WITH A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE
MOSTLY LOW...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT LOCALLY VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

OTHERWISE...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH
ACROSS MID-AMERICA. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE
EXPECTED TODAY-SATURDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...ALONG
WITH NOTICEABLY LOWER HUMIDITY. SUNDAY SHOULD WARM UP WELL INTO
THE 90S ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AIDED BY
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. DESPITE LIKELY ONLY MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THIS FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT NEXT WEEK
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH A TROUGH OUT EAST AND A RIDGE OUT
WEST. CONSEQUENTLY...THE KANSAS REGION WILL BE THE DIVIDING LINE
BETWEEN HOT WEATHER FURTHER WEST AND COOLER WEATHER FURTHER EAST.
WONDERING IF TUESDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...AS ADVERTISED BY ECMWF/GFS. THIS
WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

TOUGH CALL ON THE FIRST 6HRS OF FORECAST. STORMS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT KICT/KCNU AND PROBABLY KHUT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.
MVFR-IFR CEILINGS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...AND COULD AFFECT KRSL/KSLN/KHUT. MODELS HINT THAT THIS
SHOULD LIFT BY MIDDAY BUT WITH WITH 850MB MOISTURE
LINGERING...WILL LIKELY HAVE STRATOCUMULUS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  64  86  65 /  60  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      85  61  86  63 /  40   0   0  10
NEWTON          84  62  84  63 /  50  10  10   0
ELDORADO        84  61  84  62 /  60  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  64  85  64 /  60  10  10   0
RUSSELL         83  59  87  63 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      83  59  87  63 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          84  62  87  65 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       84  61  86  63 /  30   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  64  85  63 /  60  20  10   0
CHANUTE         84  62  84  61 /  60  10  10   0
IOLA            83  62  83  61 /  60  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    85  62  84  62 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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