Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 220547
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1147 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND HAS
GOTTEN PROGRESSIVELY WORSE. THIS IS FROM PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE 290K SURFACE AS WELL AS OTHERS. KICT
88D AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING LIGHT RAIN EXPANDING AND MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND INTO KANSAS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OVERLAID 500 MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW A
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS THROUGH IS
PROGRESSING VERY SLOWLY WHICH CONTINUES TO KEEP THE REGION IN THIS
PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN.

SHORT TERM WEATHER FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS/FOG. GIVEN
THE RECENT TRENDS OF THESE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FORECAST OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT THESE THREATS WILL CONTINUE. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS
WHETHER DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR. THE MOISTURE IS THERE...BUT WIND MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE IT AS WELL AS ANY RAINFALL. THEREFORE...WILL
HOLD OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS LOCATED IN MONTANA TODAY...WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY AND BECOME VERTICALLY
STACKED. THIS WILL PROLONG THE TIME THIS SYSTEM SITS OVER AND
AFFECTS THE REGION.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMES IN BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BEGIN AS RAIN BUT CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW DURING THE EVENT SHOULD IT OCCUR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK
VERY LIGHT WITH THIS EVENT AT THIS TIME.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME BECOMES RATHER PROGRESSIVE DURING THE
PERIOD WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EVERY COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SINCE THE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE...THE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL REMAIN CLOSED.
FURTHERMORE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER MODERATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW CEILINGS AND FOG.

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH SOME LIFR CEILINGS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. WOULD EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER A BIT MORE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DRIZZLE PICKS UP...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT RAIN IS NOW SHOWING UP
ON RADAR AS THE UPPER WAVE DIVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ONE
OF THE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO DELAY THE PUSH OF
DRIER AIR WHICH MEANS LOWER CIGS MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WEST AND NW WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FINALLY FILTER-IN AND ALLOWING
CEILINGS TO CLIMB.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  51  32  41 /  30  30  10  20
HUTCHINSON      40  50  31  39 /  40  30  10  20
NEWTON          41  49  31  39 /  40  30  10  20
ELDORADO        42  51  32  41 /  40  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   43  52  32  43 /  30  30  10  10
RUSSELL         35  48  30  37 /  30  20  20  20
GREAT BEND      36  49  31  37 /  30  20  20  20
SALINA          40  49  32  38 /  50  30  20  20
MCPHERSON       40  49  31  38 /  40  30  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     44  54  34  44 /  30  40  10  10
CHANUTE         42  52  33  43 /  40  50  10  10
IOLA            42  51  33  42 /  40  50  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    44  53  33  44 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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