Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
000
FXUS63 KICT 110457
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1157 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Water vapor imagery shows potent shortwave impulse tracking across
northern WI and approaching the western Great Lakes. At the
surface, cold front extends from northern MO and across far
northern KS.

Storms have developed along the cold front over nw KS, likely
aided by upslope processes. Current thinking is that storms will
continue along the front as it pushes south this evening. Should
also see convection expand in coverage as 850-700mb moisture
transport ramps up toward sunset in addition to much of the area
moving into the right entrance region of an unseasonably strong
upper jet. While storms will be possible just about anywhere
across forecast area this evening, feel the more robust activity
should be generally along and west of I-135 where better
instability will be situated. Should once again be plenty of shear
for large hail with downburst winds also a threat. Will also run
with a flood watch for areas that have received the most rainfall
over the past several days which will generally be the southwest
corner of our forecast area. Thing should be fairly progressive
with the bulk of the activity south of the forecast area by 2 am.

By sunrise Fri, the majority of the showers and storms should be
down in OK with a cool airmass left over KS. Expecting an increase
in convection Fri night over western KS as some of the deeper
moisture starts to work back around the western fringe of the
surface high. This will also be aided by sw KS remaining in the
right entrance region of the upper jet. There is good model
agreement in shortwave energy diving southeast out of the
central/northern Rockies Sat night that should ramp up shower and
storm chances. Some of this may linger into Sun as the atmosphere
remains very moist in the low levels.

Confidence remains high that below normal afternoon highs will
maintain through the weekend but will still feel muggy as we keep
some low level moisture around.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Pattern looks to remain unsettled through much of this period.
Unseasonably strong westerlies will remain in place as the
surface high shifts east. This will keep low level moisture in
place as a number of perturbations slide through the flow. At
this time the better rain chances look to be Tue into Tue night as
a wave slides across northern KS and Nebraska. May actually see a
warming trend toward the end of the work week which may get
afternoon highs back closer to seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Ongoing convection over southeast Kansas will continue, therefore
have a long duration VCTS for KCNU. The reason for that is
instability and low level moisture transport will support
convection over southeast Kansas for the next several hours.

Moreover, the complex of storms over the western part of the state
will head east and move into the region overnight. The northern
extent of the storms will probably remain south of Highway 50.

Given the cirrus shield from the MCS, fog unlikely so removed from
TAFs. The complex of storms will exit the state around Noon
Friday. The next chance of storms will be very late Friday night.

Outside of storms, some MVFR CIGS around but they are short
lived. Therefore, carried SCT025 rather than broken.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  82  67  81 /  90  40  20  50
Hutchinson      65  83  65  80 /  60  10  20  50
Newton          66  83  64  79 /  60  10  20  40
ElDorado        67  82  64  80 /  80  50  20  40
Winfield-KWLD   68  83  67  81 /  80  30  20  50
Russell         62  82  64  81 /  30  20  30  40
Great Bend      63  83  65  81 /  50  10  30  50
Salina          64  84  65  82 /  20  10  20  30
McPherson       64  83  64  80 /  40  10  20  40
Coffeyville     68  84  66  82 /  70  70  20  40
Chanute         66  83  65  82 /  40  40  10  40
Iola            67  83  64  81 /  30  30  10  30
Parsons-KPPF    68  83  66  82 /  70  70  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for KSZ067-082-083-
091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KRC



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.