Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 071740
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1240 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER HAVE CONTINUED TO TRACK
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SMALL...BUT A BRIEF SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LAST
30 MINUTES AND ARE TRACKING SOUTHEAST.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

HOT AND BREEZY DAY ANTICIPATED...AS WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ANTICIPATE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL HOLD
DEWPOINTS UP A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL PROGS...WHICH SHOULD ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY SKYROCKETING...ALTHOUGH STILL
ANTICIPATING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S...WARMEST OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH THE LOW 100S
FOR MOST AREAS.

STOUT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS BY LATE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN KS AND NE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
STRONG INSTABILITY AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
CONSEQUENTLY...SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL FIRE BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NE. DUE TO FRONTAL FORCING
AND LARGE SUB-CLOUD TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY CONGEAL INTO ONE-TWO THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DURING THE
EVENING...PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
KS...REACHING THE I-70 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO DARK. ALTHOUGH INITIAL
THREATS OVER NEBRASKA WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAIN
THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND DURING THE EVENING OVER
NORTHERN/NORTHEAST KS. GIVEN WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...THINKING OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
I-70...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH. THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTHERN
KS BY LATE TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGES UPON SURGING COLD
FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...BUT THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD. ADDITIONALLY...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW HEAT
BURSTS OVERNIGHT WITH DECAYING CONVECTION AMIDST A PREVIOUSLY
DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS.

POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS FOR TUE-WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S. LINGERING 700-600MB BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY ALLOW A FEW HIT-OR-
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHERN KS. RETURNING 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
FOR INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE WEEK...AS WESTERN RIDGE
BUILDS EASTWARD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD LINGER THURSDAY...AS
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVANCES EAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE. COULD BE LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTERING
BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
DIGGING EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGHING PROGRESSES A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS MID- AMERICA. AN ASSOCIATED POST COLD FRONT COOL DOWN
COULD FOLLOW FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

A BRIEF SHOWER MAY IMPACT KICT AND KCNU FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING BUT A SHOWER WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDER STRIKE. OUTSIDE OF THAT WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE INCLUDED THOSE FOR KHUT/KRSL/KSLN WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
GREATEST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT SOUTH
TO KICT AND KCNU AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AS THE FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  74  89  66 /  20  20  20  20
HUTCHINSON     100  72  88  64 /  20  30  20  10
NEWTON          98  72  87  64 /  20  30  20  10
ELDORADO        97  72  87  64 /  20  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   99  75  90  66 /  10  20  20  30
RUSSELL        101  69  87  63 /  10  40  10  10
GREAT BEND     102  69  87  63 /  10  30  20  10
SALINA         101  71  88  65 /  20  40  20   0
MCPHERSON      100  71  88  64 /  20  30  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     97  74  90  66 /  10  20  20  30
CHANUTE         96  74  87  64 /  20  20  20  10
IOLA            95  73  86  64 /  20  30  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    96  74  89  64 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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