000
FXUS63 KICT 151153
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
653 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Southerly winds will pick up today ahead of a weak cold front.
Moisture transport will also pick up some but it will not be
strong enough to allow dew point temperatures to go higher than
65 across the region. This will be high enough to support some
shower and thunderstorm activity. Forcing will improve today and
tomorrow as the front approaches and will provide the area for
some chances for some much needed rain. Unfortunately, the lack of
focused moisture transport today means rainfall amounts are not
expected to be significant. Temperatures ahead of this front will
remain warm for today and Saturday. While the temperatures will
be well above normal for this time of year, record highs are not
expected.

Saturday afternoon and evening, the front will encroach on the
CWA. Moisture transport is better but still not focused enough to
allow for a wide spread heavy rain event. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected across much of the CWA during Saturday
afternoon and into Sunday. CAPE and shear are high enough for
strong thunderstorms or an isolated severe storm will be possible
Saturday afternoon and evening. Once the front pass Saturday
night and Sunday morning, temperatures will return to more normal
levels.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Long term is difficult as the GFS, GEFS plumes and the ECMWF are
in significant disagreement. The GFS family of models is rather
active and wet while the ECMWF is much drier. Both model families
are completely dependent on the track of Tropical Storm Norma in
the Eastern Pacific. Should the GFS family of models be correct,
which follows the Hurricane Center`s forecast track for Norma, the
region could be in for a much needed series of showers and
thunderstorms through much of next week and temperatures near or
just above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Scattered storms will impact much of central and south central
Kansas this morning before dissipating by mid to late morning.
Windy conditions will follow with south winds of 20-30 knots with
a few higher gusts around 35 knots possible across mainly central
KS. Winds will diminish as we decouple this evening with the
potential for some wind shear returning overnight. The higher
probabilities for storms may remain north and east of our TAF
sites tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    94  71  90  65 /  20  20  30  40
Hutchinson      95  70  90  61 /  20  10  30  30
Newton          93  70  88  62 /  20  20  30  40
ElDorado        92  70  89  64 /  20  20  20  40
Winfield-KWLD   92  71  89  67 /  20  20  20  40
Russell         96  70  87  57 /  20  10  10  30
Great Bend      96  69  89  58 /  20  10  10  30
Salina          96  72  91  61 /  20  20  30  40
McPherson       95  70  90  60 /  20  10  30  40
Coffeyville     89  70  90  69 /  10  10  10  30
Chanute         89  69  88  67 /  10  10  10  40
Iola            89  68  87  66 /  10  10  10  40
Parsons-KPPF    89  70  89  69 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...MWM