000
FXUS63 KICT 261133
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
633 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Lingering cloud cover in the moist tropical plume will gradually
shift to the east early this morning into SW MO, as drier air with
the cold advection works across most of the plains. So expect a
pleasant fall sunny day today with temps actually a little below
normal given the strong cold advection.

Upper low over the northern plains is expected to deepen over the
Great Lakes and slowly drop south over the Ohio Valley for the
beginning of the week. This will lead to upper ridging remaining
across the plains for the Tue through Thu time frame.

Looks like pleasant conditions for Tue with seasonal temps in the
upper 70s. Expect to see some good downslope conditions across
Central KS, which may lead to max temps actually climbing into the
lower 80s for areas west of I-135.

Upper low looks to drop south and actually retrogrades some back
into the Mississippi valley for Wed.  This upper low will help push
a backdoor/secondary cold front south across the region for Wed.
This front will push temps back a little below normal for Wed. Lack
of any moisture underneath the upper ridge will lead to mainly a
wind shift to the north-northeast as the front moves south.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

The upper low continues to spin over the Ohio Valley for
the end of the week.  With the slow movement of the upper low,
expect the ridge of high pressure to linger over most of the
forecast area at least through the end of the week.  this will lead
to seasonal temps and mostly clear skies continuing for Thu-Sat.

Flow looks to become more zonal by the middle of the weekend, which
will lead to low level moisture returning across wrn KS for Sat into
Sun. This could lead to showers and thunderstorms moving back into
western sections of the forecast area by Sat night into Sun. Medium
range models are a little uncertain on the timing of the moisture
return, which could delay the return of showers/thunderstorms until
the end of the weekend.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Light winds and VFR will prevail through the 24-hr period across
the area. Patchy shallow ground fog may reduce visibilities at
KSLN for an hour or so this morning before visibilities improve.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    73  51  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      73  49  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          72  51  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        72  50  78  55 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   72  51  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         75  49  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      75  49  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          74  50  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       73  49  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     73  49  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         71  50  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            71  50  77  54 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    73  49  79  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...MWM