415
FXUS63 KICT 120532
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1232 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms possible this afternoon through
tonight, with continued chances for rain through the middle of next
week.

- A minor cooldown arrives this weekend before a brief warmup to
start next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Water vapor imagery this afternoon indicates a mid/upper shortwave
moving through the Central Plains while a stronger wave begins to
encroach on the Northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is
draped from northeast Kansas to the Oklahoma Panhandle as a second
cold front spans from the Dakotas to the Nebraska Panhandle. A
handful of showers were observed in the pre-frontal zone of the
Kansas boundary as it progressed through the state this morning.
Short-range guidance suggests this will provide forcing for broader
coverage of showers and storms later this afternoon and evening over
southeast Kansas, where better instability and higher PW values
reside. Limited deep-layer shear should largely preclude chances for
large hail, though a few quarter sized hailstones can`t be ruled out
in the strongest storms considering CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg
across the area. Otherwise, the primary threat through the evening
hours will likely remain strong/damaging winds and locally heavy
rainfall.

PRECIPITATION:

Models continue to stall out the front over southeast Kansas tonight
into Saturday, which will provide continued rain chances throughout
the area through the weekend. Limited severe potential is expected
with this activity considering warm mid-level temperatures. Still
appears that southern Kansas will see the best chances for
precipitation through Sunday. Could see a few showers making their
way into central Kansas Saturday, but the main activity should
primarily stay along/south of US-54/400.

Chances for rain will continue through at least the middle of next
week given weak ripples in mid/upper flow. Southeast Kansas appears
to have the best chances for showers and storms through Tuesday
before yet another shortwave brings a cold front into the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will cause rain chances to once
again return to a majority of the region and keep the active pattern
in place through at least Thursday.

TEMPERATURES:

Following today`s heat, the cold front moving through the region
will result in slightly cooler highs this weekend (middle 80s to low
90s) before a brief warmup to start the work week (upper 80s and
upper 90s). A cold front progressing through the area on Tuesday
will bring mid-week high temperatures back to near-normal, with
readings near 90 anticipated to close out the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

VFR conditions generally expected to prevail over the next 24
hours, but can`t rule out an isolated storm impacting a TAF site
over the next day or so.

Currently, showers and storms have cleared southeast Kansas, and
VFR conditions have resumed at KCNU and surrounding points. Eyes
are now monitoring portions of western Kansas and southwest
Nebraska where a couple complexes of thunderstorms could throw a
wrench in the forecast today if they continue to maintain
themselves through the overnight period. The current expectation
is for these thunderstorms to slowly dissipate overnight before
moving into the forecast area, but we will have to monitor
their progression early this morning to see if this pans out.
Should these storms hold together, sites like KRSL and KGBD may
see adverse conditions by daybreak.

Additionally, isolated showers and storms are possible across
southern and southeast Kansas this afternoon. However, the
better chances should be along the KS/OK stateline.

Winds today are expected to be light and generally out of the
north and northeast over the next 24 hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...JC