000
FXUS63 KICT 241118
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
618 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Today-tonight:
Relatively quiet weather with high pressure slowly drifting east.
Only slight increase in temperatures today given little change in
airmass.

Tuesday:
Return flow finally develops in the morning. Both NAM/GFS show
very tight 700MB moisture gradient by midday Tuesday poised just
west of forecast area at 1800 UTC, moving east during the
afternoon. Upper support is limited virtually non-existent with
area near 300MB ridge axis so left forecast dry, but would not be
shocked by a rogue elevated storm. Temperatures will nudge up a
degree or two, with heat indices around 100 area wide.

Tuesday night-Wednesday:
Small precipitation chances start Tuesday night in Central KS and
spread south as next front drops south. NAM is fastest with front,
reaching KICT around 0000 UTC Thursday, GFS near KGBD and the
slowest solution is the ECMWF with the front just northwest of
KRSL. This will likely be more a function of the extent of
precipitation and cold pool strength. Temperatures and heat
indices continue to increase, with highest heat indices around 105
in Southeast KS based on current forecast. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Differences in timing of front play heavily in precipitation
chances beyond Thursday. ECMWF still keeping precipitation
chances going until Friday afternoon near OK border, while GFS
has pushed front south of area around daybreak Thursday.
Differences appear to be attributable to a second minor/weak
shortwave trailing the main shortwave in the eastern US trough by
the ECMWF. Temperatures either way will be cooler with either the
influx of cooler air in the wake of the front or extensive
clouds/precipitation. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Quiet VFR conditions the next 24 hours. May see brief and
transient reduced visibilities through 8 AM this morning over
mainly far southeast KS. Otherwise, FEW-SCT VFR diurnal afternoon
cumulus is expected across the region, most widespread over
eastern KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    97  72  98  76 /   0  10  10  10
Hutchinson      97  72  98  76 /   0  10  10  10
Newton          95  71  97  76 /   0  10  10  10
ElDorado        94  71  96  75 /   0   0  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   97  72  97  76 /  10  10  10  10
Russell         99  72 100  76 /  10  10  10  20
Great Bend      98  71  99  75 /   0  10  10  10
Salina          98  73 100  78 /   0  10  10  20
McPherson       95  71  98  76 /   0  10  10  10
Coffeyville     95  71  96  75 /  10  10   0   0
Chanute         93  70  95  75 /   0   0   0  10
Iola            92  70  95  74 /   0   0  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    94  71  96  75 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...ADK