Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 262109
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TNGT-THU: CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS MO
AT THIS TIME...WITH LOTS OF BLUSTERY COLD ADVECTION FOR MOST OF THE
PLAINS IN ITS WAKE.   THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND SUBSIDENCE
CLEARS OUT MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER.

NOT EXPECTING ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS TONIGHT INTO THU...AS ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE PLAINS REMAINS VERY DRY.

EXPECT A CHILLY START FOR THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO MO.  THU WILL THE BE TRANSITION
DAY...AS NW FLOW BEGINNING TO BECOME MOVE ZONAL BY LATE THU INTO
FRI.  THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS STATES.  THIS GRADUAL WARMUP WILL START OVER WRN KS ON THU
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS IN CENTRAL KS REACHING THE LOW 50S.

FRI-SAT: THE WARMUP WILL REALLY GETS GOING FOR FRI INTO SAT...AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WEST WINDS ALOFT LEAD TO NICE DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS. THIS WARM ADVECTION AND ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH 850H TEMPS
INTO 12-16 DEG C RANGE WITH SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SUN: THE TRICKY DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR SUN MORNING.  THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS SUN....WHICH WILL
PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH IN CENTRAL KS TO PRODUCE
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH TEMPS IN SE KS
POSSIBLY AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 60S BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO FALL IN THE
AFTERNOON.  IT CERTAINLY WILL LEAD TO A BLUSTERY AFTERNOON WITH
FALLING TEMPS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ON
SUN...SO EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THERE ARE SOME
HINTS OF GULF MOISTURE POSSIBLY REACHING SE KS...ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
OR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT.

MON: COLD ADVECTION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...AS THIS COLD AIRMASS PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUE-WED: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY
OUT. WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AS MID LEVEL FLOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE SW...WHICH WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO STREAM BACK INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUE-WED.  THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND SUGGESTS A SLOWLY RETURN TO THE SW FLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN ERN SECTIONS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE SOLE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT NW WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND
25 KTS WILL WHISTLE ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH 35 TO 40 MPH GUSTS
LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N THEN NE AND DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY FROM 26/23Z TO 27/02Z DURING WHICH PERIOD SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AROUND 7 KTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    24  48  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      22  49  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          23  46  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        25  49  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   24  48  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         20  50  29  66 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      22  52  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          22  48  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       22  47  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     25  48  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         23  46  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            23  45  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    22  47  31  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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