Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 152347
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
547 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 147 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Main challenge is wind chills in the frigid airmass the next
couple of nights, then temperature moderation/warming over
residual snow cover Wednesday into Thursday. Strong 1054mb surface
high pressure centered over the northern high Plains will drop
south-southeast across mid-America tonight/Tuesday with a weaker
1044mb high center emerging over eastern Kansas by Tuesday
evening. While a general clearing trend is expected this
evening/tonight, some stratocu may settle south into parts of far
eastern Kansas as the elongated upper trof drops south into the
Lower Missouri Valley. Despite this in combo with brisk north
winds which should keep the low level airmass mixed a bit,
temperatures are still likely to plummet near or slightly below
zero in many areas where snow cover exists. The current Wind Chill
Advisory looks reasonable with coldest readings likely between
midnight to around sunrise. Near record low possible Tuesday at
Russell (-4F 1977) and record cool high at Salina (13F in 1982).
Tuesday night may end up being the coldest night for locations
along/east of the Turnpike with clear skies and light winds in
proximity to the surface ridge.

A warming trend looks to commence on Wednesday in the modified
return southerly low level flow. However after a very cold start,
even a larger diurnal recovery will still see many areas struggle
to climb near or just above freezing. Kansas will be situated in
rather benign northwest flow aloft into Thursday, far removed from
a northern stream trof moving across the Upper Midwest and weaker
southern trof moving over south Texas. While residual snow cover
may impact temperatures a few degrees, expect maxs to climb
several degrees above mid-January climo across central Kansas.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 147 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

After an unseasonably mild start to the weekend, an upper trof is
progged to track eastward from the Southwest CONUS/southern
Rockies into the central/southern Plains by Sunday. While still
many days away, this looks to bring the next chance for
significant precip and perhaps some impactful Winter weather to
at least parts of the area. Stay tuned.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 546 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

VFR expected for the next 24 hours. Diurnally driven strato-cu in
the wake of last nights front will dissipate after sunset. Expect
the gusty north winds to slowly diminish overnight, but still think
winds will remain around 14 kts.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT     1  15   0  32 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      -1  14   0  32 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          -1  13  -1  30 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado         0  14  -1  30 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD    2  16   1  32 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         -3  15   0  35 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      -2  15   1  36 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          -3  14  -1  32 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       -3  13  -2  32 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville      2  15   1  29 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute          0  13  -1  28 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            -2  12  -1  27 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF     1  14   0  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...Ketcham


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.