Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 041146
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
646 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

QUIET DAY EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. NO CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE OTHER THAN FRESHENING UP HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA
TODAY. AFTER A COOL MORNING...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S EAST TO LOW 70S WEST. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...INCHING EASTWARD TOWARD THE PLAINS STATES. STRONG
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MN
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. NAM CAPE IS
RUNNING AROUND 200-400 J/KG...WITH HIGH BASES OF ABOUT 9 KFT IN
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION AROUND 4 AM. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT LIKELIHOOD REMAINS LOW. WILL LEAVE
OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL
MANITOBA. THESE WINDS WILL HELP BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR TO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WHEN HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. DRY AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY AS WELL...BUT FORTUNATELY THE WINDS
WON`T BE TOO STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

BY THURSDAY EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST IN
SOUTHERN MANITOBA NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 50S AND PROVIDING
ONE OF THE WARMEST NIGHTS WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN MANITOBA LOW WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS EAST INTO ONTARIO.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING ALONG THE FRONT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
RIGHT NOW. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE LATE MORNING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER TO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING NEAR THE SD
BORDER AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WEST-CENTRAL MN. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY SURGE INTO THE 80S...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE THE
FASTEST WITH THE FRONT. HAVE FOLLOWED MAINLY AN ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION
FOR TIMING.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST REGION LIFTING
INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING A BIT FARTHER EAST. BEST PCPN CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA AND MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER NORTH. DID
GO WITH SOME PCPN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE...MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/HOPKINS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG


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