Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231445
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
945 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Latest SPC convective outlook has shifted any stronger storm
potential well east of the forecast area so relayed this change on
social media. Otherwise adjusted cloud cover with clearing
spreading across the fa. Also trimmed back on pops based on latest
radar/satellite imagery and high resolution short range model
guidance.

UPDATE Issued at 703 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Tweaked the diurnal temp curve for the morning. Otherwise no other
changes to the current forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough from southern Alta
into western MT with several short waves rotating around the system.
Upper level system remains in the west most of the period but begins
to move out 12z Thu. Upper level ridge over the Great Lakes shifts
east through Tue. Thereafter upper ridge is knocked down with trough
moving across central and eastern Canada. Upper ridge rebuilds over
the Northern Plains Wed with approaching MT/Alta trough.

Showalters are negative over the eastern zones today. Right rear
quadrant of north-south upper level jet remains over the area today
and shifts east tonight. Precip today is expected to shift east
today with the 700 theta-e gradient shifting east. Precipitable
water better than one inch dries out today only to increase back
over an inch by Wed.

Showalters become negative again Tue with cooler air moving in
aloft.

Coupled upper level jet is forecast for Wed. Low level jet will
support another round of rain on Wed/Wed night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Thursday through Sunday...The global models are in good general
agreement on a fairly active pattern through the end of the week and
into the weekend as southwesterly flow aloft continues. Timing of
precip will depend on weak shortwaves moving through the flow, which
none of the models handle well. Thus, will keep the blended POPs
with a chance for showers and thunderstorms much of the period. The
southwesterly flow aloft will also keep temperatures above seasonal
averages throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 703 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Mostly VFR conditions were across the area. Cigs were mostly above 6
thousand ft. Some 35-45 hundred ft cigs were over west central MN.
Expect cigs to remain VFR for today and tonight. Cigs may fall to
the MVFR category in rain or thunder.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Hoppes



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