Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 272122
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
322 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Late this afternoon through Monday)

Issued at 322 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Visibility issues are slowly improving across Minnesota lakes
country. Although a little bit of patchy fog might persist into the
late afternoon, conditions should continue to improve. Therefore,
will be able to cancel most of the Dense Fog Advisory with this
afternoon`s forecast update. Will hang on to southern Beltrami,
Hubbard, and Wadena counties for awhile longer with PKD and BJI
still going back and forth between 1/4 and 1/2 SM.

Low pressure centered near the Colorado/Nebraska border is on track
to deepen and slowly propagate northwards towards the Red River
Valley overnight. Latest global and short term model runs have
slowed down the onset of precipitation crossing into the southern
forecast area just slightly as the column takes awhile to
saturate. Therefore, tried to time PoPs to line up with this
thinking. Precipitation will spread from south to north overnight
and throughout the day on Monday as rain for the majority of the
area. Temperatures along and east of the valley will stay above
freezing tonight and warm into the low to mid 40s on Monday.

Things get a bit trickier across the Devils Lake basin in the
coldest air with temperatures dropping into the upper 20s/low 30s
tonight. Forecast soundings show the column cooling with the
potential for a brief period of some mixed precipitation. However,
the latest runs do cut back on the strength and longevity of the
above ground warm layer so thinking the transition to snow may
happen fairly quickly with not as much of a mix as previously
thought. Either way, have decided to with a Winter Weather
Advisory for this area to encompass any mixed precipitation along
with a couple inches of snow accumulation (most likely highest
across far western Benson county) before changing back over to
rain later on Monday as temperatures warm into the mid to upper
30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)

Issued at 322 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Above freezing air at the sfc to 850 mb will remain over most
areas through Monday night then start to cool slowly Tuesday. Thus
upper level low by Monday night will lose most of its moisture
source as drier air cuts it off the south but do expect areas of
light rain and drizzle. The light rain and drizzle to mix with
light snow or change to light snow from west to east later Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Colder air to flow into the area Wednesday and
all areas should see some light snow. Precipitation amounts
Tuesday into Wednesday around the upper low will be quite light as
moisture source is cut off. Thus no significant snow accumulations
are expected once the cold air does move in with general ideas of
under one inch expected Wednesday. Rest of the week will see the
upper trough move east and the airmass over the area trended a
bit closer to normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)

Issued at 115 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Poor flying conditions expected to continue throughout the period.
Visibility issues in fog will continue to slowly diminish through
the afternoon but IFR/LIFR ceilings will remain. Ceilings around
200-300 ft might improve to around 700-800 ft on and off
throughout the period but general thinking is to remain in the low
end IFR/LIFR category. Rain moving into the area will first
impact KFAR beginning around 02z or so and spread northward
throughout the night. Precipitation should stay rain at all TAF
sites except for KDVL which could see brief periods of mixed
winter types.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ016-017-
     022>024-027-028-030>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lee
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...Lee



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