Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261145
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
645 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Same forecast ideas will hold. Low level boundary/warm air
advection regime remains across the southern FA today and expect
additional forcing from a couple upper waves. Current HRRRx
indicates a very brief break between upper waves...but likely not
enough to provide sufficient heating for the atmosphere to become
unstable enough to support severe storms...although a stronger
storm or two still seems possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

A couple upper waves seen on water vapor imagery will affect the
region today. SFC-midlevel convergence/boundary across the
SE ND will remain mostly stationary or drift south a bit through
the day. Forcing from the first wave will set off isolated/scattered
storms this morning...then a break (late morning/early afternoon)...then
more storms with the second wave (mid-late afternoon). All of this
activity will be confined to SE ND and WC MN. Do not expect
strong storms this morning. A marginal risk for severe storms will
exist with the afternoon activity depending on actual instability
(deep layer forcing is weak). Will provide more details as
confidence increases.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Wednesday-Thursday...High pressure will settle across the region
leading to mostly dry weather and seasonable temperatures. There
will remain a slight chance for thunder across the far southern FA
on Wednesday...dependent on the actual position of the low level
boundary.

Friday-Monday...Models in general agreement this run. Friday
looks to be tranquil as sfc high pressure remains in
control...with light winds and pleasant conditions. For Saturday
thru the end of the period...sfc high pressure retreats with
return flow bringing warmer air to the region. Corresponding upper
ridge amplification indicative of return to much warmer
temps...with highs looking to rise into the upper 80s and low 90s.
Showers or storms can not be ruled out through Monday...as a
series of impulses propagate through the flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

VFR conditions through the period. Main hazard will be potential
thunderstorms. Majority of activity expected to be south of
KFAR...but did include VCTS for KFAR during most probable periods.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/Hopkins
AVIATION...TG



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