Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 240902
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
402 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WY AND CO WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO SPLIT. ONE
TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ND WHILE THE OTHER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

ALSO TWO SURFACE LOWS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF MT AND CO
AND TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TWO PRESSURE
SYSTEMS COMBINE OVER QUEBEC BY WED NIGHT. STRONGER MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO OCCUR WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM.

OPEN WAVE OVER WY FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE NORTHERN STREAM
WHILE SOUTHERN SYSTEM REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE. UPPER WAVE OPENS UP
AFTER WED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LESS WITH THIS RUN WITH ONE TO
THREE INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. LESS SNOW
ELSEWHERE. THEREAFTER THE UPSTREAM UPPER AIR PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND
WILL SEND COOLER AIR OUT OF CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY...BUT QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY. A WEAK WAVE WITHIN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
SPREAD SNOW CHANCES INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR VERY MINOR. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGES BY
SATURDAY DUE TO A STRONGER SYSTEM PROPAGATING ACROSS CANADA. IN
REALITY...THE MODELS ARE NOT THAT FAR APART SAT/SAT NIGHT...JUST
MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STRONG SYSTEM THAT MAKES
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SHOWERS (GFS/GEM) AND DRY (ECMWF). AFTER
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...VALUES SHOULD BE MORE TOWARD NORMAL
OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

FEEL MVFR/ISOLD IFR CIGS TO HOLD OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST
BREAKS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE VALLEY DURING THE DAY. PCPN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM VALLEY WEST.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...VOELKER



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