Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 260450
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1150 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

As main upper level shortwave has moved well north into southern
Manitoba this evening another short wave rounding around the main
upper low in northern montana is moving through the srn RRV. area
of storms with this feature moved from south central ND into the
southern RRV and is now weakening. Remaining showers and a few
t-storms will move toward Bemidji overnight. Surface low is btwn
GFK and TVF with west to northwest winds on the backside of the
low bringing down low clouds. will leave sct RW- across the rest
of the fcst area as a few remain west of DVL and could move east
into NE ND overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Main forecast challenge will be focusing on convective potential
thru this evening. As of mid afternoon, a surface low was located
over far southeast ND, surrounded by 60 dew points. Water vapor
imagery showed a nice short wave lifting northward through the
central Red River Valley. SPC meso page showed little or no bulk
shear in that area and relatively weak CAPE due to the lack of
heating today. However the non supercell tornado product
highlighted the area right around the sfc low, meaning if some of
the cells down there could take off they could produce some weak
funnels. However it seems like the stronger cells are a little
further south. They seem to be along a warm front, which extends
from the sfc low, down toward KAXN. This area managed to get some
temperatures up around 80 today and therefore a little more CAPE.
However these cells are moving NE and away from the richer CAPE.

A third area of development is back west of KBIS. There is some
sfc convergence there, with weak CAPE and a little better shear.
Most of the high resolution short term guidance shows the tstms
out over the FA now continuing to lift NE and staying on the weak
side. The storms back west of KBIS try to move eastward tonight
but should also weaken with loss of heating. Therefore with time
tonight most of the pcpn should move into southern Canada with the
echoes out by KBIS moving into the FA by early evening. Marginal
risk area is out of the FA on Day 2...with synoptic scale models
showing most of the FA staying dry. Areas along the Canadian
border may still see a little pcpn.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Looking ahead into Friday and Saturday, blocking to the east will
result in either SW flow or a southerly flow. This will keep some
pcpn chances in the area, mainly during peak heating hours. Hard
to nail things down much more than that.

For Sat Night through Wed...An upper low will be departing the
area early over the weekend, making showers and/or thunderstorms
likely in the far east Saturday night. Models showing a short wave
ridge move through Sun into Mon and we should see a break in
activity but zonal flow will keep a series of weak waves coming
across the Northern Tier, so low POPs will be throughout the Sun-
Mon timeframe. SW flow aloft returns by Tuesday, with low pressure
over western ND brining increased chances of convection for the
middle portion of the week. Overall an active period will continue
through the long term, however temps will drop back into the low
70s mid next week after a warm Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

It is looking like areas along and north of Highway 2 will be
prone to IFR to MVFR cigs into 18z Thursday as low level moisture
wraps back around the sfc low to our north. The southern edge
could be ragged and thus could see variable sky cover at
DVL/GFK/TVF/BJI into Thursday 18z but for the most part expect
IFR/low end MVFR. some clearing or lifting of the cloud ceilings
should occur at TAF sites after 18z Thu. Fargo may well stay VFR
thru 06z Fri as low level moisture stays to its north. Winds will
become or turn westerly and remain that way into Thursday mostly 5
to 15 kts.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Speicher
AVIATION...Riddle


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