Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 240326
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
926 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BAND OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING BEFORE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW FREEZING PRECIP SHIFTING EAST
SOUTH EAST. ADDED ANOTHER 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES SOUTH TO THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ADVISORY IN THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY MON
MORNING.

DECREASED TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR MON MORNING AND INCREASED
TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO IN THE FAR EAST. TWEAKED WINDS DOWN A BIT
OVERNIGHT TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WIND ADVISORY STILL
IN EFFECT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER MO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY
TONIGHT. WIND WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE LIKELY
EASTERN ZONES. PUSHED BACK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AFTER 9 PM AS WINDS
HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH SO FAR.

ALSO ROADS WERE ICING UP OVER NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN.
RADAR/SURFACE OBS INDICATED FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING FROM
GRIGGS, TRAILL, AND STEELE COUNTIES NORTHWARD. LIGHT SNOW HAVE MOVED
INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING MORE AND MORE REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY
ROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. 700MB-500MB DRY LAYER ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...SO EXPECT A SWITCH TO -SN
EVENTUALLY (I.E. THE PROBABILITY FOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST). ALSO DELAYED THE START OF THE
WIND ADVISORY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN/PCPN TYPE AND WINDS TONIGHT AND
THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAD FALLEN TO 19F AT LANGDON AND CANDO BUT WERE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FROM KGFK-KFAR AND EASTWARD INTO MN. GETTING A FEW
REPORTS OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SO WILL ADD A FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST
BELT OF SFC WINDS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
GUSTS ARE UP IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50KT. LOOKING UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FA NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN CRITERIA YET. WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DARKNESS APPROACHING AS WELL AS NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL ABOUT MEETING CRITERIA HERE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE CLOSE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO CHANGE CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES JUST
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MAY PICK
UP A DUSTING AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLSN. WINDS STAY UP INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM AS THEY MATCH CONTINUITY
OF 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. CLIPPER SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE WED NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIOD IN DROPPING COLD DOME SOUTHWARD AND CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925 MB WILL HANG FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH OR SOUTH AT TIMES BUT PROVIDE A LIKELY TRACK FOR DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  ONCE SUCH DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON
SNOW COVER AND IF WE GAIN SNOWCOVER THIS WEEK BLENDED MODEL TEMPS
WILL BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MOSTLY IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME VFR
CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH SNOW FALLING LATER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WINDS. MAY BE PROBLEM FOR MON ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
ZONES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ039-053.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ002-003-005-
     006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES



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