000
FXUS63 KFGF 210437
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1137 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Lingered some sprinkles across the far south for a few more hours.
Most of the observation sites in that area are showing the echoes
coming out of mid level clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Region to remain in broad cyclonic flow through the short term. In
the near term weak returns continue across the southern tier
counties weakening as they propagate east. Cigs remain in the mid
levels so will keep some isold pops the remainder of the afternoon
then dry. Have left the overnight hours dry so later shifts will
have to monitor late night pcpn trends associated with next wave.
With drier column will see minimums on the lower side of the 50s.

The next wave impacts the region Monday. Feature looks weak and
not a great deal of instability along and ahead of surface
boundary. High resolution model guidance spotty with pcpn with
fropa so left low chance pops going. Unfortunately clouds may
impact viewing the eclipse, especially across the north so will
have to monitor. Cloud cover will also have an impact on
temperatures so will keep highs generally in the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Other than a few lingering showers Monday evening as an upper wave
departs, dry and quiet weather will prevail across the region for
the midweek period as upper ridging and associated surface high
pressure build in.

Models are in decent agreement moving the upper ridge eastward and
out of the area by Friday afternoon. They do differ, however, on the
specifics of the timing and location of any forcing mechanisms
providing the return of precipitation chances. Regardless, the tail
end of the work week and through the weekend look to be more active
than earlier in the week.

Slightly below normal temperatures to continue through the period
with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Ceilings continue to look either mid or high level throughout the
entire TAF period. Main question will be whether or not any pcpn
associated with the next boundary affects any of the TAF sites.
Models continue to depict pretty spotty pcpn with this next
boundary, so for now kept continuity with the 00Z set of TAFs,
only showing VCSH at KDVL and KGFK. Looks like limited instability
again, so although there could be some rumbles of thunder by
afternoon, not confident there will be much. Overall winds look
to remain on the lighter side again. KDVL may see some steadier
northwest winds behind the boundary by afternoon/early evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...Godon