Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230111
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
711 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 709 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Lingering light snow will exit the southeastern forecast area by
03z. Otherwise drier air at 850 mb moving south clearing out some
of the stratocu into the nrn RRV and NW Minnesota and this trend
will continue. Fog potential looks limited attm as do expect some
drier air to move in with the north winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Water vapor loop indicated a short wave over southeast ND with a
jet on the south side or over SD. Visible satellite loop
indicated clearing over north central ND. So expect some clearing
overnight mainly northern valley. Radar indicated rain and snow
over the southern zones mainly south of a line from Kelliher MN to
Valley City ND. Precip was moving to the east southeast at 15 to
20 knots. Precip should move out of the area this evening.
Precipitable water decreases overnight. Little change to temps
for tonight and Thu.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

On Thursday night through Friday, a strong Colorado Low brings heavy
snow across the Central Plains. Fortunately, a majority of the
operational models agree that this system will bring less than an
inch of snow, if any, across the far southern Red River Valley and
adjacent portions of west central Minnesota. If any snow showers do
develop, gusty north winds will likely reduce visibility in these
areas. Additionally, with temperatures falling through Saturday,
gusty north winds will bring wind chills as low as the single digits
below zero on both Friday and Saturday mornings. Temperatures will
bottom out Saturday morning with lows in the single digits to middle
teens.

Over the weekend, temperatures will be near normal values for
February with highs in the 20s to lower 30s. With a few shortwave
disturbances passing through aloft, could see some light snow
showers or flurries throughout the weekend, but little impact is
expected.

Looking into the middle of next week, several models indicate strong
Colorado Low moving through the Plains. While confidence is low in
this system`s track at this time, blended model guidance does
indicate better chances of measurable precipitation over the
forecast area so will stick with this for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 709 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Drier airmass moving south with the north wind tonight into
Thursday will lead to a mainly VFR cloud deck in the nrn RRV and
NW MN. How far west and south this drier air advances and clears
out the MVFR cigs is questionable, thus Fargo, DVL may remain in
some MVFR cigs into Thursday. Fog chances look low attm....not
zero...but low so will not mention.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...Riddle



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