000
FXUS63 KFGF 042132
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
332 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE PERIODS AS
ARCTIC AIRMASS DEPARTS THE REGION. TEMP RECOVERY TODAY POOR UNDER
THE COLD POOL OF ARCTIC AIR WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AT TO JUST ABOVE
ZERO SCT TO BKN CU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ALL BUT THE DVL BSN.
SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES POSSIBLE AS A FEW METARS HAVE SOME PERIODIC
REDUCED VSBYS DOWN TO 3SM IN A FEW LOCALES. EXPECT THE SPORADIC
NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES AS POSSIBLY THE LAST OF THE
TRUE WINTERTIME SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE. WINDS
COMBINED WITH LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL TO 10F TO 20F BELOW WILL
LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES OF 25F TO 40F BELOW BY MORNING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. AS THE SOUTHERLY RETURN WINDS SET UP TEMP FALL MAY
STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE ACROSS THE DVL BSN OVERNIGHT.

RETURN FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AS SOUTHWEST 850MB WINDS INCREASE TEMPS FROM
-20C TO -5 TO -10C BY 00Z FRI. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM TEENS IN
THE MN PINES TO 20S IN DVL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...TIMING OF CLIPPER SYSTEM LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST WRT TO POPS AND TEMPS. EC BRINGS THE
WAVE THROUGH THE FA SOONER...DURING THE DAY GIVING MORE CLOUDS AND
EARLIER POPS...THAN THE GFS/NAM WITH THE GEM IN-BETWEEN. EC
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE ALL SNOW AS WARMEST LAYER REMAINS AT THE
SFC WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE 0 TO 5C RANGE BY 00Z SAT. NAM IS
WARMER WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING TO 3C IN E ND BY 00Z SAT.
NONETHELESS KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC POP WITH AN ALL SNOW PTYPE. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER FLOW
WILL TRANSITION MORE ZONAL (ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY NW). THE MAIN
STORY WILL BE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH NOT
SURE ABOUT SNOWMELT ISSUES SUCH AS FOG/CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT FAR OUT PREDICTABILITY IS
QUITE LOW AND THE MODEL BLEND WILL WORK JUST FINE. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE QUITE LOW WITH THE STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

DAYTIME MVFR CU WILL MOVE IN AND OUT OF THE VALLEY SITES THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. WINDS ABOVE 12 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...TG