Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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963
FXUS63 KFGF 300000
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
700 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Some thunderstorms were developing over northeast SD. Storm were
moving to the east southeast. Expect storms to stay south of the
area. Water vapor loop indicated a short wave trough moving east
across the MAN/ND/MN border. Some ridge building was occurring over
eastern SD with short wave over eastern CO. Tweaked temps,
dewpoints, pops and wind for the evening.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

cold front through all but far southeastern fcst area at 20z.
Nothing has formed along it yet though starting to see a few
building TCU on visble sat pic from nr Longville in Cass county MN
into central Ottertail county. West wind at Fergus Falls at 20z
and southwest wind at Wadena. So likely only 2 hours or so of time
left before any chance exits our area. Drier air working in slowly
but surely form the northwest. This drier airmass will be over our
area tonight into Tuesday with much calmer weather. Soundings show
limited moisture avbl for cumulus Tuesday and upstream shows clear
sky in Saskatchewan and western Manitoba under high so full sun on
Tuesday. Temps a few degrees cooler than today but mainly because
starting out a bit cooler in the morning. I did go with patchy fog
overnight in far southeastern fcst area to match neighboring wfos
and this area will see the drier air the latest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

High pressure ridge to drift over the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday with dry weather. Some warm advection mid level clouds
over wrn or cntrl ND late Tues night or Wednesday but think any
precip chance will stay west of our fcst area. A bit warmer on
Thursday as flow becomes southerly.

Thursday night through Monday...

Main challenge through the long term will be the return of
precipitation chances Friday night and lingering throughout the
weekend.

Upper level ridging will remain in place across the central CONUS
throughout the day on Friday. Should be one last nice day with
mostly sunny skies and high temperatures around normal or just
barely above (low 80s valley westward and mid to upper 70s in the
east).

Heading into the weekend, surface low pressure across the northern
Rockies will deepen and begin to propagate towards the Dakotas.
Additionally, an upper trough will be nearing the area with multiple
waves moving around the base of the trough. These features will
allow precipitation chances to linger across the forecast area for
much of the weekend. The GFS continues to be a little faster with
QPF entering western portions of the region by Friday night with the
ECMWF holding off until a cold front moves through on Saturday.
Therefore, highest PoPs of the period (around 50 percent) look like
a good compromise for Saturday afternoon and lingering into Sunday
as the front slowly moves through.

Temperatures through Saturday will be fairly seasonable with highs
right around the 80 degree mark. Following the cold frontal passage,
things will cool down for Sunday (low to mid 70s) and even a little
more on Monday (upper 60s to low 70s).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

A mostly clear sky was across the area. Some widely scattered
clouds between 25 and 35 hundred ft were over the far southern Red
River Valley or south of a line from PKD to Brampton ND. Clouds
should dissipate and shift south this evening. May be some fog in
the east/southeast overnight. Otherwise expect VFR conditions for
tonight and Tue.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hoppes
SHORT TERM...riddle
LONG TERM...riddle/lee
AVIATION...Hoppes



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