000
FXUS63 KFGF 310941
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
341 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE RETURN OF COLDER AIR AND
LOW END SNOW CHANCES.

A MARKED CHANGE FROM TEMPS YESTERDAY IS UNDERWAY WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A 1045 MB SFC
HIGH THAT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR TOMORROW. WITH
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH
THE DAY...ALTHOUGH HOW FAST TEMPS FALL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25
KTS...EFFECTIVE MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY MAV GUIDANCE AT GRAND FORKS/FARGO IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. COMBINED WITH THE
FALLING TEMPS...IT WILL BE QUITE THE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. IT
STILL APPEARS THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SKIRT PARTS
OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO FAR SE ND/WC MN LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. WITH DRY NNE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO FULLY SATURATE
THE DRY LOW- LEVEL LAYER. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FAVORS
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA FOR ANY PRECIP THOUGH...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS AREA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT MORE
THAN AN INCH...ON THE HIGH END.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT CONCERNING TEMPS WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THE SFC
HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -20C IN
THE NORTH BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CLEARING WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT THOUGH. THUS...KEPT THE COLDEST LOW TEMPS UP
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH WARMER READINGS FARTHER
SOUTH. THESE TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER...THOUGH. WITH WINDS REMAINING AT LEAST IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE...WIND CHILLS MAY BE AN ISSUE...AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIND CHILLS BELOW -25F WILL BE ALONG OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 2. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY NIGHT OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE VERY
COLD...WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD. DID CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW COVER.
WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH
BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY WITH
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO
OCCUR OVER NW MN...AND HAVE THE COLDEST LOWS IN THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...A QUICK DROP-OFF MAY OCCUR AREA-WIDE DURING THE EVENING
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AHEAD OF A
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DID INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR SE ND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS VERY WEAK.

FOR TUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...A WEAK CLIPPER WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WED/THU TIMEFRAME. THERE
WILL BE SOME MODERATING TEMPS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS
WE HEAD TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND POSSIBLY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FRIDAY DRY
THOUGH WITH TIMING ISSUES THIS FAR OUT. NO MAJOR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH AS THE GENERAL W/NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA...ALTHOUGH KGFK AND
KTVF HAVE BRIEFLY GONE UP TO VFR. THINK THIS WILL FILL BACK IN AS
THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH SOME CLEARING IN THE WINNIPEG AREA TO SEE HOW FAR SOUTH IT
MOVES BUT FOR NOW THINK WE WILL STAY MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKING UP OF STRATUS BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BE MOVING IN AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH WESTERN ND.
WILL KEEP VFR CIGS IN THE 4000-7000 FT RANGE BUT EVENTUALLY
LOWERED CIGS A BIT AT KDVL AND KFAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SNOW BAND. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR