Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 182321
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
621 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Freshened up the forecast grids based on latest trends. Red Flag
Warning and Wind Advisory go until 7 PM...and looks on track to
expire at that time. RFW was expanded slightly in the southeast
to include Becker and Hubbard counties with an earlier update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Temperatures will be the main issue for the period.

Westerly flow aloft tonight behind the shortwave trough currently
moving through southern Canada. This afternoon has been very dry
and windy behind the cold front that the shortwave has pushed
through. Mixing down from 800mb or so has allowed dew points to
drop into the teens to near near 10 F. Winds have gusted to 40 mph,
mainly across the northern CWA. Winds should start to come down
this evening after we lose daytime heating and dew points will
come up as mixing decreases. Will let the wind advisory expire at
00Z. The winds will become light and variable late tonight, and
with dry dew points the temps should fall off fairly quickly.
However, this will be offset somewhat as warm air advection kicks
in across the area. Will keep lows in the mid to upper 30s with
some low 40s possible.

Thursday will be very quiet with weak upper ridging moving into
the upper midwest. Winds will be back to the south as a surface
trough develops over eastern MT. Winds will increase again but not
nearly as high as today. With warm air advection and full sun
think we will get well into the upper 60s and 70s, with highest
values in the west where the winds will be more southwesterly.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Warmer air moves in for Thursday and Friday as an upper ridge builds
through the Northern and Central Plains and southerly low level flow
returns. With relatively drier air persisting through Thursday and
strong warm air advection Friday, expect more days of near record
high temperatures to finish out the work week. Friday will be
another particularly breezy day with strong 850-700 mb south winds
mixing down and gusts peaking at 30 to 40 mph.

For Friday night into Saturday, breezy conditions continue as a cold
front moves quickly through the forecast area from west to east.
This brings small chances for showers, with the better chances being
for northwest and west central MN. Depending on the timing of the
front, could have some rumbles of thunder on the Minnesota side
Saturday but chances are low at this point.

Cool, dry air behind the front will keep highs in the 50s and 60s
for Saturday and Sunday, coinciding with the upper trough moving
through. Slight chances for showers linger Sunday with energy
associated with the trough moving through, but cool breezy
conditions will be the main impact through the weekend.

Early next week, seasonal temperatures as highs in the 50s and lows
in the 30s will return as the main upper trough moves eastward
slowly out of the Plains. With some shortwave energy still in the
area, cannot rule out some precipitation on these days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Winds will decrease this evening between 23 and 03Z and switch to
the south overnight as a ridge of high pressure drifts east
through the region. VFR conditions and somewhat lighter winds are
expected tomorrow (10-16 kts sustained).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Very dry dew points have dropped relative humidity values into the
teens and low 20s, along with strong winds. Will continue to keep
the Red Flag Warning going through the rest of the afternoon.
After sunset, winds should decrease and RH values start to come
up. Plan on continuing the warning through 00Z. Tomorrow will see
slightly higher dew points moving into the area so RH values will
be dry but still above 25 percent. Winds will also be less than
yesterday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-054.

MN...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027-028.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Knutsvig
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...Knutsvig
FIRE WEATHER...JR


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