000
FXUS63 KFGF 052045
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
245 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND CHILL VALUES. THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON SATURDAY...SO NO CHANGES ARE
NEEDED FOR THIS PRODUCT. THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS DURING THE DAY
WHERE VALUES ARE ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS
SIMPLE.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL
TRICKLE INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE OVER DOING MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVER...BUT GIVEN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME CLEARING (EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER).
MIXING WILL CONTINUE...AND GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE MAP WITH MAX
AND MIN TEMPS. WILL FORECAST SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE...WHICH
APPEARS A SAFE BET GIVEN TODAYS TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS TO CHANGE A
LITTLE BIT...AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SUNDAY SHOULD
BE A BIT WARMER. 12Z MODELS INDICATE LIGHT QPF ON SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT UPPER TROUGH...AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS
(MAYBE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE). WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER
LOOK AT WIND CHILLS AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ON LATER SHIFTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT...ALLOWING CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF PRECIP
IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN. ONCE THE SUN/SUN NIGHT SYSTEM
PULLS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A SHARP UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH...NW FLOW WILL BRING DAYTIME TEMPS BACK BELOW ZERO FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAK CLIPPER MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WHILE
MODELED QPF IS WEAK...12Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THAN THE 12Z RUN
YESTERDAY AND CONSALL IS NOW SHOWING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GFS TRACK IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND QPF CONTINUITY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 15 TO
20 BELOW RANGE...WHICH INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE TO BE MUCH WARMER...ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT. THE MID TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY BUT A
WARMING TREND WILL BRING MORE MILD TEMPS TO THE AREA BY THE WEEKS
END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

AVIATION CHALLENGE WILL BE MVFR CIGS COMING DOWN OUT OF MANITOBA
AND ANY REMAINING AREAS OF BLSN. FOR MOST PART...HAVE NOT SEEN
ENOUGH REPORTS OF BLSN AT TAF SITES AND WILL REMOVE MENTION EXCEPT
AT BJI. MVFR CIG DECK WILL LIKELY IMPACT TVF/GFK/BJI AREA BUT FAR
WILL STAY CLEAR. A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN WITH DVL AS THERE ARE SOME
LOWER CIGS AT MOT. WILL INCLUDE LATER IN THE AFTN. ONCE THEY ARE
HERE I DO NOT SEE SKIES CLEARING OUT EXCEPT DVL...WHICH WILL BE ON
WRN EDGE. NOTE TVF CEILOMETER IS OUT OF SVC AND AMDS WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO WINDS AND VIS ONLY ONCE THE CLOUDS ARE OVERHEAD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-
     027-029-030-040.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SATURDAY
     FOR MNZ005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-028-031-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER