000
FXUS63 KFGF 020343
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
943 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

TWEEKED TEMPS A BIT. AS EXPECTED AREAS THAT PIT OUT AND WINDS GO
CALM ARE DROPPING QUICKLY...SUCH AS FOSSTON. BUT THAT IS THE
EXCEPTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FCST ON TRACK. STRATO CU ASSOC WITH 500 MB TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
THRU CNTRL MN WITH CLEARING IN ERN ND/NW MN. EXPECT CONTINUED
CLEARING OR DISSIPATING CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE STRONG COLD FRONT MON
NIGHT/TUE...POTENTIAL BLOWING SNOW ISSUES AND ACCUMULATING SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTH. MODEL ARE STILL IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. FOR NOW
WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS THAT IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH SNOW SINCE
THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT QUICK. TIMING IS EVERYTHING
WITH SYSTEM THOUGH...SO STAY TUNED.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE EAST.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD
FALL AND BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS LOWS.

ON MONDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH ABOUT 35KT
TO MIX FROM 900MB BY 21Z. WE COULD BE CLOSE TO A WIND ADVISORY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
POSSIBLE. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
20S FOR ALL AREAS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WITH
MOISTURE GETTING FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY MORNING. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE IN THE NW WITH THE FRONT GETTING CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHERN FA LATE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

ON TUESDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL BE ONGOING BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME BLOWING SNOW WHERE
THERE IS ACCUMULATING SNOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW ALONG THE FRONT...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SOME BLOWING
SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD BE SUSTAINED
AROUND 30 MPH IN THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
FALL FOR MOST AREAS WITH STRONG CAA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN AREA
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATES UP TO 2 INCHES OR
PERHAPS A BIT MORE...AND WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT. WE
WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT FOR TUE.

FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...IT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS FROM 25 TO 40 BELOW TUE NIGHT INTO WED. TEMPS SHOULD
STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE 0 ON WED GIVEN EARLY
MARCH SUNSHINE...AND IT WILL BE DRY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS TO LIFT E ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBOUNDING...INCREASING
THICKNESS VALUES AND SW FLOW AT THE SFC BEHIND THE RIDGE...TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO RISE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SFC
TROF IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
COOLING AND LITTLE PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR THRU 00Z TUES. LINGERING STRATOCU (HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR
CIG) IN WCNTRL MN WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WIND TURNING MORE WEST
AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST IN ERN ND LATE TONIGHT...NEAR OR
JUST UNDER 10KTS. MAIN ISSUE MONDAY WILL BE WIND AS SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE BY 18Z AND GETS WINDY IN THE AFTN WITH 160-180 DIRECTION
WINDS 20 TO 35 KTS IN THE RRV AND SLIGHTLY LESS IN DVL BASIN AND
LESS IN THE MN TREES. SOME MID CLOUD INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTN IN
SE ND.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE