000
FXUS63 KFGF 222329
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
629 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Only changes were some minor pop modifications as band of SCT shra
drop through the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Forecast working out as expected. Upper level low circulation via
water vapor over Lake of the Woods at 20z. Rain associated with
this feature north and west of it and this rain will drop south as
the upper low drops south tonight. Highlighted main rain chances
late aftn north spreading south and east thru the evening. Tuesday
will see the upper level low/trough dropping further south with
the cold pool aloft over southeastern ND and west central/central
MN as warmer air aloft and upper level ridging begin to move into
DVL region. Thus better risk of showers Tuesday is over the
southeastern fcst area and it is expected to be scattered in
nature. Cool in the southeastern fcst area with clouds while DVL
region will be milder with aftn sun.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Clearing will work southeast thru the area Tuesday night as high
pressure moves in. The high will move south of our area Wednesday
with an increasing south-southeast wind developing Wednesday ahead
of next front which will move into central ND by 12z Thursday and
then begin to wash out as it moves east into the RRV Thursday
aftn. Risk of showers with this front, esp northern RRV/DVL
region.

Thursday night through Saturday...There is decent model consensus on
an upper low moving across southern Canada with troughing over the
Northern Plains during the later part of the work week. The upper
low starts to dig southward a bit on Saturday. The surface trough
axis will be moving across the eastern counties Thursday night and
best shower chances will be in that area. After the trough axis
moves through most showers will be closer to the center of the upper
low so kept low POPs mostly in the north. Temps will be near
or just slightly below seasonal averages.

Sunday and Monday...Deterministic model solutions start to diverge
on Sunday with the ECWMF more progressive and moving the upper
trough off the the east while the GFS is slower. Both have some
spotty precip chances as weak shortwaves dig down so will keep
very low POPs going.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Overall VFR conditions expected through the evening with patchy
mvfr cigs under stronger shra. Later tonight guidance wants to
bring in more widespread lower cigs however looking upstream did
not go as low as guidance but will monitor.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Riddle/JR
AVIATION...Voelker