Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261133

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
633 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

The low clouds mentioned earlier continue to lift slowly
northward, and now encompass most of the area except the Devils
Lake region into the northern Red River Valley. Seeing a little
more fog now too, especially west of the Red River Valley. Valley
City and Cooperstown have dropped to a quarter mile, so went ahead
and issued a dense fog advisory for that area through mid morning.
Models continue to show the clouds holding in for most of the day,
but will just have to keep an eye on trends and adjust if need be.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Cloud trends and fog remain the primary forecast challenges. As of
3 AM this morning, clouds covered most of the FA, but low clouds
will be the bigger story. These low clouds started out across the
southern Red River Valley into west central Minnesota, and they
have since expanded to all areas south of a line from Cooperstown
to Grand Forks North Dakota over toward the Upper and Lower Red
Lakes in Minnesota. These will continue to expand northward
through sunrise. There is also some fog, with patches around
Crookston and Thief River Falls, and more from Gwinner to
Cooperstown. With the cloud cover, not expecting this fog to get
dense, but it could expand to other areas too. Like yesterday,
these clouds held for much of the day and therefore limited the
temperature rise. Today, the clouds could be even thicker and last
longer. Therefore after coordinating with adjacent offices,
lowered high temperatures. This may not even be enough if the
clouds hold all day. The surface wind flow remains very weak today
into tonight, so will likely be dealing with the same issues
throughout. However, they will help to hold up temperatures

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Same story continues Monday through Tuesday night, in regard to
the weak surface flow. This will make forecasting day to day
cloud trends difficult. Will need sun to hit the expected highs,
which may not be easy to figure out more than day to day. Despite
the cloud and temperature issues, not expecting any pcpn.

Split flow will continue over the CONUS with several shortwaves
flanking a short wave ridge in the northern stream. The first of
these will affect the forecast area Wed with the standard early
morning mixed pcpn followed by rain. The ridging should provide dry
and rather mild weather for Thu into Fri. Meanwhile a pair of closed
lows will trek more slowly through the southern stream. There are
signs the second of these will lift a bit farther north creating
pcpn chances in tandem with the northern short wave for Sat. As
mentioned, temps will continue to be warm for late March with
perhaps a bit of a cool down for the end of the period with approach
and passage of a cold front.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

With the light surface winds, not anticipating much to be able to
break up the low clouds or fog. Therefore, what you see is what
you get at least thru the rest of the morning. Maybe by afternoon
ceilings will rise some, and maybe even into the low end of VFR
criteria. However, it is also possible that ceilings will not
change much at all through the day. Will just have to monitor
ceilings and vsbys and adjust as things change. Winds look to
remain light for the full TAF duration, so even if ceilings rise
some today, they may fall again tonight with more fog formation.


ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NDZ028-038.



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