Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 211159
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
659 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 658 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Light rain has moved into the northern half of the area. Tweaked
pops to match radar trends for the morning. Otherwise no other
changes made at this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Friday night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Split flow will develop across North America. By 12Z Sat northern
stream will be over Canada and southern stream will be over the
states. Upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest will move
into the High Plains of WY/MT, deepen, and take on a negative tilt
by the end of the period. Upper level ridge over western Canada
will also amplify and move into central Canada by 12Z Sat.
Water vapor loop indicated another upper level trough over northern
SASK. The SASK trough will move through southeast Canada and send
drier air into the northeast zones Thu and Thu night.

High pressure over southern SASK and southern ALTA will produce
a dry low level flow out of the northeast through 12Z Fri.
Concurrently some mid level frontogenesis and mid level moisture
will produce light showers/sprinkles over the north/northwest zones
for this morning as rain falls into drier underneath.

Thereafter return flow will bring higher moisture and higher
precipitable waters. Precipitable water rises to over an inch and a
half by Fri/Fri night with the approach of a more significant upper
trough.

The surface high pressure system over SASK/ALTA will move into
northern MAN by 12Z Sat. An upper level trough over southern CA will
move into IA and southern MN for Wed night. Low level jet forecast to
remain south and east of the forecast area for Wed night. However
some low level moisture will move north for Wed afternoon/Wed night
into the southeast zones. Will keep low pops for the southeast zones
for this afternoon and Wed night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

The Saturday through Tuesday weather continues to revolve around
placement and strength upper low expected to pinwheel across the
northern plains. Temperatures will generally be seasonal with highs
in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Saturday could be a touch warmer if
dry slot of the upper low allows for more sun with low 70s expected.
As for pcpn placement will depend on track of the upper low and SFC
low...current 00Z runs of the GFS/GEFS and EC are similar in their
solns with the placement of the upper low through Sunday morning.
Then the GFS/GEFS begins to shift the upper low to the east where as
the EC shears it out and lifts most of the energy to the north.
Placement of the wraparound band of rain and duration to be
determined by these possible scenarios. Nonetheless by Saturday
PWats of 1 to 1.5 inches are 3 to 4 times above the standard
deviation for the end of September. Good chances for an inch or more
continue to be across the northern valley and the Devils Lake basin
with a bit less more probable across the southern valley.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

VFR conditions were across the area. Cigs under the rain in the
north was still around 8 to 9 thousand ft. Fog loop indicated 5 to 6
thousand ft cloud cigs were developing over central MN. The MN
clouds deck is forecast to move into the south/southeast zones today
and tonight. Could have some MVFR cigs over the far southern zones
after midnight. Otherwise VFR conditions expected for today and
tonight except in the far south.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hoppes
SHORT TERM...Hopkins
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...Hoppes



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