Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 210235
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SO FAR ALL THE PCPN HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
OVER CENTRAL ND. THERE ARE NO ACTIVE WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY IN ND AT THIS POINT. THE STRONGER CELLS HAVE BEEN DIVING
DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD. HOWEVER A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD OUR WESTERN FA. EXPECT THESE TO
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ALBEIT VERY SLOWLY. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE ACTIVITY WITH IT. THE SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS THE NOSE OF
THE 35KT LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED DOWN AROUND KFSD WITH WEAKER SPEEDS
INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE A FEW ELEVATED
ECHOES IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MN BUT NOTHING YET
AT THE SFC. HI RESOLUTION MODELS SEEM TO SHOW THE MAIN ACTIVITY
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET STAYING WELL SOUTH OF THE FA OR ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN TONIGHT. THEY DO DEVELOP SOME SCT ACTIVITY UP INTO
OUR SOUTHERN FA BUT THAT MAY BE ABOUT IT. THE WESTERN ACTIVITY
MAY DECREASE SOME IN COVERAGE TOO AS IT MOVES EAST...AND PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST OR EASTERN FA MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING AT ALL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
MT. TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN ND
TONIGHT AND THU. DEEP THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED EAST OF UPPER
TROUGH FOR TONIGHT AND THU. LOW LEVEL JET TO NOSE INTO EASTERN SD
THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT TO STATES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRI. THEREAFTER LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH ENTRANCE REGION IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTER LATE TONIGHT AND
THU. BULK SHEAR UNDER 35 KNOTS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TO REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ZONES
THU NIGHT...WILL ADD LOW POPS NORTH.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES FRI.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SECOND SHORT WAVE OVER WA/BC BORDER.
THE SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN
ND FRI. WILL HAVE POPS MAINLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT AND SO A
HIGHER THREAT FOR PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UNSETTLED PERIOD AS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIFTS NE
INTO MB REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PCPN PLACEMENT SO TARGETING SPECIFIC
AREAS FOR RAIN DIFFICULT. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK MONDAY BEFORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FA TOWARDS MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

EVOLUTION OF THE PCPN INTO OUR FA TONIGHT SEEMS A TAD SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED. MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT ON WHEN THE ONSET
WILL BE SO KIND OF GOING WITH A BLEND FOR THE TAFS. WILL START OUT
WITH JUST CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION OUT WEST BUT SHOULD SEE
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY LATER IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT
KDVL. KDVL SHOULD ALSO SEE THE PCPN ARRIVE FIRST...THEN PROBABLY
AT KFAR FOLLOWED BY KGFK/KTVF. KBJI MAY NOT SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING
UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. ONCE THE PCPN ROLLS IN IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL STAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF DURATION. KEPT CEILINGS VFR
FOR NOW BUT THEY LIKELY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH
ANY HEAVIER RAIN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON





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