Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 151001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
401 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Surface low pressure just east of the MN arrowhead and high pressure
over Alberta will provide breezy north winds to the area today.
Precip on radar was decreasing in intensity as the precip moves to
the east southeast around 30 knots. No upper level divergence or low
level convergence noted for today or tonight. Precip should continue
to dissipate this morning.  Model soundings indicated the atmosphere
dries out aloft after 21Z. So clouds should decrease from the north

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Friday through Monday...There is agreement between the models in a
somewhat active patter as zonal flow becomes more southwesterly. A
weak shortwave and surface trough axis moving through the area
Friday night will bring a small chance for some light snow across
our MN counties, but most of the precip looks like it will be
further east. A stronger shortwave coming through on Sunday will
produce a better chance for precipitation. There is still some
variation between the models into the exact track of the system, but
at this point somewhere across SD into southern MN looks most
likely. This will put our southern counties in the area of best
deformation so will continue with highest POPs in that area. The
southwesterly flow aloft continues with another shortwave
approaching, so after a brief break there will be more chances for
snow sometime Monday. Track of the low is still in question, but for
now the southern counties seem most likely. Temps will remain below
seasonal averages, slightly less so for Friday and Saturday and
colder for Sunday and Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Southwesterly flow aloft continues, with the
models varying on timing of weak shortwaves coming through. The
ECMWF lingers snow a bit longer than the GFS into Tuesday, so will
continue with some low POPs across our southeast. On Wednesday, the
Canadian is the only solution with some precip while the other
deterministic runs keep us under high pressure. Lowered POPs a bit
for the end of the extended. Temperatures will remain colder than


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Winds are shifting around to the north and increasing, but not
seeing much reduction to vsby yet. Speeds will increase even more
overnight, which may be enough with the light falling snow to
cause some BLSN. Confidence not too high though. Without falling
snow, vsbys by mid Thursday morning should rise again. Winds
decrease by later afternoon.




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