Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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913
FXUS63 KFGF 211435
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
935 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.UPDATE...

Issued at 932 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Only minor tweaks to cloud cover this morning as clearing
continues to push southward as the surface high builds in.
Temperatures continue to look on track at this time but will watch
how things warm up over the course of the morning as areas begin
to see more sun. North winds are still a bit breezy but expected
to decrease throughout the afternoon as the center of the surface
high gets closer to the area.

UPDATE Issued at 654 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Some stratocu moving south thru the fcst area at 11z. This pocket
of moisture will continue to move south as the main 850 mb layer
drying moves in during the rest of the day. Adjusted sky cover a
bit for this for the early morning. Based on current temps in the
single digits in the far northwestern fcst area did go along with
slightly cooler temps today in that region with upper teens for
highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 321 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Area under sfc-925 mb cold advection through most of the day as
high pressure drops south from into southern Manitoba by days end.
Some pockets of stratocu around this morning but clearing out this
aftn/eve. Warm advection high clouds begin to move eastward
overnight Tues night into western fcst area. Highs today will be
20 degrees cooler than Monday, with lows tonight in the single
digits and teens, with coldest temps in NW MN where skies clear
and winds light the longest as high moves over that area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)

Issued at 321 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Wednesday will see a short wave trough moving through with some
lift fueled by 850 mb warm advection. Precipitation in this zone
is likely to be quite limited, with 00z NAM nearly dry and so is
00Z ECMWF vs a bit wetter 00z GFS. So impacts with this system for
our area is quite small. Will spread pops across the area
Wednesday and linger into Wed night for NW MN. Sfc temp and
925-850 mb temp profiles suggest light snow for many with some
rain mix in the south. Sfc temps abv 32F so accumulations minimal.

Main focus on this forecast was Thursday morning. Based on 00z
model data slowed the advance of any chance for precipitation into
far SE ND til more so mid to late morning vs starting at 12z Thu.
Also precipitation appears weaker and weaker. Idea is for light
rain to spread north and east into southeastern half of the fcst
area...maybe up to a tenth in a few spots. Dry over the remaining
snow pack areas of the northern DVL basin. Delaying precipitation
resulted in no freezing rain chance in far SE ND with only some
times for a mix of ra/sn. Suspect will all said and done most
areas just light rain as temp profiles warm enough during the
precipitation fall for liquid.

Friday to Monday...Overall dry period with a split flow above the
northern plains for much of the extended time frame. Good overall
agreement from the ensembles with 500mb storm track to remain south
of the forecast area. Well organized low pressure system to track
across the central plains keeping its northern edge of precipitation
shield along the ND/SD border Friday into Saturday as SFC high
pressure wins out over the FA. Next wave in the active flow
organizes in the same region on Sunday and will bring another round
of rain south of the area to much of the central plains late Sunday
and into Monday. There does appear to be a northern branch of energy
with the Sunday wave that warrants a PoP mention Sunday night into
Monday although precip will be light. Temperatures for the period
will be in the 40s with lows around the freezing mark through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Areas of MVFR cigs around through mid morning, but trend is for
less cloud and then a pretty clear afternoon/evening. North winds
10 to 20 kts diminishing later today.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lee
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...JK/Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle



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