Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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055
FXUS63 KFGF 100546
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1146 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Updated Aviation section below.

UPDATE Issued at 959 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

An upper level jet remains out of the northwest with northwest
flow aloft. Water vapor loop indicated a short wave over southeast
SASK. Some weak returns were occurring over southern MAN and
southern SASK with the short wave. Appears no precip was reaching
the ground. But will add flurries for the western zones overnight.
Increased overnight low by a degree or so except over northern MN
where there was a clear sky.

UPDATE Issued at 700 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Radar indicated weak returns over the far southeast zones.
Precipitation was not reaching the ground. Adjusted winds and sky
for tonight. No other changes at this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Minimal impacts this evening and tonight with northwest flow
aloft. Little change in temperature expected tonight with mostly
cloudy conditions as a weak low passes through Minnesota. A
clipper system will approach on Sunday afternoon with light snow
starting in northeast North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. the
main impacts for this system will be Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Sunday night... As the clipper moves in chances for snow and wind
increase. There is still high confidence in snow occuring across
eastern North Dakota, west central Minnesota, and northwest
Minnesota but a range of possible snowfall amounts exists. Current
GEFS plumes for Grand Forks and Fargo range from one to five
inches but most model guidance is in the one to three inch range.
The better chance for higher snowfall amounts are in northwest
Minnesota with lower amounts expected in eastern North Dakota and
west central Minnesota. Winds will begin to speed up on Sunday
night but the higher winds will mainly be west of the snowfall in
North Dakota. The current snowpack is not very blowable so new
snowfall is needed for blowing snow.

The highly amplified upper level flow regime is expected to continue
through the weekend and into early next week with a longwave trough
over the eastern US and ridge over the western US. Although guidance
suggests that this pattern could break down by mid to late week, the
overall flow pattern over the northern Plains will likely see little
change, holding in a north to northwesterly flow pattern. This will
allow for weak embedded shortwaves to propagate into the region,
bringing light snow chances to the region.

Monday morning will likely be dealing with remnant precip on the
backside of the surface low that is expected to be moving to the
southeast. While snow should be the dominant precip type across much
of the region , a mix of rain/snow is possible south of the I-94
corridor depending on the location of the freezing isotherm at the
surface. Additional snowfall accumulations less than an inch are
possible during the first half of the day Monday. Strong
northwesterly winds during the day Monday may cause a few areas of
blowing and drifting snow.

After a brief break on Tuesday, snow chances return to the forecast
for the rest of the week as weak Canadian clipper lows progress
through the region embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft. Given
the weak synoptic nature of these events, model guidance shows
notable disagreement as to the placement and amount of
precipitation. Overall, light snow chances exist from mid to late
week, but no substantial accumulation or travel impacts are
anticipated.

High temperatures on Monday may occur during the first half of the
day as colder air fills in behind the surface low. Temperatures for
Monday afternoon will likely range from the mid 20s in northwest
Minnesota to the low 30s across southeastern North Dakota. Colder
temperatures are expected for Tuesday with highs in the teens and
20s with overnight lows dropping to the single digits across
northwest and north central Minnesota and low teens in eastern North
Dakota. Temperatures mid week through the end of the week are
expected to warm slightly with afternoon highs in the upper 20s and
low 30s and overnight lows in the upper teens to low 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Changeable sky cover and flight categories thru the period. Areas
of high clouds over E ND into MN at 06z...with stratocu and MVFR
cigs lurking Winnipeg to Roseau to Bemidji. These lower clouds are
expected to work back south and southwest behind the departing
weak low during the overnight into Sunday morning. So that for
most of the daytime Sunday MVFR cigs RRV into NW MN. Light snow
developing in NE ND late in the day and spreading east brief
reducing vsbys at GFK but a longer period of snow at TVF/BJI after
00z Mon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...NC/gg
LONG TERM...NC/AM
AVIATION...Riddle



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