Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271804

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
104 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Issued at 104 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Modified temps downward slightly in far SE ND where clouds have
been persistent. Otherwise, forecast looks on track at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 1005 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

For this update, tweaked precipitation chances across much of the
area. Rain is likely across much of the area tonight. It might not
be a lot of rain on the ND side, but there will be a better chance
for heavier rain on the MN side. Still, with thunderstorms,
precipitation amounts may vary considerably across the region.

UPDATE Issued at 657 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Increased winds for today. No other changes at this update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Upper level ridge axis was located over eastern MT. Upper level
ridge will move across the forecast area this afternoon and
evening. Some warm advection showers can be expected this
afternoon and evening. East-west cross section indicated little
for clouds at low layers.

Upper level low pressure system over eastern OR will move through
the forecast area late tonight and Wed morning. Upper system will
produce thunder. Also cold frontal system will move through on
Wed. Another upper level low pressure system over BC will move
through late Thu into Fri morning for the next round of showers
and thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Friday through Monday Night... There is good agreement from model
solns with the synoptic pattern across the northern plains to end
the week with NW flow aloft. Generally the area will see more clouds
than sun with below normal temperatures and periodic shower chances
Friday and Saturday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. By
Sunday 500mb ridging begins working into the northern plains with
increasing blyr thermal profile allowing temps to return to the
upper 70s and low 80s Sunday and Monday. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms can not be ruled out Sunday and Monday afternoons.
However most locations will be dry for this period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Thunderstorms will be moving into the region this evening and
we`ll also be seeing some ifr cigs in areas late tonight as well.
Recent model runs have been consistent in this low deck following
the thunderstorm activity and lingering into the morning hours
across much of the areas. Low cigs may linger into the afternoon
hours...especially at BJI and TVF.




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