Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 311740
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1240 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

MADE A FEW FURTHER TWEAKS TO POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE A LOT OF AREAS MEASURING BUT IT
IS PROBABLY A GOOD CASE FOR HIGH POP/LOW QPF WITH AT LEAST A FEW
SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE PRECIP IN THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THICK HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COME IN FROM THE WEST...SO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CWA. SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY RADAR RETURNS JUST SOUTH OF
JAMESTOWN...AND ALTHOUGH NO SITES ARE REPORTING PRECIP...IT IS
ALSO MISSING MOST OF THE OBS LOCATIONS. INCLUDED SOME POPS FOR
RANSOM/SARGENT COUNTIES IN CASE WE GET SOMETHING REACHING THE
GROUND BEFORE PRECIP DISSIPATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MOVE OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY TUE. MORE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED AFTER TUE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH AND WILL
RISE TO AROUND AN INCH BY MON AFTERNOON AND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY
WED MORNING. PRECIP FORECAST TO BE IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIP IN EASTERN MT FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO EASTERN ND THIS
AFTERNOON. FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
TODAY. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ND AND WAS MOVING EAST. HOWEVER MODEL CROSS
SECTION INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 600 HPA AND THE
SURFACE. PRECIP EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA MON
AND WILL BRING PRECIP TO SOUTHERN CANADA MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TO MOVE IN ND TUE NIGHT WITH THREAT OF PRECIP PRECEDING
SYSTEM MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE AFTER
MON. WILL MENTION SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

(WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...INDICATING MAINLY ZONAL/SW FLOW
ALOFT. THIS IS TYPICALLY AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THAT SAID...THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH ACTUAL MOISTURE
RETURN (INSTABILITY) AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES. THESE
DETAILS WILL AFFECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY STORMS THAT DO
OCCUR. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN TO REACH KFAR BUT IF IT DOES IT WOULD NOT
BE MUCH ANYWAY. WILL KEEP SCT TO BKN MID CLOUDS AROUND FOR THE
DURATION. WINDS LOOK STEADY FROM THE SE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN
A LITTLE MORE GUSTY BY MID MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...GODON



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.