Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 270859

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
359 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Compact but well defined mid level circulation will propagate
southeast today clipping the Mn international border area this
afternoon. Although feature will be riding over surface high
pressure there is enough cooling aloft for favorable lapse rates
along with minor instability to support some low pops over the far
ne. Warm advection limited to areas along and west of the valley
and while there may be some periodic clouds temperatures should be
able to climb a degree or two above yesterday.

Warm advection continues tonight and sufficient mixing should hold
minimums close to 60 with warmest temperatures across the western

With warmer column in place Friday temperatures should continue a
slow warm up with all areas in the 80s.

Dependent on cloud cover Saturday should see similar temperatures
to Friday.

Rain chances return Saturday night as short wave and associated
surface boundary approach the fa.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Long wave upper level ridge amplifies slightly and retrogrades
slightly over western North America. Long wave trough over the East
Coast amplifies a bit and retrogrades farther east into eastern
North America. Flow associated with long wave trough over northeast
Canada digs more into eastern Canada by the end of the period.

The ECMWF was a faster solution than the GFS then the GFS becomes
the faster solution by the end of the period. The GFS was trending
slower while the ECMWF was trending faster. In later periods, both
models were trending faster. Will blend the models.

Little change to high temperatures for Sun and Tue. High temps were
decreased one to two degrees for Mon and Wed from yesterdays
forecast package.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Expect Fair skies with light northerly winds during the overnight
and into Thursday morning. A weak shortwave trof will dig
southward across northern MN through the day on Thursday and help
to generate a SCT-BKN VFR CU field across most of northwest MN
from 14z /northern MN/ through 23z /central MN/. In eastern ND
expect fair skies and winds beginning to turn from the southeast
in the afternoon.




SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JH/Voelker
AVIATION...Gust is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.