Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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066
FXUS63 KFGF 291733
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1233 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Arc of minor instability/cape extends from the far SW fa across
the far south then NE into the west central Mn lakes country. Have
introduced low pops in this area. Showers over w central Mn
associated with weak surface boundary. With a bit more instability
have mentioned T as ltg strike noted over s central ND. No other
changes.

UPDATE Issued at 927 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Compact mid level circulation over NW Nd will drift SE today.
Feature will be riding over surface high pressure with no real
boundary to interact with. For this feel any development will
remain isolated and weak. There is ACCAS over the SW FA and
lining up with consensus high resolution model guidance for
location of potential light pcpn. Convective temperatures around
77F so limited pops to late morning. Will see if any development
occurs before adjusting afternoon pops. Thunder chances look slim
with limited instability and cape however an isolated rumble
possible.

UPDATE Issued at 700 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

No changes at this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Northwest flow aloft will be over the area through most of the period
with short wave moving through the flow. Upper ridge axis moves
across the area Sun night. Water vapor loop indicated an upper level
short wave was located over northwest ND.

Another upper level trough was located over ALTA. Trough will move
across the area Fri night and Sat morning. Upper level jet will be
south of the area. However a weak low level jet will occur with ALTA
short wave. Moisture increases throughout the column for Fri night.

Next upper trough was off the southern AK coast. Trough will move
into SASK by 12z Mon. Upper level jet will rotate around the south
periphery of the SASK trough. Stronger low level jet will occur Sun
night with approaching trough. Mid level cap sets up over the Plains
or south of us. Expect storms to occur on north periphery of cap Sun
night. Bulk shear remains low until Sun afternoon/night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Monday to Thursday will see a couple rounds of storms possible as an
active period develops with a couple of strong waves move over the
region in WSW 500mb flow. The first round appears to be moving
across the FA early on Monday with frontal passage occuring in the
morning across the valley...not aligning with peak heating. Severe
storm risk in this scenario would be low...if actual fropa occurs at
current progs. Tuesday will be the day between systems as another
wave moves across the Canadian prairies Wednesday bringing the
threat for storms into the western FA by late afternoon and into the
rest of the area by evening. Temps in this time frame will be
seasonally warm with mid to upper 80s and low 90s through Thursday
when temps will fall back into the upper 70s and low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

VFR conditions through the period. Any isold T should remain
mainly south of area TAF sites, diminishing this evening.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...Voelker



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