Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 160322

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
922 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Issued at 922 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

No updates needed at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Patches of stratocu exist at mid afternoon in the southern RRV,
but otherwise got high cloud deck over the area. The high clouds
will gradually clear out of the area this evening. Winds
diminishing but not going calm as they turn to the southwest
tonight. Coldest temp advection occurred this morning and with
some wind holding up unsure how cold it will get tonight. Went in
between the warmest and coldest guidance which shows lows in the
single digits to lower teens below zero. Wind chills -20 to -30F
and for areas with wind chills to -30F a wind chill adv is out
thru 9 am Friday.  This would be NE ND & NW MN.

Warm advection, in the 925-850 mb layer on Friday with ample sun
early will be enough to boost temps into the upper teens to mid
20s. The snow free areas in the far S RRV may get warmer, as some
guidance indicates lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Friday night through Monday... Friday night there is a chance for
some light snow in northwestern Minnesota tied to a low tracking
across southern Canada. Models differ in the amount of moisture with
the ECMWF have little moisture and the GFS keeping most of it to the
east. The NAM and CMC give more moisture and better chances for some
light snow.

The better chance for snow comes Saturday night into Sunday as a
shortwave aloft moves across eastern North Dakota into northwestern
Minnesota. There are two rounds of snow expected with round one
starting late Saturday night/Sunday morning and the other on Monday.
The best chance for snow is expected on Sunday with round one as the
other low and the associated precipitation is farther away to the
south and east. The models are in reasonably good agreement on
timing but have some differences on where and how much snow will
fall. There is good agreement that snow will fall to the south in
the Valley City, Fargo, Fergus Falls, and Park Rapids areas. There
is less agreement in how far north the snow could fall. There is
also some signal in the GFS and NAM for frontogenesis and therefore
heavier banded snow. For round two there is still uncertainty on how
far northwest the snow could come, but the best chances are in the
southeast forecast area near Fergus Falls, Elbow Lake, and Wadena.

Tuesday through Thursday... Some snow may linger into Tuesday but
this vary significantly between models. The CMC moves this out the
fastest, then the GFS, and then ECMWF which keeps the precipitation
the longest. High pressure moves in behind this system and provides
dry weather through Thursday. Temperatures are expected to be near
normal for much of this period with a cold stretch from Sunday night
through Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 617 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Wind speeds will be much less of an issue for the entire TAF
period, only some minor shifting of directions.


ND...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for NDZ006>008-014>016-

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for MNZ001-004>009-



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