Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 150348
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
948 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

The light snow moving into the Devils Lake region and northern Red
River Valley is not that impressive so far. It has been fairly
patchy, and most METAR sites are reporting visibilities in the 3
to 5 mile range. The Cavalier web cam shows a light dusting of
snow has fallen, while the Devils Lake web cam does not show much
at all. As a result, have reduced snow amounts a little through
midnight. Until wind speeds increase after midnight, impacts will
be minimal. Even looking upstream, where wind speeds have
increased, visibilities are still above one mile. Will continue to
keep an eye on trends this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

The warmth today didnt disappoint with 40s for highs from
Wahpeton to Bemidji with mid to upper 30s over NE ND/NW MN. This
will come crashing to a halt as a cold front drops south tonight.
Overall precipitation behind the front is a tad weaker as once
piece of energy and higher snowfall moves east thru parts of S
Manitoba late aftn/early eve and another higher qpf area is in NW
ND. Trend too is for the snow in Manitoba/Saskatchewan to weaken
some in intensity as it drops south into E ND/NW MN overnight/Thu
AM. Based on input from WPC and using blended model qpf/snow
ratios 1-2 inches is the most likely outcome NE ND/NW MN with less
than 1 inch south...least in the far south. Winds will increase
overnight and be strongest in the Thu AM period with gusts 30-35
kts in the RRV. Blowing snow issue is there for the AM commute but
how poor the impacts are is a bit uncertain. Chance we get way
less snow and with many fields bare it would be more dirt vs snow.
Falling temps Thursday with wind chills in the aftn 15 to 30
below.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Gusty winds Thursday evening will lessen bringing an end to blowing
snow potential. As the center of a high pressure moves south of the
region, winds back towards the west but remain breezy. This wind
should prevent maximum radiational cooling despite clear skies from
ridging aloft within a cold air mass Thursday night. However, breezy
winds will combine with overnight temperatures below zero to create
wind chills colder than -20 F possibly warranting hazardous wind
chill headlines into Friday morning. Temperatures quickly rebound
Friday with warm air advection expected ahead of an approaching wave
pushing high temperatures into the teens above zero. The approaching
wave will allow for breezy southwesterly winds to build Friday
afternoon possibly leading to additional patchy blowing/drifting
snow. A weak cold moves through late Friday into early Saturday
bringing a some chance of light snow. Effective mixing and low level
cold air advection behind the front will again harness elevated
winds out of the northwest during the day Saturday.

Upper level troughing begins to form over the western CONUS late
this weekend into next week. This will allow for zonal flow to build
over the Northern Plains around Sunday during its initial transition.
Both ensemble and deterministic guidance suggests a second, stronger
wave embedded within this flow to move out of the Pacific Northwest
into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. This wave will create a
surface low moving west to east across the region providing
snow/precipitation chances and possibly a fluctuation of
temperatures back to briefly above normal. As of now, the low looks
to move through Sunday. Run to run consistency is lacking in terms
of placement of precipitation with a trend to continue pushing
chances further south towards North/South Dakota border. With a
western trough building, this places the CWA under the influence of
southwest flow. Where the trough axis sets up will determine
additional precipitation chances from shortwaves riding within the
flow. This will also determine the temperature trend going into next
week. Thus the forecast reflects an extended period of broad, small
precipitation chances to last through early next week with below
average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Lots of issues to watch for in the TAFs. First of all, clouds will
lower this evening from north to south as the snow begins to
spread in. The steadiest snow should remain at KDVL/KGFK and
possibly KTVF. Then, north winds will kick in, mainly after
midnight, and remain into early Thursday. With falling snow,
these winds will reduce vsbys due to blowing snow. After the snow
ends, there may still be some blowing snow, but vsbys should not
be quite as bad. Improving conditions can be expected by
afternoon.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...CJ
AVIATION...Godon



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