211
FXUS63 KFGF 260001
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
701 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorm chances
  late Friday afternoon into Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Lower level clouds will linger through the evening and overnight
hours with drizzle possible at times overnight. Impacts will
remain limited as instability is nonexistent. Impacts will be
limited to this in the overnight hours.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...Synopsis...

Several weak lead shortwaves will come through the southwesterly
flow aloft tonight into tomorrow night. One such shortwave is
already moving off into MN/WI, having brought our round of light
rain into the southern CWA, and radar returns are weakening as
the upper support moves east. Another vort currently over the
northern Rockies will move into the Eastern Plains/Midwest
tomorrow, and yet another shortwave into the western Dakotas
Thursday night. A stronger upper wave moving into Canada will
help push a surface trough axis into the Dakotas late Friday
into Saturday, and there will be enough instability available
to produce scattered severe storm potential. A few more weak
shortwaves will continue to move through into the weekend,
bringing additional storm chances although much will depend on
how Friday night plays out. By next week, flow shifts to
northwesterly as the upper trough digs into the Great Lakes.
Some reinforcing shortwaves digging down could bring a few light
precipitation chances, but will be a little less active than the
weekend.

...Friday afternoon into Saturday severe chances...

Surface winds will shift back to the south to southeast ahead of
the next trough over the western Dakotas Friday, which will help
bring deep moisture back up into ND. Best surface based
instability will be over central ND along with 40 kts of deep
layer bulk shear. Still think the better chances for discrete
convection will be to our west, with most models showing a
signal for consolidation into an MCS that comes out into eastern
ND and western MN late Friday night into Saturday morning. At
this point, best probabilities for thunder in general and severe
weather in particular are highest in our CWA between 00Z and 12Z
Saturday, but will see how things develop as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

MVFR to IFR ceilings will develop this evening and last through
at least the overnight hours, particularly the further south
you go. DVL and GFK may be able to bypass the MVFR/IFR ceilings
and maintain VFR status until late tomorrow afternoon because of
lowered confidence in how fast lower ceilings push northward.
Winds should remain fairly light and below 15 knots even by
tomorrow afternoon with primarily easterly winds. Drizzle may
arise at some TAF sites in the overnight hours and this should
be the main impact to visibility should visibility drop off.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Perroux