Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 270452
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA WITH
LINGERING BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN FROM FAR SE ND
INTO WCNTRL MN. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST BUT MID CLOUDS MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER TIL LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. CLEAR SKY HOWEVER IN FAR NW MN AND NE ND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NW MN. CALM WINDS PROVIDING SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMATION IN THE BEMIDJI AREA AND ADDED THIS TO GRIDS FOR PARTS OF
NW MN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS A BIT COOLER AS WELL...SO LOWERED A BIT
WITH LOW-MID 40S IN NW MN COOL SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODELS SEEM
TO AGREE ON THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT
AND TIMING. AS FOR NOW...THE SHOWERS HAVE MAINLY MOVED EAST OF
KBIS AND ARE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF OUR WESTERN FA. A TIMING
FEATURE SHOWS THE SHOWERS MOVING AT ABOUT 40 KTS...WHICH MEANS
THEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD AT A PRETTY DECENT CLIP. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT AS MENTIONED...SO KIND OF
LIKE THE LATEST NAM12 SOLUTION. THIS WOULD KEEP THESE SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR...PROBABLY NOT
REACHING UP INTO GRAND FORKS COUNTY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAINFALL
BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
THE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE TIED TO UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY AHEAD OF
A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHWEST ND. BASED ON THE NAM12 TIMING IT
SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN FA AROUND OR AFTER 9 PM OR SO. WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THERE. WAS SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO
IT COULD BE AROUND AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY AT THIS POINT. WED LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH QUITE A
BIT OF SUN AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THU SHOULD ALSO BE ANOTHER GOOD DAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES JUST TO THE
SOUTH/SE OF THE FA. NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN SHOULD ARRIVE LATER THU
NIGHT IN THE FAR NORTH...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
ON FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
AVERAGE FOR SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND PUTTING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BACK INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT LIFTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
THUS...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DURING THESE
PERIODS. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TENDENCY FOR COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ADDED SOME FOG TO BEMIDJI TAF THROUGH 12Z. HOW LOW AND HOW LONG
VSBY WILL BE REDUCED IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AS IDEAL CONDITIONS
FOR GROUND FOG WHICH OFTEN WILL VARY GREATLY IN VSBY. ALSO ADDED
SOME PATCHY FOG TO THIEF RIVER FALLS. REST OF THE AREA SEEING SOME
RETURN FLOW WITH SOUTH WIND. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY AIRMASS
WEDNESDAY SO CLOUDS FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. CU LIKELY VERY LIMITED OR
NONE...BEST CHC FOR CU IN MINNESOTA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...RIDDLE





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.