000
FXUS63 KFGF 240845
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE FA...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE FA LATER THIS MORNING. ANY
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A STABLE AIRMASS...WITH
DISSIPATING CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
COVER THIS PRECIP CHANCE WITH 20-30 POPS (FOLLOWING MAINLY THE
HRRR GUIDANCE)...AND WILL ADD MORE DETAIL WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVENING WILL BE DRY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT (LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT)
AS CONVECTION FROM THE WEST (INITIATED BY A COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH)
MOVES INTO THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THESE PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELL STORMS.
HOWEVER...A STRONG 850MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR OUR
SOUTHERN FA AT 06Z...THEN VEER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN BY
12Z. THUS...NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT
NOCTURNAL SEVERE STORMS. NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITY TYPE PRODUCTS
SHOW VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS PAST SUNSET. ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED.

GUIDANCE IS NOW QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT/SFC
TROUGH ON FRIDAY...MEANING THAT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE
THREAT IS LIKELY SHIFTED EAST OF THE FA (INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROPAGATE FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT COULD STILL
RESULT IN A BIT OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. COOL HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 7-10C RANGE.

OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...A RETURN TO AN
AMPLIFIED EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE IS
EXPECTED...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS. A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS TO NEAR SEASONABLE AVERAGES
WILL OCCUR. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN/INSTABILITY...DEPENDENT UPON ANY IMPULSE THAT MAY DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ON
THU. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER BY TUE EVENING...BUT COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH SO WON/T INCLUDE THUNDER...BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 24 HR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK