000
FXUS63 KFGF 191757
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1257 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Satellite showing some of the thicker cirrus thinning out over
parts of central ND into the RRV. Temperatures running a tad
higher than current so raised them a few more degrees. Mid 60s in
many areas in the central/nrn RRV.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Upper level ridge axis was over the Red River Valley and will
slowly shift northeast. Surface ridge on the east side of the
upper ridge will also shift northeast for today and tonight.
Surface ridge will provide another day of relatively dry
easterly flow. Precipitable water was under a quarter of an
inch.

Upper level jet was punching into KS and southern NE with
storms occurring on east side of the jet.

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over AZ.
Upper trough will move into the Northern Plains Sat and
Sun. Rain is expected to move into the far southern zones
Sat morning and move north across the area. Deformation
zone will set up over the area Sat and Sat night.

Will keep frost advisory going for early this morning for
essentially the northern half of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Monday to next Thursday night will see the below normal temperatures
continue to start the work week. Models in fair agreement with the
overall general synoptic pattern and will see minimal impactful
weather this next week. Large scale 500mb stacked system over
southern Ontario to start the week will continue the light rain
threat Monday and Tuesday. The clouds and a rather cool airmass will
keep temps in the upper 50s east and low 60s west. As the longwave
trough slides east NW flow aloft with western CONUS ridging will
allow the northern plains moderating temps Wednesday and Thursday.
Possible short wave in the NW flow on Wednesday could bring light
showers to parts of the area otherwise dry with temperatures warming
into the 70s west and upper 60s east for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

VFR anticipated thru 18z Saturday as high clouds continue to move
north. As rain advances north into SE ND/WC MN Saturday 12z-18z
period cloud ceilings will lower some into the lower end of VFR
range. Winds generally easterly nr 10 kts...though at times
variable early this aftn as high is close by.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...Riddle