Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 191451
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
951 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.UPDATE...

Issued at 951 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Fog has improved across the far southern and eastern forecast
area as expected. Therefore, only real update this morning was to
increase sky cover a bit with high clouds overtaking the area
currently and mid/lower clouds to fill in from the south and west
later this afternoon. Timing of precipitation still looks good to
enter southeastern North Dakota early afternoon and spread north
and east throughout the afternoon. Best chances still look to be
along and south of roughly Highway 2.

UPDATE Issued at 644 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Areas of fog and patchy dense fog continuing in west central
Minnesota will begin to improve over the next few hours. Adjusted
sky grids to account for high clouds streaming into southern zones
and tweaked temps for areas with calm winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 420 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Expect some patchy fog in parts of west central Minnesota from
Bemidji and Detroit Lakes to Fergus Falls and Elbow Lake this
morning. Cloud cover will gradually increase from south to north
today as a shortwave aloft approaches the Dakotas from the
Rockies. This disturbance will bring rain showers into southeast
North Dakota late this afternoon, spreading northward into the
I-94 corridor and perhaps as far north as US Highway 2. Rainfall
totals look to be less than a half of an inch with the greatest
amounts expected in counties along the South Dakota border.
Showers will gradually move out late tonight. Impacts look to be
minimal as the better forcing regimes are well to the south and
east near the primary sfc low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 420 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

As a second weak shortwave rushes through behind the upper low
Thursday and Thursday evening, areas along and north of US Highway 2
could see scattered light rain showers. Surface high pressure
develops and moves through late Thursday night through Friday night,
bringing a precipitation free period with light wind and much less
cloud cover. Expect high temperatures Thursday through Saturday
to reach the 50s, and perhaps even 60s on some locations Friday
and Saturday. Lows each night will drop into the 30s.

For Saturday through Tuesday, split flow continues across North
America. Longwave trough and longwave ridge over the eastern
Pacific and West Coast respectively retrograde a bit through the
period. Downstream flat longwave ridge becomes a low amplitude
longwave trough over the Great Plains.

The ECMWF and the GFS were in reasonable agreement through the
period however the ECMWF becomes a faster solution by the end of the
period. The ECMWF was trending a little faster over the last couple
model runs while the GFS was trending farther north. Will blend the
models.

High temperatures were decreased one to three degrees for all four
days...Sat through Tue from yesterdays forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)

Issued at 644 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

IFR/LIFR vsbys associated with fog expected for another few hours
in parts of west central Minnesota near KBJI. VFR conditions
expected through mid afternoon. High clouds expected to continue
streaming over the southern half of the forecast area this morning,
gradually building northward. Models suggest MVFR/IFR cigs
tonight and early Thursday as rain showers develop in the south.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lee
SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...BP



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