Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 192344
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP
PUSH THE SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MONTANA OUT INTO ND.
MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
SFC TROUGH. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING...AS WELL AS SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG OUT AHEAD OF IT...SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MANY OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RED RIVER VALLEY FROM 06 TO 08Z...WITH SOME VARIATION ON HOW FAR
NORTH OR SOUTH THE PRECIP EXTENDS. WILL KEEP SOME 20-30 POPS FOR
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOMORROW...WITH AT LEAST
THE NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES UNDER WESTERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. THERE IS SOME VARIATION BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST AND THE
GFS QUITE A BIT SLOWER. THE GFS HAS SLOWER PROGRESSION AND
DEVELOPS CONVECTION AS FAR WEST AS THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WHILE
THE NAM HAS PRECIP BARELY IN THE EASTERN CWA AND THE GEM AND ECMWF
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN. WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES GETTING TO AROUND
3000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 TO 40 KTS...SOME SEVERE IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON JUST A QUESTION OF HOW FAR WEST IT
WILL DEVELOP. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 20-50 POPS IN THE EASTERN TIER BUT
WILL LEAVE ANY SEVERE MENTION FOR NOW.

THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MANITOBA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE CWA.
WITH MOST OF THE GOOD MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CONVECTION POPPING ALONG THE FRONT SO
KEPT POPS PRETTY LOW FOR THAT PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING SOME PRECIP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. EXACT TIMING OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...AND THERE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH FROM SD INTO MN...WITH MODELS
CHURNING OUT PLENTY OF QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A OVERNIGHT MCS IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
BUT SOME PLACES SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THE
GFS AT LEAST HAS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE HOT ON ITS HEELS. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY COMING DOWN AND EVEN
COOLER FOR TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS RETURN TO THE TEENS C FROM THE
20S ON SUNDAY.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...500MB RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TO START OUT THE PERIOD. MODELS DISAGREE WITH
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TUE NIGHT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL AT THIS POINT DEPICTING ANY LIGHT PCPN BUT GUIDANCE
PCPN CHANCES SEEM TO FOLLOW THIS ROUTE. THE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
ON THU BUT IT ALSO STARTS TO GET SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FA LATER
THU INTO FRI WHICH WILL INCREASE PCPN CHANCES. THEN THE UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE FA ON SATURDAY KEEPING MORE PCPN CHANCES AROUND
ALTHOUGH THESE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE BETTER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE COLD POOL ALOFT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MENTIONED SHRA VCNTY AT SITES EXCEPT BJI
AS SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT AS AIRMASS CURRENTLY VERY STABLE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...VOELKER






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